Je Saylorova strategie v problémech? Treasury MicroStrategy dosáhl značky "pod vodou"! 📉
Pokles Bitcoinu o víkendu na 75 500 USD oficiálně posunul obrovský treasury MicroStrategy ($MSTR) do červených čísel. Poprvé za více než dva roky je největší korporátní držitel Bitcoinu na světě technicky "pod vodou", protože tržní cena klesla pod jejich průměrnou nákladovou základnu.
Zde je rozbor situace a proč by mohla být diskuse o "liquidaci" předčasná.
📊 Data: Kde se strategie nachází
• Celkové držení: 713 502 BTC (po čerstvém nákupu 855 BTC tento týden).
⏳ Bitcoin: The Pulse of the Halving Cycle (2026–2029)
The $BTC Bitcoin halving cycle is one of the most debated "laws" in finance. Critics often claim that as the market matures, the four-year cycle will eventually dampen or disappear. However, a decade of price action suggests otherwise. The rhythm hasn't just survived; it has consistently aligned with a specific mathematical heartbeat: Fibonacci Time Zones.
When we map major market pivots over the last ten years, they don't appear random. They respect these time windows with a precision that is becoming harder to dismiss as mere coincidence.
### The Roadmap: Projections for 2026–2029
According to the current Fibonacci-aligned model, we are entering a phase that could redefine long-term portfolios. If the historical structure holds, here is how the next few years may unfold:
• Nov 2026 – Jan 2027: The Cycle Low Cluster Rather than a final top, the model suggests we may see a "cycle low" or a major reset during this window. This would be the final flush-out for weak hands before the next massive leg up.
• Mid-2027: The Early Peak A recovery phase leading into a secondary "early peak," often characterized by renewed retail interest and the first wave of FOMO in the new cycle.
• 2028: The Expansion Phase This is where the supply shock from the 2028 halving begins to manifest. We typically see a sustained move higher as institutional accumulation meets a thinning exchange supply.
• Late 2029: The Major Cycle Peak The projected "grand finale" of this decade’s rhythm. This aligns with the blow-off top phases seen in previous cycles (2013, 2017, 2021).
### Structure Over Exact Dates
The most important takeaway isn't a specific day on the calendar; it’s the repetition of the time structure. Every cycle has its own "flavor"—different macro-economic conditions, different regulatory hurdles, and different levels of institutional adoption. Yet, the timing rhythm has remained remarkably consistent.
If this rhythm holds, the current market isn't at a final top. We are likely in a mid-cycle phase, navigating the "noise" before the structural expansion toward 2029. The Big Question:
Is the halving cycle still in total control, or will the 2026–2029 period be the first time in history that Bitcoin breaks its decade-long pattern? The chart speaks for itself. Look at the timing. Feel the rhythm.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry high risk. Always do your own research (DYOR) before trading.
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