Erik Solberg

Dnes je mnoho zemí nespokojených s tím, jak Spojené státy "šikanují" ostatní prostřednictvím sankcí, válek, cel & obchodních pravidel. Nicméně, navzdory svému obrovskému dluhu, zůstává USA nejsilnější zemí na světě. Některé důvody, proč je nikdo nemůže vyzvat.
1. Past na dolar
Většina světového obchodu probíhá v amerických dolarech. Pokud chcete koupit ropu, zlato nebo elektroniku, obvykle potřebujete dolary.
Ale USA ovládá globální bankovní "spínač." Pokud nějaká země nedodržuje pravidla USA, může je USA odříznout od světového měnového systému. To znemožňuje této zemi nakupovat nebo prodávat cokoliv na mezinárodní úrovni & Když k tomu dojde, jejich importy se zastaví, banky zamrznou a ceny explodují přes noc.

In the current market regime, most participants are blinded by the allure of upside volatility, often ignoring the mathematical certainty of tail risk. When we backtest $BTC since 2014 & $ETH since 2016, the data reveals a stark divergence between daily mean returns and the probability of portfolio ruin. While Bitcoin offers a modest daily mean return, its high standard deviation suggests that the "average" day is statistically unstable.

The real danger lies in the Expected Shortfall (ES). At a 99% confidence interval, our Monte Carlo models show that during extreme events, the average loss for ETH escalates to -20.20%. With historical minimum returns hitting -51.8% for BTC and -59.8% for ETH, it is clear that intraday liquidations can effortlessly bypass traditional stop-losses. In these scenarios, the "Buy the Dip" crowd and "Weak Hands" are nothing more than sacrificial exit liquidity for institutional algorithms.

Ultimately, the gap between a 29% pump and a 60% drawdown highlights the necessity of risk-adjusted returns over nominal gains. As we move toward 2026, survival will not be determined by conviction, but by who has stress-tested their portfolio against these fat-tail distributions.The market is designed to transfer wealth from the emotional "HODL" cult to the cold,data-driven elite. If you don't understand the math, you are the yield.
#TrumpNewTariffs #MacroAnalysis #BTCVSGOLD #Binance #WriteToEarnUpgrade

Markets operate as auctions. Buyers and sellers constantly negotiate value. When they agree, trading builds up. When they disagree, price moves fast.
Market Profile is the tool that helps you understand that process.

Let's discuss it in details.
Why Market Profile Matters More Than Price Action?
Candles/Price Action only show where price moved. Whereas, Market Profile shows acceptance, rejection & balance.

The Core Components of Market Profile:

Point of Control (POC) – The price with the most participation.Value Area (VA) – Where ~70% of trading occurred. This is fair value.
Tails & Thin Zones – Areas quickly rejected.
Together, these elements form a distribution curve. By studying them, We can read market acceptance, rejection, and balance. 
1. Single Distribution (Balanced Market)
A single distribution means the market is balanced, not trending.

It looks like a bell-shaped curve, where most trading happens in the middle. This shows buyers and sellers mostly agree on value for that session.
In this structure:
Most activity happens around the POC (the busiest price).There are tails on top and bottom, but they’re not extreme — meaning price was only lightly rejected at the edges.Buyers step in near the lower edge.Sellers step in near the upper edge.
No side is in control. So price moves up and down and often returns to the middle.
How to Trade It
Expect sideways/choppy market, fake-outs not breakouts.
Sell near the top, buy near the bottom.
Target the POC or middle of value.
Example: Imagine $ETH trades between $1,950 and $2,050 for much of a session, it stays in that range, with most volume/POC near $2,000.
Buy near bottom ($1,950), Sell near top ($2,050). Target POC ($2,000).
Avoid chasing strong moves — they usually come back in VA.
2.Double Distribution: Value Shift in Progress
A double distribution means the market is shifting value from one balanced area to another, it appears as two bell-shaped curves, showing price accepted value at two separate areas during the same session.

How This Forms?
The session usually starts in "balance" , but due to news event/ data release/ or any other catalyst price shift from one VA to other & once the hype of that event dies then price stays for a while in a new accepted profile.
Sideways → Short Term Trend → Sideways
How to Trade It
Expect moves between the two areas.The LVN/Single TPO's often acts as a fast-move zone.
Trade inside a value area, not the middle.If price accepts in one area → expect continuation.If price rejects → expect move back to the other area.
Example:
First VA: $1,980 – $2,020(Trade either in this area)
2nd VA: $2,080 – $2,120(or in this area)
Acceptance → continuation, rejection → return to other area.
3. Multiple Distribution: Unstable Value, Repeated Shifts
A multiple distribution means the market accepted value at several price areas. It appears as three or more bell curves, showing repeated shifts in value.
Price moved → paused → moved → paused → moved → paused.

Strong buying/selling, news, big participants, or liquidity shifts keep pushing price, so value keeps moving to new areas.
How to Trade It
Example: $1,900 → $1,980
→ $2,050 → $2,120
→$2,190 → $2,378
Trade with the direction of value shifts, not against them.
Also, Treat the most recent value area as:
Support if price is going upResistance if price is going down
Watch the thin gaps LVN/ Single TPOs between humps, price generally move fast there and continue the trend.
Conclusion
Price action alone only shows where price moved, not why it moved or where real value is. Candles can’t tell you which prices are accepted, rejected, or where big participants are active.
Market Profile fills that gap by showing:
Where buyers and sellers actually accept value (POC & Value Area)Where price was rejected quickly (tails & thin zones)
How balance shifts over time (single, double, multiple distributions)
But if you really want to take it to next level you should combine Market Profile with Order Flow, & you see the real-time actions behind the price:
Who’s buying or selling aggressivelyWhere liquidity clusters existWhere price is likely to pause, reverse, or continueSpot reversals before they appear on chartsAvoid chasing fake movesManage risk more effectively
TLDR; Price action shows the path, Market Profile shows value, and Order Flow shows the participants. Using all three gives a much clearer edge than price action alone.
#StrategyBTCPurchase #WriteToEarnUpgrade

1. Podle dat (sloučený kvantitativní & technický přehled) 📊

Spot Price & Levels 💰: $BTC se aktuálně obchoduje mezi $68,762 - $69,694.
Graf identifikuje (HVL) a Call odporový pivot na $70,000.
Čistá expozice (DEX/GEX) ⚖️: Čistý DEX zůstává hluboce negativní na -$3.59 miliardy, což naznačuje silnou směrovou "gravitaci" od tvůrců trhu.
Block Trade Flow 💹: Masivní příliv Call nákupů (35,655 kontraktů) vs Put nákupů (19,666 kontraktů). Velryby se agresivně pozicují na růstový pohyb.

Pokud jste aktivní v kryptoměnách od roku 2024 a dříve, pravděpodobně jste slyšeli o MANTRA a jeho tokenu, $OM. Ne proto, že by tiše vybudovalo něco revolučního, ale protože dodalo jeden z nejdramatičtějších cyklů vzestupu a pádu a nyní se snaží vstát z popela.
Rané dny: 2020-2023
Cesta MANTRA ve skutečnosti začala docela nenápadně. V roce 2020 byla spuštěna na Polkadotově RioChain jako obecná DeFi platforma bojující o pozornost na přeplněném trhu. Po mnoho let se $OM obchodovalo jako zapomenutý majetek, uvízlé mezi $0.02 a $0.15. K říjnu 2023 kleslo na přibližně $0.0173, což byla úroveň, která prakticky křičela

Právě teď je #Ethereum na kritickém křižovatce. Krátkodobý růst je na pořadu dne, ale celková struktura je stále MEDVĚDÍ. Pojďme to rozebrat 👇
1. Technická struktura: Zóna "Chycení likvidity":
Přijetí POC: Cena se neustále obchoduje pod úrovněmi Bodů kontroly (POC), což potvrzuje, že prodávající mají navrch.
Očekává se potenciální odraz k VAH (Hlavní oblast hodnoty) & do zóny nerovnováhy (přibližně 2 300 - 2 380 USD), aby se zachytila likvidita na vzestupu před pokračováním klesajícího trendu.
Úrovně 2 200 - 2 380 USD se shodují s Fib. zlatým poměrem (50%-61,8%), což by mohlo být rezistenční oblastí.

Trhy jsou dnes nervózní, 13. února 2026, když americká vláda zveřejňuje údaje o inflaci (CPI) za leden. Zatímco většina lidí se dívá pouze na jedno velké číslo, existují tři skryté věci, které skutečně řídí trh.
1. "Skryté" číslo inflace
Očekává se, že headline číslo klesne na 2,5 % (dolů z 2,7 %). To zní jako dobrá zpráva, ale odborníci mají obavy o "Core CPI." To je cena věcí jako oblečení a služby, kromě jídla a plynu. Banky jako JP Morgan a Goldman Sachs očekávají, že to zůstane "sticky" kolem 0,34 % na měsíc. Pokud toto číslo neklesne, znamená to, že inflace skutečně nezmizela, a Federální rezervní systém pravděpodobně udrží úrokové sazby vyšší po delší dobu.

[WASHINGTON/TEHRAN — FEB 12, 2026] – The geopolitical floor just dropped. After a grueling three-hour closed-door session at the White House, President Donald Trump and PM Benjamin Netanyahu have emerged with no definitive agreement on Iran.
For the crypto markets, this "inconclusive" result is the ultimate red flag. While the masses are sleeping, the smart money is already positioning for a massive volatility spike.
1. The "Midnight Hammer" Threat: History is About to Repeat
In a chilling post on Truth Social today, Trump explicitly reminded Tehran of Operation Midnight Hammer—the June 2025 stealth strikes that decimated Iran’s nuclear core.
"Last time Iran decided they were better off not making a Deal, they were hit with Midnight Hammer. It did not work well for them. Hopefully, this time they will be more reasonable." — Donald Trump
$TRUMP isn't just bluffing; he’s setting the stage for a 2026 sequel. When the "Hammer" drops, liquidations follow. In 2025, the crypto market saw a $20 Billion wipeout in under 2 hours.
2. The $70,000 Trap: Why the Support is Fragile
Bitcoin is currently hugging the $70,000 psychological level, but the sentiment is turning "Extreme Bearish."
Technical analysts warn that if negotiations in Oman (Round 2) fail this weekend, BTC could see a flash crash to $60,000 or lower.
The "Armada" Factor: The US has moved a massive naval armada, including the USS Abraham Lincoln, into the region. A single kinetic "accident" in the Strait of Hormuz will send the DXY (Dollar Index) skyrocketing, sucking the life out of risk assets like BTC and ETH.
3. Iran’s Secret Weapon: The Crypto Squeeze
Reports indicate that the IRGC now controls nearly 50% of Iran’s crypto ecosystem. As the US Treasury tightens the noose on "Sanction Evasion," Binance users should be wary of sudden regulatory "Black Swan" events or exchange-specific FUD that could freeze liquidity during a conflict.
🛡️ YOUR 48-HOUR SURVIVAL PLAN
​Watch the Omani Mediators: Any "walk-out" by Iranian negotiator Abbas Araghchi is your signal to move to USDC/USDT​Hedge with Gold/Stables: The "Board of Peace" initiative by Netanyahu is a diplomatic shield, but the military buildup suggests the shield is thin.
Instead of reacting emotionally: Know your liquidation levels. Respect volatility expansion, Avoid oversized directional bets.Because the real danger isn’t war headlines.It’s being overleveraged when volatility explodes.
THE BOTTOM LINE:
Trump wants a "Grand Bargain," but Netanyahu is demanding a "Total Reset" of Iran’s missile power. With Iran refusing to budge on its ballistic arsenal, the diplomatic path is narrowing.
The Hammer is raised. Don't be under it when it falls.
$TRUMP $AVNT #CZAMAonBinanceSquare #USIranStandoff #eth #Binance #WhaleDeRiskETH