C I R U S

$BTC ztratil úroveň 90 000 dolarů poté, co zaznamenal největší týdenní odlivy z Bitcoin ETF od listopadu. To nebyla malá událost. Když ETF zažívají silné odlivy, znamená to, že velcí investoři snižují expozici. Ten prodejní tlak stlačil Bitcoin pod důležitou psychologickou a technickou úroveň.

Po tomto vyprázdnění se Bitcoin stabilizoval. Ale stabilizace neznamená sílu. Právě teď se Bitcoin pohybuje v rámci určitého rozmezí. Nezvýšil se a ani se zcela nezhroutil. To je klasický znak nejistoty.

Stop pretending you need to pick one perp DEX and marry it.
If you actually believe on-chain perpetuals are structurally eating centralized derivatives, then the real question isn’t which one wins forever — it’s how to position across the category while understanding the differences in revenue design, tokenomics, and cap tables.
This is where $HYPE and $LIT become interesting.
Not as memes.
Not as tribal bets.
But as two different expressions of the same macro thesis.
The Core Thesis: On-Chain Perps Are Not Cyclical — They’re Structural
CeFi perps dominate today.
But:
Traders want self-custody.Liquidity is migrating on-chain.Incentive wars are compressing spreads.Infrastructure is maturing fast.
This isn’t a trend. It’s migration.
The category is becoming multi-billion-dollar infrastructure.
Now let’s break the two dominant plays.
$HYPE — The Revenue Machine
Hyperliquid is printing.
At scale.
~99% of trading fees are routed into the Assistance Fund, which programmatically buys back $HYPE.
That means something very simple:
Protocol revenue ≈ holder revenue.
No vague promises.
No abstract “future utility.”
Real flow → mechanical buy pressure.
Over similar windows where competitors pulled ~$1–2M in fees, Hyperliquid was doing ~$14M.
That matters.
But nothing is perfect.
Only ~34% circulating.Heavy FDV.Scheduled unlocks ahead.
Still, the cap table is relatively clean compared to many VC-heavy tokens.
$HYPE trades at a premium because it has real fee density and direct value capture.
It’s the category leader.

$LIT — The Infra Optionality Bet
Now contrast that with Lighter.
At peak launch window, Lighter pushed ~$200B in 30-day volume — briefly overtaking Hyperliquid.
But here’s the catch:
They used a zero-fee strategy to bootstrap volume.
Revenue was materially lower.
~$1.7M vs Hyperliquid’s ~$14M over comparable periods.
So what is $LIT?
It’s not a fee machine — yet.
It’s:
An infrastructure betA monetization optionality playA challenger scaling through incentives
Tokenomics are heavier:
50% allocated to team + VCsReal insider overhang riskTrades at a discount on revenue multiples
That discount exists for a reason.
But that’s also where upside lives — if share expands without destroying margins.

Why Hold Both?
Because this is a rotating battlefield.
Fee wars.
Liquidity mining.
Incentive flips.
User migration month-to-month.
The top dog can change based on:
Incentive structureFunding dynamicsLiquidity programsMarket volatility
Holding both isn’t indecision.
It’s acknowledging that:
→ The category can win without one permanently killing the other.
→ Revenue leader captures premium flows.
→ Discount challenger captures multiple expansion.
This is barbell positioning inside a single thesis.

The Real Risk
Let’s be honest.
This trade is highly correlated.
If:
Macro rugsLeverage appetite diesOn-chain activity slows
Both tokens go to goblin town together.
This isn’t hedging against collapse.
It’s spreading exposure across execution risk.
What This Combo Actually Captures
If the on-chain perps thesis holds, the pairing captures:
Revenue compounding (HYPE)Multiple expansion (LIT)Rotation flowsIncentive cycle flipsArchitectural divergence
Premium category winner + discounted challenger.
Different tech stacks.
Different cap tables.
Same structural tailwind.
Final Thought
You don’t need to force a winner in a market that’s still forming.
If on-chain perps become the default derivatives layer of crypto, there will likely be multiple multi-billion-dollar protocols.
The real bet isn’t HYPE vs LIT.
It’s whether decentralized derivatives continue to absorb liquidity from centralized venues.
If they do, this isn’t mid-curve diversification.
It’s strategic positioning.
Lighterliquid.

#hype $LIT
#JaneStreet10AMDump #Hyperliquid

Myslel jsem si, že budoucnost AI bude jednoduše o chytřejších modelech. Větších datových sadách. Lepším tréninku. Vyšší přesnosti. To se zdálo jako přirozený směr - jen pokračovat v zlepšování inteligence a všechno ostatní se vyřeší samo.
Ale čím víc jsem používal AI v reálných situacích, tím víc jsem si všiml něčeho nepříjemného.
Problém nebyla inteligence.
Byla to důvěra.

AI může psát s jistotou. Může jasně vysvětlit složité myšlenky. Někdy zní dokonce jistěji než lidské odborníky. Přesto za touto jistotou existují stále chvíle, kdy je odpověď špatná - ne mírně špatná, ale zásadně nesprávná. A nejnebezpečnější částí je, že většina uživatelů si toho okamžitě nevšimne.