Do konce roku 2025 podporují trh tři hlavní signály:
• M2 se stále rozšiřuje → Mezinárodní likvidita zůstává silná • Průlom RUT (Russell 2000) → Návrat sentimentu risk-on se projevuje agresivně • Obnova a akumulace Total3 → Základ pro sezónu altcoinů zůstává zachován. Ale vyžaduje trpělivost a pozornost by měla být zaměřena na nejlepších 100 mincí, zejména těch spojených s reálnými aktivy.
📌 Čtvrtletní pohled na rok 2026
• Q1/2026: BTC v fázi akumulace – silná makrovolatilita, zatímco trh připravuje trend Leden: 84 000 $ – 98 000 $ Únor: 92 000 $ – 110 000 $ Březen: 108 000 $ – 118 000 $
• Q2/2026: Vysoká pravděpodobnost silného průlomu BTC – právě v této době mohou altcoiny začít urychlovat → Podrobnosti budou aktualizovány v komentářích
• Q3/2026: Pokud bude likvidita stále proudit → potvrzení sezóny altcoinů, kapitál se přesouvá z BTC do altcoinů → Podrobnosti budou aktualizovány v komentářích
• Q4/2026: Buď pokračování růstu nebo fáze korekce – záleží na síle likvidity a měnové politice → BTC oficiálně dosáhne 200 000 $
🔥 Je možná ještě sezóna altcoinů? → Ano. Ale POUZE pokud: 1️⃣ BTC udrží trvale rostoucí trend 2️⃣ Dominance BTC klesne 3️⃣ Likvidita (M2) bude stále rostoucí 4️⃣ RUT zůstane silně „risk-on“
👉 Rok 2026 nemusí být jen příběhem Bitcoinu – mohl by být rokem chytré alokace kapitálu do altcoinů ve správný čas. 👉 A ne, scénář, že by BTC klesl zpět na 70 000 $, už není na stole.
poznámka : $SEI Blockchain na mobilní aplikaci web3 na telefonu android.
BTC Dominance rising is not bearish for alts. It’s a liquidity warning
BTC Dominance Is Not a Threat — It’s a Warning Most traders misunderstand BTC Dominance.They see it rising and assume: “Altcoins are dead.” That’s not what the market is saying. BTC Dominance rises when liquidity is defensive, not when opportunity disappears. This is a late-cycle market, not an expansion phase In late-cycle conditions: Geopolitical risk increasesMonetary policy becomes reactiveLiquidity tightens unevenlyVolatility is suppressed, then released violently Capital does not seek growth first. It seeks survival. That is why Bitcoin absorbs flows. BTC here is not a risk asset. It is a liquidity shelter. Why Altcoin Season Hasn’t Started (Yet) Altcoin season is not triggered by: HopeGood newsNarrativesSocial engagement*Altcoin season starts with excess liquidity.Right now:Liquidity is concentrated, not distributedRisk appetite is selectiveCapital prefers reversibility That’s why most alt rallies feel: ShallowShort-livedEasy to fade* These are not trends - They are liquidity tests. The Rotation Everyone Misses Market cycles don’t rotate randomly. They follow a strict hierarchy: BTC absorbs uncertaintyBTC Dominance peaksInfrastructure (Infra) leads rotationApplications followMemes mark the emotional top Retail waits for step 4. Institutions position at step 2–3. Right now, we are still between step 1 and 2. Why Infrastructure Matters Now Infrastructure does not outperform during BTC dominance. It accumulates quietly. Infra matters because it: Benefits from future liquidity, not current hypeRepresents system-level convictionSurvives multiple cycles Infra is not a trade - It’s a position. Capital moves into infra before narratives turn bullish — never after. The Image Tells the Same Story The chaos in the image — politics, war, machines, money — points to one thing: A world becoming: More complexMore automatedMore fragile In such systems, value concentrates into Neutral money (BTC)Foundational systems (Infra) Not into speculation. The Real Risk Right Now The biggest risk is not missing altseason.The real risk is: Overtrading chopChasing false breakoutsMistaking liquidity noise for trendLate-cycle markets punish impatience. Final Takeaway This is not a market to predict. It’s a market to position. BTC = capital preservationInfra = early rotation exposureAlts = patience, not aggressionWhen BTC Dominance finally turns,structure will move first — not hype.And by then, positioning will matter more than timing.
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BTC Dominance is rising 📈 When dominance moves up, liquidity flows back to BTC — Altcoins tend to bleed.
⚠️ For Altcoin traders: • Stay defensive, avoid over-leverage • Only take high-conviction setups with strong volume & narrative • Be careful with short-term pumps
💡 A real Altseason usually starts when BTC.D tops and weakens.
Capital preservation > profits. Opportunities never disappear — capital does. $BTC
Bitcoin is currently consolidating inside a clear range between $90.2K and $91.3K after being strongly rejected from $92.5K. This price action suggests distribution rather than accumulation at this stage.
On the 4H timeframe, BTC remains below the MA50, indicating that the broader momentum is still weak. Moving averages are compressed, showing a lack of directional conviction. RSI is hovering below neutral, leaving room for further downside liquidity grabs.
On 1H and 15M, multiple attempts to reclaim the top of the range have failed with declining volume, a classic sign of buyer exhaustion. The sharp rejection from $92.5K reinforces the idea that higher prices are currently being sold into by larger players.
Key takeaway: BTC is not ready for a clean breakout yet. A real breakout only becomes valid with: • A strong 1H close above $91.3K • Noticeable volume expansion • Successful retest holding above the range
Until then, this remains a market maker range, where liquidity is hunted on both sides. Expect fake breakouts and stop hunts before any decisive move.
Bitcoin is currently consolidating inside a clear range between $90.2K and $91.3K after being strongly rejected from $92.5K. This price action suggests distribution rather than accumulation at this stage.
On the 4H timeframe, BTC remains below the MA50, indicating that the broader momentum is still weak. Moving averages are compressed, showing a lack of directional conviction. RSI is hovering below neutral, leaving room for further downside liquidity grabs.
On 1H and 15M, multiple attempts to reclaim the top of the range have failed with declining volume, a classic sign of buyer exhaustion. The sharp rejection from $92.5K reinforces the idea that higher prices are currently being sold into by larger players.
Key takeaway: BTC is not ready for a clean breakout yet. A real breakout only becomes valid with: • A strong 1H close above $91.3K • Noticeable volume expansion • Successful retest holding above the range
Until then, this remains a market maker range, where liquidity is hunted on both sides. Expect fake breakouts and stop hunts before any decisive move.
📌 Patience beats prediction in a boxed market.$BTC
Bitcoin isn’t moving higher because of hype — it’s moving because of liquidity.
Bitcoin Outlook: Why the Market Structure Still Favors Further Upside Despite growing short-term skepticism, current market structure suggests that Bitcoin remains positioned for further upside rather than a deep retracement. 1. Liquidity Distribution Favors Higher Prices Recent liquidation data shows a clear imbalance in liquidity placement. Downside liquidity below current price has thinned considerably, particularly around previously attractive levels near the high-80k range. This indicates that weak longs have largely been flushed, reducing the incentive for market makers to push price significantly lower. In contrast, short-side liquidity is stacking aggressively above current levels. Large clusters of short liquidation are visible from the mid-90k range extending above 100k, creating a strong liquidity magnet to the upside. In markets driven by leverage, price typically seeks the path of maximum liquidity extraction — and that path currently points higher. 2. Absence of Panic Selling Confirms Structural Strength Despite macro uncertainty and heightened news sensitivity, Bitcoin has not experienced panic-driven sell pressure. Volatility remains controlled, and price behavior suggests absorption rather than distribution This type of price action is characteristic of accumulation phases, where stronger hands quietly absorb supply while leverage is repositioned on the wrong side of the market.
3. Failed Bearish Follow-Through Repeated attempts to push Bitcoin lower have resulted in shallow pullbacks rather than sustained breakdowns. Each downside move has been met with immediate buying interest, signaling that sellers lack conviction and that downside momentum is weakening. When bearish narratives fail to translate into lower prices, it often precedes continuation to the upside. 4. Market Maker Incentives Align with a Higher Expansion From a market microstructure perspective, the current environment favors an upside expansion: Downside liquidity is limitedUpside liquidation rewards are significantly largerA short squeeze scenario offers higher efficiency for capital deployment This makes higher prices a more rational outcome in the near term. Conclusion Bitcoin does not currently exhibit the conditions required for a sustained correction. With downside liquidity largely exhausted and short positioning building above price, the market remains structurally biased toward further upside. Any short-term pullbacks should be viewed as tactical liquidity resets rather than trend reversals. In leveraged markets, price does not move to where traders expect — it moves to where liquidity is. And for now, liquidity is above.$BTC