Erik Solberg

Date: January 8, 2026
Subject: BTC Strategic Outlook – Week 2
Classification: Confidential / Hedge Fund Strategy.
Executive Summary
Following the aggressive price discovery seen in late 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a sophisticated Distribution Phase. While retail sentiment remains buoyed by the $100,000 narrative, our internal metrics—specifically institutional positioning and derivatives architecture—suggest a tactical retracement is imminent. We are currently observing a divergence between rising Open Interest and stagnant price action, a classic precursor to a deleveraging event.
I. Institutional Positioning: The COT Breakdown
The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) data reveals a cooling of conviction among Asset Managers. While they maintain a net-long bias, we have observed a 4.2% reduction in exposure near the $94,000 handle.
In contrast, Leveraged Funds have increased their net-short positions to record levels. This is not necessarily a directional bet against Bitcoin, but a massive Basis Trade expansion—arbitraging the spot ETFs against futures premiums. This institutional "selling" creates a formidable ceiling; until these short positions are rolled or covered, $94,000 remains a structural barrier.
II. Derivatives Architecture: Liquidity Hunts and Max Pain
The "plumbing" of the market suggests a buildup of fragile leverage:
The Liquidity Cluster: Our Heatmap analysis identifies a massive concentration of "Long Liquidations" resting between $88,500 and $89,200. In a low-volatility environment, the market typically gravitates toward these pockets of liquidity to "flush" the system before any meaningful continuation.
Options Gamma & Max Pain: The January 16th expiry has a Max Pain point of $91,000. With the Put/Call ratio sitting at 0.65, retail is heavily skewed toward upside calls. Market makers, to remain delta-neutral, are incentivized to keep the price pinned near $91,000 or lower to ensure these options expire worthless.
Perpetual Funding: While funding rates are not yet "hyper-bullish" (neutral at +0.01%), the rising Open Interest ($34.8B) on flat price action indicates that "Limit Sellers" are absorbing every "Market Buy" order.
III. Stablecoin Dynamics: The Exhaustion of "Dry Powder"
From a treasury perspective, USDT Dominance (USDT.D) has reached an oversold floor on the Daily RSI. This confirms that the majority of deployable capital has already been converted into risk assets.
The Inversion: We are now seeing the initial stages of a dominance bounce. As capital rotates out of volatile Alts and back into Stables, we expect a momentary vacuum in buy-side support for $BTC .
IV. Tactical Verdict & Strategy
The current setup is a Bull Trap until proven otherwise. We view any spike into the $93,000 - $93,800 range as a "Liquidity Exit" rather than a breakout.
Key Technical Pillars:
Primary Resistance: $94,500 (Institutional Sell Wall).
Immediate Support: $89,800 (Options Max Pain).
Target Re-entry Zone: $87,500 - $89,000 (Liquidation Hunt Zone).
Strategic Recommendation:
We are maintaining a Neutral-to-Bearish stance for the next 72–96 hours. We advise against chasing breakouts in this high-OI environment. Our preference is to wait for the inevitable "Long Flush" toward the $89k region to reload spot positions.
Watch Item: Monitor the CLARITY Act review on Jan 15; regulatory clarity is the only fundamental catalyst capable of overstepping the current technical distribution.
#CPIWatch #USJobsData #WriteToEarnUpgrade

​A mysterious bond trader (or institution) has placed a massive wager on the direction of US interest rates just weeks before the Federal Reserve's January 28 policy meeting.
​1. The Scale of the Trade
​Volume: 200,000 contracts for the January 2026 Fed Funds futures.​The Record: This shattered the previous record of 84,000 contracts set in late 2025. To put this in perspective, the average daily volume for these contracts is usually around 495,000—meaning this single trade represented nearly half of a typical day's entire market activity.​The Risk (DV01): The trade carries a risk of approximately $8.3 million per basis point (0.01%) move. If interest rate expectations shift by just 0.10%, the value of this position would swing by over $80 million.
​2. What is the Trader Betting On?
​Market reports indicate this was a "sell" trade. In the world of Fed Funds futures, selling (shorting) the contract is a bet that interest rates will stay higher than currently expected or that planned rate cuts will be canceled.
​The Goal: The trader likely believes that the Federal Reserve will be more "hawkish" (keep rates high) due to strong economic data or sticky inflation.​The Timing: The trade was placed just days before the release of the crucial US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. If the jobs report is stronger than expected, it gives the Fed a reason not to cut rates, which would make this trade highly profitable.
​3. Why Does This Matter?
​When a single player moves this much money, it creates a "signal" in the market. It suggests that a major institutional player (like a massive hedge fund or a global bank) has high confidence that the market is currently "mispricing" what the Fed will do in late January.
Key takeaway: This isn't just a trade; it's a massive statement of conviction that US interest rates are not going to drop as fast as people think.

#FedInterestRate #FedRateCutWatch #USJobsData #CPIWatch

Özlərini “futures ticarətçiləri” adlandıran insanların əksəriyyəti ticarətçi deyil — onlar sadəcə xətləri çəkirlər, təxmin edirlər və likvidasiya olunurlar.
Əgər perplərdə sağ qalmaq istəyirsinizsə, bu əsaslar "SEÇİMƏDİR"— onlar yalnız "ƏN AZ"dır.
1. Makro Həqiqi Şefdir — Kripto Yalnız Reaksiya Verir
Bazarlarda hərəkət olur, çünki qlobal likvidlik genişlənir və ya daralır. Və bu likvidlik aşağıdakılarla formalaşır:
ABŞ Mərkəzi Bankı (faizlər, QT/QE, balans hesabatı)
ABŞ Xəzinəsi (buraxılış, TGA axınları, çeklər vs istiqrazlar)
İstiqraz bazarı (real gəlirlər, əyri forması)

Federallar Ehtiyatı 25 bps faiz endirimi etdi, federal fondların hədəf aralığını 3.50–3.75% səviyyəsinə endirdi.
Bazarlar demək olar ki, reaksiya vermədi - çünki bu addım tamamilə elan edilməzdən əvvəl qiymətləndirilmişdi. Daha böyük 50 bps endirimi qısa müddətli risk rallysini tetikleyərdi, amma Fed gözləntilərlə uyğun qaldı, buna görə də heç bir sürpriz premiumu olmadı.
İnstitusional treyderlər bu həftələri əvvəlcədən başa düşdülər. Daha vacib olanı, onlar pərakəndə treyderlərin necə düşündüyünü əslində başa düşürlər - emosional tetikleyicilər, şamlarla obsesyon və başlıqlara gözlənilən həddindən artıq reaksiya.