Loise Yamada jYIV

Many new tokens generate buzz with promises of massive returns, but a few simple calculations can help you determine if those claims are grounded in reality. Let's use Notcoin (NOT) as an example to see how this works.
1️⃣ Find the Circulating Supply
The first step is to determine how many tokens are currently in circulation. This figure is crucial because it dictates the total value of the project at a given price.
Let's say a hypothetical token has 1 trillion tokens in circulation. If it were to reach a price of $0.0001 per token, its market capitalization would be:
1,000,000,000,000 tokens × 0.0001/𝑡o𝑘𝑒𝑛=∗∗0.0001/token=∗∗100,000,000**
Now, if the circulating supply were much larger, say 100 trillion tokens, that same $0.0001 price would result in a significantly larger market cap:
100,000,000,000,000 tokens × 0.0001/𝑡𝑜𝑘𝑒𝑛=∗∗0.0001/token=∗∗10,000,000,000**
2 Compare Its Market Cap to Established Coins
Once you have the potential market cap, compare it to well-known cryptocurrencies to gauge its feasibility. As of mid-2024, the approximate market caps of major players are:
Bitcoin (BTC): Fluctuates around $1 trillion.
BNB: Approximately
80–80–90 billion.
For a new or meme-based token, reaching a $10 billion market cap is exceptionally ambitious, though not entirely impossible. It would require the project to become one of the top cryptocurrencies in the world.
3️⃣ Watch for Critical Red Flags
Beyond the numbers, be mindful of common warning signs that can undermine a project's long-term viability:
Unsupported Celebrity Endorsements: Always verify claims of celebrity involvement through official social media accounts, interviews, or videos.
Lack of Security Audits: A missing contract audit or unlocked liquidity can expose investors to risks like "rug-pulls," where developers abandon the project and run off with the funds.
Hype Without Utility: If a token's growth is fueled solely by social media hype without a clear use case or underlying value, it is likely to collapse once the excitement fades.
💡 Key Takeaway
The core principle is simple: Circulating Supply × Price Target = Market Cap.
This formula allows you to cut through the hype and assess whether a token's price target is realistic. If the resulting market cap is astronomically high, you are essentially betting on that token to outperform thousands of other projects and secure a top spot in the crypto ecosystem—a far more challenging feat than promoters often suggest.
By applying this analytical approach, you can better evaluate the potential of projects like Notcoin and make more informed investment decisions.