ScalpingX TG Channel

📊 WIN RATE & MARKET SENTIMENT (FGI) ANALYSIS — updated through 2026-01-12

Daily win-rate data from the scalping community continues to show a very weak relationship between FGI and win rate, leaning slightly negative (r ≈ -0.19). Win rate does not move with FGI in a linear way; the more noticeable differences mainly show up when FGI enters extreme zones—especially on the high-greed side.

🔍 Quick interpretation

Extreme Fear (<20) remains the band with the highest average win rate. The sample size has grown versus earlier reads, but it’s still small relative to other bands—better as directional context than a primary decision driver.

Fear (20–<40) continues to outperform the overall average.

Neutral (40–<60) stays around the average zone.

Greed (60–<80) shows no clear improvement versus the average.

Extreme Greed (≥80) remains the lowest-performing band across all groups.

📉 Average win rate by FGI band (with number of days)

🤑 Extreme Greed (≥80): 40.52% — n=25 (lowest)

😃 Greed (60–<80): 44.92% — n=214

😐 Neutral (40–<60): 45.32% — n=133

😟 Fear (20–<40): 46.71% — n=163

😨 Extreme Fear (<20): 47.09% — n=24

Share of days beating the overall average win rate (45.43%) by band:

Extreme Greed 12.00% • Greed 41.59% • Neutral 47.37% • Fear 57.06% • Extreme Fear 58.33%.

📈 Implications for scalping

➤ FGI ≥80: consider lowering TP expectations, tightening risk controls, and avoiding aggressive profit extension during fast volatility.

➤ FGI 20–<80: keep R:R discipline and execution rules; since Fear/Neutral/Greed performance gaps are not large, major strategy shifts are often unnecessary.

➤ FGI <20: the sample is improving but still limited; treat it as a statistically friendlier context, while keeping the focus on trade management, drawdown control, and system adherence.

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Update 2026-01-12, community-wide trading data:

🔹Average win rate: 45.43%

🔹Highest win rate day: 2026-01-12 at 72.82%. Lowest win rate day: 2025-03-28 at 29.38%

🔹Best weekday by average win rate: Saturday at 46.10%. Worst weekday: Monday at 44.95%

🔹Best 7-day average win rate period: ending 2025-07-22 at 56.98%. Worst 7-day period: ending 2025-03-12 at 36.64%

🔹Days above average win rate: 262. Days at or below average win rate: 297

🔹Days with win rate above 50%: 111. Days with win rate from 40%–50%: 349. Days with win rate below 40%: 99

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$RLS - Mcap 13.65M$ - 99%/ 71.5K votes Bullish

SC02 M1 - pending Short order. Entry lies within HVN + meets positive simplification with 3 previously profitable consecutive Short orders, estimated stop-loss around 1.20%. The downtrend is in the 403rd cycle, amplitude −11.34%.

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$DBR - Mcap 35.93M$ - 88%/ 24.5K votes Bullish

SC02 M5 - pending Long order. Entry lies within LVN + not affected by any weak zone, estimated stop-loss around 0.25%. The uptrend is in the 116th cycle, amplitude 1.29%.

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The upcoming 50-token unlock schedule, personally, I am only interested in trading Futures when it is a Cliff Unlock event and when the unlock volume is greater than 25% of the daily trading volume. If you are focused on long-term investing, pay attention so you can optimize your entry points better after each unlock.

Currently, there are 11 unlock events worth noting, with a high unlock volume compared to the daily trading volume:

$STRK - Unlock/24h Vol = 31.71% - Mcap 410.96M$ - 69%/ 50K votes Bullish

$DBR - Unlock/24h Vol = 205.89% - Mcap 35.66M$ - 88%/ 24.5K votes Bullish

$ZK - Unlock/24h Vol = 29.22% - Mcap 357.25M$ - 82%/ 50.8K votes Bullish

$SOLV - Unlock/24h Vol = 49.05% - Mcap 18.2M$ - 86%/ 39K votes Bullish

$TRUMP - Unlock/24h Vol = 127.86% - Mcap 1.07B$ - 64%/ 1.1M votes Bullish

$YZY - Unlock/24h Vol = 371.67% - Mcap 107.58M$ - 29%/ 3.8K votes Bullish

$ONDO - Unlock/24h Vol = 1427.22% - Mcap 1.24B$ - 85%/ 169.5K votes Bullish

$ZKJ - Unlock/24h Vol = 26.16% - Mcap 23.26M$ - 76%/ 10.4K votes Bullish

$ZRO - Unlock/24h Vol = 166.65% - Mcap 364.45M$ - 86%/ 22.6K votes Bullish

$PLUME - Unlock/24h Vol = 244.90% - Mcap 53.27M$ - 86%/ 28.7K votes Bullish

$RIVER - Unlock/24h Vol = 57.89% - Mcap 372.93M$ - 66%/ 3.4K votes Bullish

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$XCN - Mcap 345M$ - 89%/ 119K votes Bullish

SC02 M5 - pending Long order. Entry lies within LVN + not affected by any weak zone, estimated stop-loss around 2.80%. The uptrend is in the 152nd cycle, amplitude 21.17%.

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$IP - Mcap 840.29M$ - 67%/ 26.8K votes Bullish

SC02 M5 - pending Long order. Entry lies within HVN + not affected by any weak zone, estimated stop-loss around 3.30%. The uptrend is in the 265th cycle, amplitude 27.23%.

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$VVV - Mcap 144.98M$ - 81%/ 10.3K votes Bullish

SC02 M5 - pending Long order. Entry lies within LVN + not affected by any weak zone, estimated stop-loss around 4.50%. The uptrend is in the 216th cycle, amplitude 33.63%.

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$DEEP - Mcap 264.48M$ - 88%/ 45.7K votes Bullish

SC02 M5 - pending Long order. Entry lies within LVN + not affected by any weak zone, estimated stop-loss around 2.28%. The uptrend is in the 144th cycle, amplitude 15.98%.

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$ULTIMA - Mcap 260.47M$ - 89%/ 104.3K votes Bullish

SC02 M1 - pending Long order. Entry lies within LVN + not affected by any weak zone, estimated stop-loss around 2.12%. The uptrend is in the 166th cycle, amplitude 13.67%.

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$HYPER - Mcap 33.16M$ - 79%/ 7K votes Bullish

SC02 M1 - pending Short order. Entry lies within HVN + meets positive simplification with a previously profitable Short order, estimated stop-loss around 0.80%. The downtrend is in the 78th cycle, amplitude −4.06%.

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$ETH - Mcap 375.32B$ - 82%/ 2.1M votes Bullish

SC02 M1 - pending Long order. Entry lies within LVN + meets positive simplification with a previously profitable Long order, estimated stop-loss around 0.10%. The uptrend is in the 64th cycle, amplitude 0.41%.

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$GUN - Mcap 33.34M$ - 83%/ 10.5K votes Bullish

SC02 M5 - pending Short order. Entry lies within HVN + not affected by any weak zone, estimated stop-loss around 2.59%. The downtrend is in the 162nd cycle, amplitude −15.45%.

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$US - Mcap 15.91M$ - 86%/ 780 votes Bullish

SC02 M15 - Long order has been triggered, no meaningful profit yet. Entry lies within LVN + not affected by any weak zone, stop-loss 4.17%. The uptrend has lasted 228 cycles, amplitude 35.72%.

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$ZAMA

SC02 M5 - pending Short order. Entry lies within HVN + meets positive simplification with a previously profitable Short order, estimated stop-loss around 2.53%. The downtrend is in the 234th cycle, amplitude −18.83%.

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$CHZ - Mcap 503.24M$ - 84%/ 116.1K votes Bullish

SC02 M5 - pending Long order. Entry lies within HVN + not affected by any weak zone, estimated stop-loss around 2.26%. The uptrend is in the 217th cycle, amplitude 16.67%.

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$POL - Mcap 1.89B$ - 82%/ 831.1K votes Bullish

SC02 M15 - pending Long order. Entry lies within HVN + not affected by any weak zone, estimated stop-loss around 4.16%. The uptrend is in the 255th cycle, amplitude 46.60%.

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$ID - Mcap 101.27M$ - 77%/ 25.4K votes Bullish

SC02 M1 - pending Short order. Entry lies within HVN + not affected by any weak zone, estimated stop-loss around 0.77%. The downtrend is in the 199th cycle, amplitude −7.96%.

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$pippin - Mcap 346.29M$ - 72%/ 28.6K votes Bullish

SC02 M1 - pending Short order. Entry lies within HVN + not affected by any weak zone, estimated stop-loss around 2.40%. The downtrend is in the 316th cycle, amplitude −17.73%.

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$ZEC - Mcap 6.21B$ - 71%/ 142.6K votes Bullish

SC02 M15 - pending Short order. Entry lies within HVN + meets positive simplification with a previously profitable Short order, estimated stop-loss around 3.10%. The downtrend is in the 171st cycle, amplitude −19.69%.

#TradingSetup #CryptoInsights