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Binance Research argues that the crypto market is moving through a structural transition, shifting away from short-term, retail-driven momentum trading toward a phase increasingly shaped by institutional capital and long-term strategic allocation. Despite a weak end to 2025 for digital assets, the firm says underlying market dynamics suggest a more mature adoption cycle is taking hold.
According to the report, the approval of US spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 marked the beginning of a second wave of institutional adoption. This phase is defined by deeper participation from traditional financial institutions, which are no longer acting solely as distribution channels but are beginning to originate crypto investment products themselves. Recent ETF filings by Morgan Stanley for Bitcoin and Solana are cited as clear evidence of this shift, potentially pressuring rivals such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan to follow.
Binance Research also highlights broader macroeconomic forces that could benefit crypto markets going into 2026. Elevated concentration and valuations among large-cap US technology stocks have increased crowding risks, encouraging investors to seek diversification beyond mega-cap equities. In this context, digital assets may attract incremental institutional allocation as part of more diversified portfolios.
The report notes that regulatory and index-related risks, including concerns that digital asset treasury companies could be removed from major benchmarks like the MSCI Index, have recently eased, reducing the likelihood of forced selling across the sector.
Finally, Binance points to ongoing debate around Bitcoin’s four-year cycle. Some market participants argue that widespread belief in a cyclical downturn could become self-defeating, with early selling pressure breaking the traditional pattern and leaving 2026 less constrained by historical cycle expectations.

Paul Atkins, chair of the U.S. SEC, said it remains unclear whether the United States would seize Venezuela’s reported Bitcoin holdings if given the opportunity, stressing that such decisions would be handled by other parts of the administration. His comments followed reports claiming Venezuela holds up to $60 billion worth of Bitcoin, a figure that blockchain analysts have so far been unable to verify. The speculation emerged after U.S. forces, acting under President Donald Trump’s direction, captured President Nicolás Maduro and transferred him to the U.S. to face criminal charges.

Atkins’ remarks came ahead of a planned Senate Banking Committee markup of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY), a bill already passed by the House but delayed in the Senate due to a government shutdown and ongoing political debates. While the legislation aims to clarify oversight of digital assets—potentially expanding the CFTC’s authority—it faces resistance over stablecoin provisions, ethics concerns, and could be further delayed by election campaigning and the risk of another government shutdown.

KRAKacquisition Corp files for IPO, backed by Kraken affiliate

KRAKacquisition Corp, a newly formed special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), filed an S-1 registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday for its proposed initial public offering.

According to the filing, the IPO will consist of 25 million units, each priced at $10, with each unit comprising one Class A ordinary share and one-quarter of a redeemable warrant. The company plans to list its units on the Nasdaq Global Market under the ticker KRAQU.

KRAKacquisition was established as a blank-check company to pursue a merger or business combination with one or more operating businesses. The company is sponsored by an affiliate of crypto exchange Kraken, though it emphasized that it has not selected any specific acquisition target and has not engaged in substantive discussions with potential targets.

The IPO overlaps with Kraken’s own public market ambitions. Last November, Kraken confidentially filed a draft S-1 with the SEC at a reported $20 billion valuation. Since then, the exchange has completed an acquisition of tokenized asset issuer Backed Finance and acquired four other companies in 2025, including NinjaTrader for $1.5 billion.

While no target has been identified, KRAKacquisition’s IPO could serve as a strategic vehicle for Kraken’s broader ecosystem expansion, aligning with the exchange’s goal of becoming a comprehensive, multi-asset financial platform.

Ripple urges SEC to separate crypto regulation from securities law based on legal rights

On January 9, Ripple submitted a letter to the U.S. SEC Crypto Task Force, proposing a rights-based framework for digital asset regulation instead of relying on market activity, speculation, or technological design. Ripple argues that securities laws should apply only to enforceable promises tied to a transaction and end once those promises are fulfilled.

The letter was signed by Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty, General Counsel Sameer Dhond, and Deputy General Counsel Deborah McCrimmon. Ripple emphasized: “The decisive factor is the holder’s legal rights, not their economic hopes. Without this bright line, the definition of a security and the SEC’s jurisdiction become amorphous and unbounded.”

Ripple also criticized approaches that treat decentralization, trading behavior, or ongoing development as substitutes for legal obligations. The company stressed that passive speculation alone does not create a security: “What distinguishes a security is a legal claim on the enterprise—such as rights to dividends, revenue shares, liquidation proceeds, or ownership—not simply the hope of price appreciation.”

The letter compares crypto markets to commodities and consumer goods that trade actively without triggering securities laws and supports fit-for-purpose disclosures where direct promises or retained control exist, while noting that fraud and market manipulation can still be addressed under existing enforcement authorities.

World Liberty Financial launches new lending platform World Liberty Markets
Decentralized finance company World Liberty Financial, backed by President Donald Trump and his sons, on Monday announced the launch of World Liberty Markets, a platform that allows users to earn yield by lending assets or borrow against their portfolios using stablecoins, Ethereum (ETH), or cbBTC.
Powered by the multi-chain DEX protocol Dolomite, the platform supports a variety of assets, including World Liberty’s native token WLFI, stablecoin USD1, USDC, USDT, Ethereum, and Coinbase Wrapped Bitcoin (cbBTC). World Liberty Markets aims to support the future of tokenized finance, providing access to real-world asset products and expanding USD1 usage across all WLFI applications.
Since its launch, the platform has attracted around $20 million in supplied assets, primarily from USD1, which offers a 27% incentive rate and USD1 reward points for users depositing at least $1,000. Zak Folkman, co-founder and COO of WLFI, said, “World Liberty Markets is a major step forward, giving USD1 users new ways to put their stablecoins to work.”
The platform currently operates as a web app, with plans to integrate into the WLFI mobile app. Asset support and incentive structures will be determined by users and WLFI token holders through decentralized governance votes.
World Liberty Financial launched USD1 across multiple blockchains in March last year, now ranking as the seventh-largest stablecoin with over $3.4 billion in circulation. Its native governance token WLFI launched in September, trading around $0.17, up 18% in the last two weeks but still 49% below its all-time high of $0.33.
The company has also applied for a national bank charter with the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), joining other crypto and stablecoin firms like Circle and Ripple that received approval last December.

CFTC taps Tyler Winklevoss and other crypto CEOs for innovation advisory committee

Mike Selig, the new Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), has announced the formation of a restructured Innovation Advisory Committee that will include crypto industry leaders as charter members. Tyler Winklevoss, CEO of Gemini, will join executives from Kraken, Bitnomial, Crypto.com, and Bullish on the panel.

The committee, rebuilt from the former Technology Advisory Committee, will advise the CFTC on developing regulations tailored for emerging financial technologies, including blockchain, artificial intelligence, and cloud computing. Selig stated, “The committee will help develop fit-for-purpose market structure rules for this new frontier of finance.”

The CFTC is inviting the public to nominate additional members and suggest topics for consideration by the end of January. This committee is one of five outside advisory panels designed to provide expert guidance to the agency.

Senate introduces bill to protect crypto developers from money transmitter rules

Republican Sen. Cynthia Lummis and Democratic Sen. Ron Wyden introduced the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act on Monday, aiming to clarify that software developers who do not control users’ funds are not considered money transmitters. The legislation mirrors work already done in the House and seeks to establish clear guardrails for developers and service providers.

Wyden emphasized that treating code developers like exchanges or brokers “is technologically illiterate and risks violating Americans’ privacy and free speech rights.”

The bill is expected to be included in the Senate Banking Committee’s broader crypto market structure legislation, which is moving toward hearings and a vote this week. Negotiations with the crypto industry and banking sector have addressed issues such as stablecoin yield treatment, President Donald Trump’s family crypto ventures, and the role of decentralized finance (DeFi).

The DeFi Education Fund called the BRCA “vital” and urged congressional leaders to prioritize protections for software developers and self-custody within the broader market structure bill.

Markets reacted sharply after Fed Chair Jerome Powell revealed legal and political pressures on the Fed, raising concerns over central bank independence. Gold surged, the dollar dropped, and Bitcoin and Ethereum initially rose as investors reassessed risk.
The episode highlights a new macro risk: governance and independence risk. If investors believe Fed policy can be influenced by political or legal pressure, it affects dollar credibility, bond term premiums, and market liquidity, creating a new volatility channel for crypto.
For Bitcoin in 2026, three channels are key:
Dollar credibility: pressure on Fed weakens USD and boosts gold/Bitcoin as safe assets.
Term premium: uncertainty pushes long-term yields higher, signaling risk to markets and crypto.
Liquidity and rates volatility: rising MOVE and tighter risk budgets can trigger forced deleveraging, impacting Bitcoin short-term.
Three scenarios may unfold:
Shock absorbed: Fed maintains independence, markets stabilize, Bitcoin trades on liquidity and growth.
Chronic pressure: Ongoing governance risk leads to repeated repricing, volatility remains high.
Policy shift priced in: Markets anticipate Fed can be influenced, driving term premium and cross-asset volatility higher; Bitcoin acts as a credibility hedge but faces short-term drawdowns.
Key dates in 2026—Powell’s term ending and legal cases—make independence risk tradable. Crypto traders should track USD, term premiums, MOVE, and gold vs. Bitcoin for signals.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin argues that the most valuable upgrade for Ethereum may be knowing when to stop upgrading.

Buterin suggests that locking parts of the base layer can reduce bugs and surprises, allowing Ethereum to operate safely even if its maintainers disappear. He calls this the “walkaway test”, aiming to make the base protocol behave like a trust-minimized tool rather than a service that fails when developers stop maintaining it.

Rather than constant reinvention, Buterin envisions “ossification”: a network that can freeze without losing its core functionality. Innovation would shift to layer-2 solutions, wallets, privacy tools, and apps, while the base layer remains stable and secure.

This approach also serves as a critique of crypto culture that rewards fast followers. Ethereum’s long-term goal is to minimize high-stakes upgrade risks through careful protocol design, ensuring its credibility and stability while still allowing evolution through client optimizations and parameter adjustments rather than disruptive forks.

Polygon Foundation CEO Sandeep Nailwal on Friday detailed new mechanisms for the network’s native token, POL, including deflationary burns and staking rewards tied directly to network usage. Nailwal emphasized: “If Polygon Chain and Agglayer succeed, POL holders benefit. Full stop.”

POL dropped 6.7% over the past 24 hours, but analysts say this reflects normal market volatility rather than a rejection of Polygon’s long-term roadmap. Following Nailwal’s announcement, POL briefly hit a weekend high of $0.1842 before giving back most of its gains.

While Polygon’s daily revenue surged from around $13,000 in mid-December to roughly $200,000 last week, active addresses fell from 2.9 million to about 489,000. The token’s deflationary design burns 100% of base transaction fees on the Polygon chain. A single-day burn recently reached 3 million POL, and an average burn of 1.5 million per day could reduce total supply by roughly 5% annually, potentially making POL “the most deflationary token in the industry.”

Key benefits for POL holders include transaction fees, staking rewards, and future interoperability fees from Agglayer. Daily transactions recently hit 5.9 million, though still below Base’s 10.1 million.

Polygon is also expanding real-world utility through its partnership with Revolut, enabling stablecoin payments and remittances, with over $690 million in volume processed via Revolut since December 2025.

Nailwal and Polygon Labs CEO Marc Boiron also unveiled the Open Money Stack, a long-term initiative aiming to bring “all money on-chain,” integrating blockchain rails, stablecoin interoperability, compliance tools, and fiat on/off-ramps, with the goal of driving mainstream crypto adoption.

Analysts like Ryan Lee of Bitget expect POL to consolidate in the $0.15–0.25 range near term, providing a “healthy accumulation zone” ahead of ecosystem expansion. Longer-term investor sentiment remains bullish, though early-quarter “alt season” probability is estimated at just 19%.

BitMine adds 24,000 ETH, now holds 3.5% of circulating supply

BitMine Immersion Technologies added 24,266 ETH worth about $76 million over the past week, expanding its Ethereum treasury to more than 4.16 million ETH, valued at roughly $13 billion. The holdings represent around 3.5% of Ethereum’s circulating supply, making BitMine the largest Ethereum treasury and the second-largest crypto treasury overall, behind Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings.

Chairman Tom Lee said 2026 is shaping up to be a constructive year for crypto, with stablecoin adoption and real-world asset tokenization reinforcing Ethereum’s role as Wall Street’s settlement layer. Standard Chartered echoed this view in a research note, citing BitMine’s continued buying as a key catalyst for ETH’s potential outperformance versus Bitcoin.

While the bank lowered its near-term ETH price target to $7,500 for 2026, it raised its longer-term outlook, forecasting $30,000 by 2029 and $40,000 by 2030. ETH was recently trading around $3,132, while BitMine (BMNR) shares were up more than 3% on the day at $31.04.

Eric Adams promotes “NYC Token” as copycat tokens flood the market

Former New York City mayor Eric Adams on Monday endorsed a cryptocurrency called “NYC Token” during a press conference in Times Square, saying the project aims to combat “antisemitism and anti-Americanism” while educating children about blockchain technology. Adams said he is not taking a salary from the initiative at this stage, though that could change later, and that a substantial portion of the funds raised would go to nonprofits, historically Black colleges and universities, and scholarships for underserved New York City students.

The token has not yet officially launched and little information is available, prompting a wave of copycat tokens to appear on meme coin launchpads such as Pump.fun, many borrowing the logo and “NYC” ticker symbol Adams displayed. Known for taking his first three mayoral paychecks in Bitcoin and Ethereum in 2022 and earning the nickname “Bitcoin mayor,” Adams signaled he will maintain close ties to the crypto space as he transitions back to private life. Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani was sworn in as New York City’s mayor two weeks ago.

Adams’ move echoes the debut of President Donald Trump’s meme coin ahead of his inauguration last year, renewing concerns over potential conflicts of interest. As a crypto market structure bill approaches a key markup vote, several U.S. lawmakers are calling for stronger ethics rules to prevent public officials from profiting from crypto-related ties.

BitGo targets up to $201 million in U.S. IPO

BitGo is seeking to raise up to $201 million in its U.S. initial public offering, according to a regulatory filing released on Monday. The Palo Alto, California-based crypto custody firm and some of its existing shareholders plan to offer 11.8 million shares, priced between $15 and $17 each.

The IPO comes at a turbulent time for the digital asset industry, following a sharp crypto selloff in October that has made investors more cautious toward companies in the sector.

Founded in 2013, BitGo is one of the largest crypto custody providers in the United States, specializing in the storage and protection of digital assets — a service that has grown increasingly important as institutional interest in crypto continues to expand.

Goldman Sachs and Citigroup are serving as the lead underwriters for the offering. BitGo intends to list its shares on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol BTGO.

Strategy buys another 13,627 BTC, total holdings reach 687,410 BTC

Strategy has purchased an additional 13,627 BTC for approximately $1.25 billion at an average price of $91,519 per bitcoin, according to an 8-K filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The acquisition was made between Jan. 5 and Jan. 11.

With the latest purchase, Strategy’s total bitcoin holdings have risen to 687,410 BTC, worth roughly $62.3 billion at current prices. The company’s total acquisition cost stands at about $51.8 billion, implying unrealized gains of around $10.5 billion. The stash represents more than 3% of bitcoin’s fixed 21 million supply.

The purchases were funded through at-the-market sales of Strategy’s Class A common stock (MSTR) and its perpetual Stretch preferred stock (STRC). Last week, the firm sold around 6.83 million MSTR shares for approximately $1.13 billion and about 1.19 million STRC shares for $119.1 million, while retaining significant remaining issuance capacity under its existing programs.

Despite its growing bitcoin position, Strategy’s stock continues to trade at a discount to the value of its holdings, with a market cap-to-net asset value ratio of roughly 0.81. The shares saw volatile trading following MSCI’s decision not to immediately remove digital asset treasury companies from its global equity indexes.

Tether froze more than $182 million in USDT over the past 24 hours, targeting five Tron-based wallets holding between $12 million and $50 million each, with no official explanation for the action. Chainalysis data shows stablecoins accounted for 84% of illicit transaction volume by the end of 2025. Meanwhile, an AMLBot report reveals Tether froze around $3.3 billion in assets from 2023 to 2025 and blacklisted 7,268 wallet addresses.

The U.S. Department of Justice has launched an unprecedented criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, raising serious concerns about the independence of the central bank. Powell confirmed the probe, which centers on allegations that he misled Congress over a Fed headquarters renovation, but dismissed the claims as a pretext for political pressure on monetary policy.

Market reactions were mixed: traditional safe havens like gold and silver rose sharply, while Bitcoin showed a relatively muted response. Analysts say the case reinforces Bitcoin’s narrative as a politically neutral asset, increasingly viewed by institutions as a hedge against risks of political interference in monetary policy.

Experts warn that if the investigation undermines Fed independence, it could destabilize confidence in the U.S. dollar and Treasury system, embedding political risk permanently into asset pricing. In the short term, heightened volatility across risk assets—including Bitcoin—is expected, but over the longer run, Bitcoin could evolve into a stronger institutional hedge if political influence over the Fed becomes entrenched.

Crypto YouTube viewership sinks to lowest level since 2021

Viewership of crypto-related content on YouTube has fallen to its lowest level since January 2021, following a sharp pullback over the past three months.

ITC Crypto founder Benjamin Cowen shared data showing a 30-day moving average of views across multiple crypto YouTube channels trending lower. He noted that the decline is not limited to X due to algorithm changes, but reflects a broader drop in engagement across platforms. Crypto YouTuber Tom Crown added that social interest has “collapsed across all platforms” since October and has effectively been in a bear market since 2021.

Several creators say retail investors are exhausted after years of scams and pump-and-dump schemes. TikTok creator Cloud9 Markets said repeated “ponzi” altcoin cycles have worn retail down, while others noted that viewership during the 2021 peak has never been matched since.

The trend supports the idea that institutions have been driving this market cycle, with retail participation taking a back seat. Some observers also argue that investors have shifted toward macro assets and precious metals in search of returns, following a difficult 2025 for crypto.

Despite the broader decline, Santiment said social sentiment toward Bitcoin is gradually improving, with the $90,000 level seen as critical to keeping retail confidence intact. Sentiment toward Ethereum, however, remains scattered with no clear trend emerging.

According to TKResearch Trading, large holders appear to be increasingly controlling SHIB’s liquidity on centralized exchanges. Since Dec. 5, exchanges have recorded a net outflow of around 80 trillion SHIB, with total exchange balances falling from 370.3 trillion to 290.3 trillion tokens.

Over the past 60 days, several newly created wallets withdrew approximately 82 trillion SHIB from major CEXs, including Coinbase, at prices near $0.0000085. This amount represented roughly 28% of the total exchange balance at the time.

The data suggests a rapid contraction in on-exchange SHIB supply, potentially amplifying the influence of whales on market liquidity and price volatility.

Coinbase may reconsider backing U.S. crypto bill over stablecoin rewards limits

Coinbase could withdraw its support for the U.S. crypto market structure bill if lawmakers move to impose broader restrictions on rewards for stablecoin holders, according to a Bloomberg report.

Under the GENIUS Act, signed into law in July 2025, stablecoin issuers are barred from paying direct interest or yield to users. However, the law does not prohibit third-party platforms such as Coinbase from offering rewards based on customer balances. Coinbase reportedly views any expansion of restrictions beyond disclosure requirements as unacceptable, given how central stablecoin rewards are to its business model.

As Congress prepares to unveil the market structure bill, one proposal under discussion would limit stablecoin rewards to regulated financial institutions. While Coinbase has applied for a national trust charter, the company and other crypto firms argue that platform-based rewards should be preserved to maintain competition in the market.

Coinbase partners with Circle and shares in the interest income generated from reserves backing USDC. It currently offers incentives of around 3.5% on Coinbase One balances. Stablecoin-related revenue is projected to reach about $1.3 billion in 2025, and further limits could significantly damage that revenue stream.

Banking industry groups, meanwhile, are pushing for tighter rules, warning that yield-like rewards on stablecoins could divert deposits from traditional banks and lack protections comparable to FDIC-insured products. The dispute is reportedly straining bipartisan support for the broader market structure bill, raising the risk of delays or failure as the Trump administration pushes for swift passage of crypto legislation.

India tightens KYC rules for crypto exchanges with live selfies and geolocation

India’s Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) has issued new guidelines tightening user onboarding requirements for regulated crypto platforms, reinforcing anti-money laundering (AML) and know-your-customer (KYC) standards.

Under the new rules, exchanges must verify users through live selfie images, using software that tracks eye and head movements to prevent AI deepfake abuse. Platforms are also required to collect geolocation data, IP addresses, and timestamps at account creation.

Exchanges must additionally verify user bank accounts by sending a small test transaction, collect extra government-issued photo ID, and require email and mobile number verification before accounts can be activated.

The move reflects India’s increasingly strict stance toward crypto and digital assets. With a population exceeding 1.4 billion, broader onchain adoption in India could still represent a major growth opportunity for the global crypto market.

Separately, officials from India’s Income Tax Department (ITD) told lawmakers that crypto and decentralized finance undermine tax enforcement due to anonymous wallets, decentralized exchanges, and cross-border transactions. Under current law, crypto gains are taxed at 30%, with only cost basis deductions allowed and no offsetting of losses across trades.