BlockSonic

Thursday's decline highlighted that, despite its intended role as a macro hedge, Bitcoin continues to act like a high-risk asset during market downturns.

In the midst of significant declines in traditional markets, cryptocurrency once again emerged as an underperformer on Thursday.
What began as modest overnight declines in crypto escalated into a notable rout during U.S. morning hours, with the Nasdaq falling more than two percent and gold plummeting nearly ten percent from a record high overnight. However, while both markets managed substantial afternoon recoveries—the Nasdaq closing with a decline of just zero point seven percent and gold reclaiming the five thousand four hundred dollar per ounce level—Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies lingered near session lows. At press time, Bitcoin was trading just above eighty-four thousand dollars. Having lost almost six percent over the past twenty-four hours, Bitcoin is precariously positioned on the edge of breaking below its two-month range, indicating the possibility of a deeper pullback.
Other cryptocurrencies and related assets mirrored these declines. Ethereum, Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin were all approximately seven percent lower over the last twenty-four hours, while crypto exchange Coinbase, stablecoin issuer Circle, and Bitcoin treasury firm Strategy experienced losses ranging from five to ten percent.
Matt Mena, a crypto research strategist at twenty one Shares, emphasized that staying above the eighty-four thousand dollar support level is "critical" for Bitcoin. If that level fails, he cautioned that the next target is eighty thousand dollars, where buyers had previously stepped in back in November, followed by the seventy-five thousand dollar lows seen during the tariff events of April twenty twenty-five.
Despite the current challenges, Mena described the prices as a "compelling entry point." He anticipates Bitcoin will reach one hundred thousand dollars by the end of the first quarter, potentially even hitting a new record of one hundred twenty-eight thousand dollars if macroeconomic conditions allow.
Other analysts warned of a deeper pullback ahead.
John Glover, Chief Investment Officer of the Bitcoin lender Ledn, noted that Thursday’s selloff is part of Bitcoin's broader correction from the October record highs. He suggested this movement could ultimately drive Bitcoin down to seventy-one thousand dollars, representing a forty-three percent decline from the early October figure of one hundred twenty-six thousand dollars.
As the United States remains a key source of market uncertainty, Glover observed that investors are turning to alternative havens like gold and the Swiss franc over traditional safe assets such as the U.S. dollar and treasuries. While many expected Bitcoin to serve as "digital gold," it continues to be treated as a risk asset, selling off alongside equities, he stated.
Similar to Mena, Glover believes the current difficulties are temporary. “I do believe this is a somewhat transient situation and we will see a rebound in Bitcoin prices in the coming quarters," he concluded.
"The technical levels have all been breached on the downside, and I don’t see much support here for Bitcoin," Russell Thompson, Chief Investment Officer at Hilbert Group, remarked. He also believes Bitcoin could drop as low as seventy thousand dollars. "The clarity markup coming out of the committee is optimistic, but there is indeed a general risk move here."

The central bank of El Salvador, a small nation embracing Bitcoin, announced the acquisition of fifty million dollars worth of gold, as stated in a post on X.

This purchase, totaling nine thousand two hundred ninety-eight troy ounces, raises the country’s total gold holdings to sixty-seven thousand four hundred three ounces, valued at approximately three hundred sixty million dollars at current prices.
President Nayib Bukele shared the announcement, stating, "We just bought the other dip." It remains unclear whether Bukele was praising the gold purchase or humorously referring to the government's own Bitcoin acquisition. Arkham data indicated that the country added one Bitcoin to its holdings on Thursday, aligning with Bukele's ongoing commitment to acquire one Bitcoin daily.
According to Arkham, the nation’s stockpile now stands at seven thousand five hundred forty-seven Bitcoins worth six hundred thirty-five million dollars at Bitcoin's currently depressed price just above eighty-four thousand dollars.

The world's largest cryptocurrency has lost nearly ten thousand dollars over the past twenty-four hours, now threatening to breach its recent November low just under eighty-one thousand dollars.

Bitcoin's price continued to decline during late Thursday evening U.S. hours, dropping to as low as eighty-one thousand dollars before rebounding to around eighty-two thousand dollars.
The largest cryptocurrency has now lost close to ten thousand dollars within the past twenty-four hours of trading. More than seven hundred seventy-seven million dollars in crypto long positions were liquidated over the past hour, bringing the total to one point seventy-five billion dollars within the last twenty-four hours, according to CoinGlass.
The broader cryptocurrency market similarly experienced a downturn of seven to nine percent over the past day, with Ether hovering around two thousand seven hundred dollars, BNB around eight hundred forty-five dollars, and XRP around one dollar and seventy-five cents.
A CoinDesk analysis indicated that if Bitcoin's price falls below eighty-five thousand dollars, it could signal a further decline.
At present levels, Bitcoin is barely maintaining support above its November low, just under eighty-one thousand dollars. If that level fails, the next support could be the tariff-related low of seventy-five thousand dollars from April twenty twenty-five.
Traders may be reacting to reports that U.S. President Donald Trump plans to nominate former Federal Reserve Board member Kevin Warsh to replace current Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Trump mentioned late Thursday that he would announce his nominee Friday morning, a day after criticizing Powell and the Fed for not reducing rates.
Polymarket odds on Warsh being the nominee surged to eighty-seven percent from just thirty-seven percent two hours prior. Before the spike in odds for Warsh, BlackRock’s fixed-income chief Rick Rieder—considered by some to be a more dovish selection—was thought to have the inside track for the nomination.
Warsh was reportedly at the White House on Thursday, according to CNBC.

...Bitcoin price fluctuations result in one point seven billion dollars in liquidated bullish crypto bets.
The crypto market faced a significant downturn over the past twenty-four hours, leading to one point six eight billion dollars in liquidations as leveraged positions were wiped out across major exchanges, according to data from CoinGlass.

Approximately two hundred sixty-seven thousand three hundred seventy traders were forced out of their positions, with long positions accounting for an overwhelming one point five six billion dollars, or nearly ninety-three percent of the total liquidations.
Short positions comprised just one hundred eighteen million dollars, reflecting the one-sided nature of positioning prior to the downturn.
Bitcoin and Ether led the liquidation wave. Bitcoin alone experienced about seven hundred eighty million dollars in liquidations, while Ether followed with over four hundred fourteen million dollars, based on liquidation heatmap data. The largest single liquidation was an eighty million five hundred seventy thousand dollar Bitcoin position on HTX, illustrating that even deep liquidity does not protect against excessive leverage when market momentum shifts.
The pain was concentrated on venues heavy with perpetual contracts. Hyperliquid topped the list with five hundred ninety-eight million dollars in liquidations, with over ninety-four percent of those being long positions, demonstrating how aggressively traders leaned into bullish bets. Bybit followed with three hundred thirty-nine million dollars, and Binance logged one hundred eighty-one million dollars, with long exposure dominating across all three platforms.
Liquidations occur when leveraged traders can no longer meet margin requirements, prompting exchanges to forcibly close positions to prevent further losses.
In volatile markets, this becomes reflexive: forced selling drives prices lower, triggering additional liquidations and creating a cascading effect. This precise feedback loop unfolded here.
For traders, liquidation data provides insight into where leverage was accumulated and where risk has been purged.
Heavy long liquidations often signify a clearing of speculative excess, resetting funding rates and open interest. While this does not imply a market bottom, it does indicate that weaker hands have exited, and future price action may be less influenced by forced selling.
The broader takeaway is that this movement was likely not driven by fresh bearish sentiment but rather the unwinding of leverage. When nearly all positions are long, the market does not require negative news—it merely needs gravity to assert itself.

The volatility of Bitcoin surged dramatically during Thursday's major sell-off as traders sought downside protection.

Deribit’s Bitcoin volatility index, known as DVOL, recorded a sharp increase, rising from around thirty-seven to above forty-four. DVOL serves as crypto's equivalent to Wall Street’s VIX, a measure of market fear tracking anticipated price movement over the next thirty days based on options pricing.
When DVOL rises, it indicates traders are willing to pay a premium for protection, making options more costly and escalating fear.
Options are derivative contracts granting the purchaser the right to buy or sell the underlying asset at a predetermined price at a future date. A call option provides the right to buy and indicates a bullish outlook on the market, while a put option offers protection against price declines.
The volatility spike coincided with renewed macro uncertainty, including increasing risks of a government shutdown and fresh political discussions regarding the future leadership of the Federal Reserve. Volatility also increased in traditional markets, with the VIX rising concurrently, reinforcing the notion of a broader risk-off sentiment rather than an isolated crypto event.
Despite the volatility spike, Bitcoin’s implied volatility remains far from extreme when assessed in historical context.
Data from Deribit indicates Bitcoin’s implied volatility rank stands at thirty-six, suggesting current implied volatility is only slightly above its lowest levels from the past year. The implied volatility percentile is near fifty, indicating that Bitcoin’s volatility has been lower than current levels roughly half the time over the last twelve months.
In simple terms, volatility surged quickly, but it is not yet at extreme levels.
This information is crucial for traders. A rising DVOL signals that options markets anticipate larger price fluctuations ahead, even if spot prices seem stable. The implied volatility rank and percentile help traders assess whether options are priced attractively or expensively relative to recent history, influencing decisions about hedging, leverage, and risk exposure.
Currently, options markets indicate caution rather than panic.
However, coupled with over one point seven billion dollars in liquidations and heavy long positioning being flushed out across exchanges, the volatility spike highlights how precarious positioning had become. When prices broke lower, forced selling exacerbated the situation.
The message from derivatives markets is clear: Bitcoin is experiencing turbulence. Traders are preparing for further volatility ahead, with some targeting the seventy thousand dollar mark in the coming weeks.

Bitcoin declined further to nearly eighty-one thousand dollars late Thursday as Warsh's nomination odds increased in betting markets.

On Thursday, President Donald Trump indicated he would announce his choice for the U.S. Federal Reserve chair to succeed incumbent Jerome Powell after Powell's term concludes in May.
While no official announcement has been made, reports suggest that the Trump administration is preparing to nominate Kevin Warsh, who served on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors from two thousand six to two thousand eleven.
Although Warsh has occasionally expressed support for cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin fell late Thursday to around eighty-one thousand dollars as his nomination odds surged on betting sites, with some analysts viewing him as a bearish influence on the asset.
"Markets generally perceive a resurgence of Warsh's influence as negative for Bitcoin, as his focus on monetary discipline, higher real rates, and reduced liquidity frames crypto not as a safeguard against currency devaluation but as a speculative excess that diminishes when easy money is withdrawn," remarked Markus Thielen, founder of ten times Research.
Higher real interest rates indicate the actual cost of borrowing money, adjusted for inflation, is elevated. This represents the "true" interest rate that negatively affects financial conditions. Elevated real rates typically lead businesses and investors to reduce exposure to high-risk investments like Bitcoin.
Warsh's historical stance adds to the concern. During the global financial crisis from December two thousand seven to June two thousand nine, Warsh consistently highlighted inflation risks even as the global economy faced significant deflationary pressures.
For instance, in September two thousand eight, following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Warsh stated, "I'm still not ready to relinquish my concerns on the inflation front."
Seven months later, when the Fed's preferred inflation measure was at zero point eight percent and the unemployment rate was at nine percent, he remarked, "I continue to be more worried about upside risks to inflation than downside risks."
Over the years, many observers have suggested that Warsh's hawkish outlook and failure to recognize deflation risks exacerbated the crisis.
"From this perspective, his approach would likely have led to higher unemployment, slower recoveries, and greater deflation risks during the two thousand ten decade," Thielen noted.
This situation renders a potential Warsh appointment ironic, as the former Fed governor's hawkish record sharply contrasts with Trump's reflationary, pro-risk asset agenda. Trump has frequently criticized Powell, often resorting to personal attacks for maintaining elevated rates and constraining the economy. The President has emphasized the need for rapid rate reductions, advocating for interest rates to be as low as one percent from the current range of three point five to three point seven percent.
Consequently, several observers suggest Warsh would be an unsuitable choice for the Fed, which is expected to align with Trump's perspective.
"Kevin Warsh has maintained a hawkish monetary policy stance throughout his career, particularly during a time when labor markets were deteriorating. His current dovishness appears opportunistic. The President risks being misled," Renaissance Macro Research commented.
"I reviewed the Federal Open Market Committee transcripts during the financial crisis. His remarks alarmed me," remarked Bloomberg's Chief U.S. Economist Ana Wong.
Fortunately, even if appointed as Fed chair, Warsh cannot unilaterally dictate rates, as the Board of Governors votes collectively, which mitigates the influence of any single voice. It remains uncertain whether Trump will proceed with Warsh's nomination.
Until that decision is made, his hawkish history may continue to unsettle risk assets and strengthen the dollar in the interim.

The downturn in metals has become a significant theme for the year, while Bitcoin trades independently, highlighting its increasing role as a standalone risk asset.

The crypto market's close ties to traditional markets were exposed on Friday as a sharp decline in metal prices led to millions being wiped out in leveraged bets on blockchain versions of gold, silver, and copper.
Three-month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange fell nearly four percent from Thursday’s peak above fourteen thousand five hundred dollars a ton, settling closer to thirteen thousand dollars amid technical issues at the LME and a significant shift in positioning by Chinese traders. This pullback followed relentless gains driven by Chinese demand, energy transition optimism, and a weaker U.S. dollar.
Gold and silver prices declined by four percent and five point nine percent, respectively.
This retraction quickly reflected in crypto markets. Tokenized metal products linked to copper, gold, and silver experienced unusually high losses as their spot prices cooled.
Across exchanges, derivatives and spot-style products linked to metals logged roughly one hundred twenty million dollars in combined liquidations over the past twenty-four hours. Silver-linked contracts led with thirty-two million dollars in losses, followed by gold and copper-linked futures. Prices for tokenized bullion products like XAU and XAUT dropped over seven percent.
These liquidations underscore how crypto venues are increasingly being utilized as complementary channels for macro trades.
When metals surged earlier this week, traders gravitated towards crypto-native contracts for their speed, leverage, and round-the-clock accessibility. As prices reversed, these markets served as a release valve for risk.
The broader pullback in metals coincided with a strengthening U.S. dollar, fueled by speculation that the Trump administration may nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair.
A stronger dollar often pressures commodities priced in dollars, and Friday's shift impacted metals across the board. Gold saw a sharp decline from record highs, while silver, crude oil, and iron ore followed suit.
Despite the setback, metals continue to be one of the strongest themes of the year thus far. Copper is still on track for a strong weekly gain, driven by supply constraints and electrification demand, while gold continues attracting flows as investors hedge against political and fiscal uncertainty.
Crypto markets are increasingly part of this narrative—not as a separate trade but as a parallel venue where global macro bets unfold in real time.

Binance announced on Friday that it will convert the stablecoin holdings in its one billion dollar Secure Asset Fund for Users into Bitcoin over the next thirty days, committing to regular audits.

This initiative targets the Secure Asset Fund for Users, a safety net established to protect users from losses due to unforeseen events such as hacks. The exchange plans to gradually convert its stablecoin holdings within thirty days and has pledged to conduct regular audits.
Binance stated that if Bitcoin's price fluctuations cause the fund's value to dip below eight hundred million dollars, the exchange will replenish it back to one billion dollars.
"This initiative is part of Binance's long-term industry-building efforts, and we will continue to advance related work, gradually sharing more progress with the community," the exchange's translated post on X stated.
As of twenty twenty-five, the exchange's proof-of-reserves report indicated users held approximately one hundred sixty-three billion dollars in crypto tokens on the platform.
Stablecoins are digital tokens pegged to external references like the U.S. dollar. Bitcoin, on the other hand, stands as the world’s leading cryptocurrency, boasting a market value exceeding one point six trillion dollars.

U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin and Ether exchange-traded funds faced one of their worst combined outflow days of twenty twenty-six as falling prices, rising volatility, and macro uncertainty prompted investors to reduce their exposure.

U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs saw nearly eight hundred seventeen million nine hundred thousand dollars withdrawn on January twenty-ninth, marking the largest daily outflow since November twentieth. Ether ETFs also faced significant selling, losing one hundred fifty-five million six hundred thousand dollars on the same day.
These outflows coincided with a sharp drop in crypto prices. Bitcoin fell below eighty-five thousand dollars and later slid toward eighty-one thousand dollars during U.S. trading hours before nearing the eighty-three thousand dollar mark in Asian morning hours on Friday. Ether dropped more than seven percent on the day.
BlackRock’s IBIT bore the brunt of Bitcoin ETF redemptions, shedding three hundred seventeen million eight hundred thousand dollars. Fidelity’s FBTC lost one hundred sixty-eight million dollars, while Grayscale’s GBTC saw one hundred nineteen million four hundred thousand dollars exit. Smaller products like Bitwise, Ark twenty-one Shares, and VanEck also experienced significant outflows.
Ether ETFs mirrored this trend. BlackRock’s ETHA lost fifty-four million nine hundred thousand dollars, Fidelity’s FETH saw fifty-nine million two hundred thousand dollars exit, and Grayscale’s Ether products continued to bleed assets. Total Ether ETF assets have fallen to sixteen point seventy-five billion dollars, down from over eighteen billion dollars earlier this month.
The synchronized selling across Bitcoin and Ether ETFs indicates institutional investors were not merely rotating between assets but were reducing overall crypto exposure. This marks a departure from earlier in January when inflows into Ether funds often offset weaknesses in Bitcoin products.
The selloff emerged amid rising volatility in risk assets and renewed uncertainty regarding U.S. economic policy, as analysts viewed potential Fed chair Kevin Warsh as bearish for Bitcoin.
The increase in implied volatility, weakness in equities, and speculation about future Federal Reserve leadership dampened sentiment.
At the same time, aggressive unwinding of leveraged positions in crypto markets added additional pressure to spot prices.
For now, ETF flows appear to be responding to price action rather than leading it. As long as Bitcoin and Ether remain under pressure, analysts expect ETF demand to stay fragile, with investors waiting for volatility to cool before re-entering the market.

The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has recently rebounded from its lows, reflecting a pattern observed in the two thousand nineteen to two thousand twenty cycle.

Bitcoin is poised to underperform gold for the sixth consecutive month as investors overlook the largest cryptocurrency's "digital gold" label, opting instead for the safety of a metal that has historically served as a refuge during economic and geopolitical turmoil.
The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio, which indicates the amount of gold equivalent to one Bitcoin, has dropped twenty-three percent this month and currently stands at sixteen point three. The six-month trend resembles the sequence that began in August of two thousand nineteen and ended in January of the following year, when Bitcoin subsequently outperformed gold for the next five months.
Signs of a potential retrenchment may be emerging. The ratio rebounded four percent on Friday after hitting a low of fifteen point five on Thursday, coinciding with a sharp selloff across global markets where risk assets declined aggressively.
While Bitcoin hovers around eighty-two thousand dollars, down just over two percent since midnight UTC, gold has fallen more than eight percent and silver approximately sixteen percent.
From its peak in late twenty twenty-four, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has declined by roughly sixty percent, placing Bitcoin in a technical bear market against gold for about fourteen months. Even if this ratio has now bottomed, it does not necessarily imply a strong upside for Bitcoin, as it may simply reflect gold's continued weakening at a faster rate.

Crypto markets experienced another significant downturn overnight as Bitcoin and Ether continued to lose value, with a wave of liquidations affecting leveraged traders across derivatives markets.

The selloff intensified overnight, with Bitcoin trading at eighty-two thousand six hundred thirteen dollars and forty-four cents and Ether at two thousand seven hundred forty-two dollars and sixty-three cents, reflecting further declines of two point seven percent and three point five percent, respectively, compounding Thursday's poor performance.
This downturn coincided with substantial losses in precious metals, where silver now trades at ninety-six dollars after a twenty percent drop from Thursday's peak of one hundred twenty-one dollars. Gold has also fallen below five thousand dollars, declining by eleven percent from Wednesday's high of five thousand six hundred dollars.
U.S. equity index futures saw a slight decline, while the dollar index posted a zero point fifty-seven percent gain, buoyed by expectations regarding the potential appointment of Kevin Warsh as the new chair of the Federal Reserve.
The global market rout, which saw Bitcoin reach its lowest level since November, resulted in one point eight billion dollars in liquidations across crypto markets, as leveraged traders were caught off guard by the sharp decline despite a weak start to the year for crypto assets.
The Bitcoin-dominant CoinDesk twenty Index is now down by six point six percent since the beginning of the year, while the altcoin-heavy CoinDesk eighty Index has outperformed its counterpart, losing two point twenty-eight percent.

🎥 Youtube → @BlockSonic

Top news topics from 01-26-2026:
1. Metaplanet's Bold Move: Raising One Hundred Thirty-Seven Million Dollars to Expand Its Bitcoin Empire.
2. The Hidden Pressure: Majority of Bitcoin's Value Lies Above Eighty-Eight Thousand Dollars.
3. Weaker dollar fails to ignite Bitcoin’s potential — here’s the truth.
4. Bitcoin’s Dilemma: The Struggle to Compete with Gold’s Allure.
5. Surging Oil Prices: A Dangerous Signal for Bitcoin’s Future.
6. Tech Giants Fueling AI Growth: A Goldmine for Bitcoin Miners?
7. Gold Surges Past Five Thousand Four Hundred Dollars While Bitcoin Stalls — What Does It Mean for You?
8. Tesla's Bitcoin Stance: No Changes Amidst a Two Hundred Thirty-Nine Million Dollar Loss!
9. Paxos Gold Token Surges to Record Highs as Investors Flee to Safe Haven Amid Market Turmoil.
10. The Federal Reserve Stands Firm: What It Means for Bitcoin and Your Financial Future.
11. The DeFi Awakening: Are Risk Ratings the Key to Maturity?
12. Sygnum’s Bitcoin Fund Beckons Investors with Promising Yield of Over Sixty-Five Million Dollars.
13. Strive's Bold Move: One Hundred Million Dollar Surge to Boost Bitcoin and Slash Debt.
14. Unlocking Bitcoin’s Potential: Citrea Transforms Idle Assets into Dynamic Banking.
15. Bitcoin: The Broken Promise of Digital Gold and Payment Solutions.
16. In the past twenty-four hours, bulls have taken a step back as a risk-off sentiment enveloped global markets, pushing Bitcoin down toward eighty-eight thousand dollars.
---
Hey everyone! I’m just one person, hidden deep in the countryside, surrounded by silence, but I built BlockSonic to speak with the entire world. Here, you don’t get noise, you get the pulse of Bitcoin, every single day, distilled into pure, essential updates. No teams. No sponsors. No filters. Just me, a signal from the quietest place on Earth, bringing you the most important Bitcoin news before the world wakes up.
With BlockSonic, you don’t need to search for information. I research, I write, and I tell the story behind every headline. I do the digging. I chase the truth. All you have to do is listen!

In the past twenty-four hours, bulls have taken a step back as a risk-off sentiment enveloped global markets, pushing Bitcoin down toward eighty-eight thousand dollars.
The Federal Reserve's choice to keep interest rates steady between three point five percent and three point seven five percent was anticipated, but escalating geopolitical issues and a shift toward safe-haven assets have resulted in a drastic downturn for crypto traders.

While major stock indices in the United States experienced a mix of optimism and subsequent retreat, with the S&P five hundred momentarily breaching seven thousand for the first time, the crypto landscape faced a harsher reality. Those indices are being significantly swayed by earnings reports from the largest corporations this week.
However, in the realm of crypto, the aversion to risk was palpable. Bitcoin saw a decline, and the broader CoinDesk twenty index suffered a loss of two point nine percent.
This flight from cryptocurrencies coincided with gold soaring to record highs, surpassing five thousand five hundred dollars an ounce, as gold-backed tokens like Tether Gold surged amidst aggressive accumulation from Tether and central banks. Silver also extended its gains, trading at one hundred seventeen dollars an ounce.
Bitcoin, along with the wider crypto market, continues to behave more like a liquidity-sensitive risk asset rather than a dependable hedge, given its substantial liquidity for investors seeking to exit the sector. The U.S. Dollar Index fell to a four-year low this week, yet investors remain skeptical about interpreting this decline as a fundamental shift.

Your essential insights for January twenty-ninth, twenty twenty-six.

By BlockSonic (All times Eastern Time unless indicated otherwise.)
You may have heard the claim that Bitcoin serves a dual purpose: as a digital token reminiscent of gold, with a finite supply of twenty-one million, and as a decentralized technology enabling seamless money transfer without intermediaries.
Yet, here we stand, witnessing Bitcoin falter in both roles. As a store of value, it has struggled against traditional precious metals like gold and silver, revealing a narrative of underperformance that many have documented.
The situation grows even more concerning when we observe the decline in on-chain activity, reminiscent of levels last seen in mid-2025. For example, the thirty-day average of daily confirmed payments processed on the Bitcoin blockchain has plummeted to seven hundred forty-eight thousand three hundred sixty-eight, the lowest figure since mid-July, according to Blockchain.com. Just months prior, we witnessed a peak exceeding eight hundred eighty-four thousand in September. A payment, in this context, indicates that recipients receive funds through an on-chain transaction.
You might wonder how this decline in activity affects the network. The monthly average of confirmed transactions tells a similar story, highlighting a downturn in network usage. The mempool, or memory pool, where unconfirmed transactions await miner verification, has also stagnated. Currently, it sits with just a few thousand unconfirmed transactions each day, a trend persisting since late twenty twenty-five.
"On-chain signals indicate a market in consolidation rather than accumulation. Network activity is waning, and this reduced conviction from both institutional and retail investors is evident in the drop in active addresses and transaction volumes," stated Vikram Subburaj, Chief Executive Officer of Giottus exchange, in a recent email.
You see, the price of a token is intrinsically linked to the active user adoption of its underlying network. This recent decline in activity offers a partial explanation for Bitcoin's lackluster price performance in recent months.
As the leading cryptocurrency by market value, Bitcoin has retreated to eighty-seven thousand five hundred dollars after reaching highs above ninety thousand dollars ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. The central bank opted to maintain interest rates, as anticipated. However, the accompanying policy statement and Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference hinted at a more cautious stance on potential rate cuts in the near future.
With Bitcoin's downward trajectory, notable sectors from earlier this week have now plunged into the red. For instance, the CoinDesk Memecoin Index has experienced a decrease of more than nine percent over the past twenty-four hours. Additionally, the Metaverse Select and Culture and Entertainment indexes have both dropped over five percent.
In contrast, gold-backed tokens such as PAXG and XAUT have seen gains, buoyed by the ongoing rise in spot gold prices. Worldcoin's WLD has also surged by five percent.
Turning to traditional markets, we observe that oil prices have climbed to four-month highs across the Atlantic, potentially reigniting inflationary pressures within the global economy. This renewed energy-led inflation could complicate matters for the Federal Reserve in future rate decisions.
As we reflect on the evolving narrative surrounding Bitcoin and its role in our financial landscape, we invite you to pause and consider: What does sound money truly mean in this context?
We encourage you to share your thoughts and insights with us, as we continue to explore the profound implications of these developments together.

Citrea, backed by Founders Fund and Galaxy Ventures, seeks to revolutionize Bitcoin-denominated credit markets with its new mainnet and a Treasury-backed stablecoin, poised for seamless U.S. dollar settlements.

Imagine a world where your Bitcoin is not just a digital asset sitting idle but a powerful tool for financial freedom. This is exactly what Citrea, a groundbreaking application platform supported by Peter Thiel's Founders Fund and Galaxy Ventures, is striving to achieve. Recently unveiled, their mainnet opens a new frontier, allowing Bitcoin to be utilized directly for lending, trading, and settling in U.S. dollars.
But there’s more to this story than just technology. Citrea introduces ctUSD, a stablecoin fully backed by short-term U.S. Treasury bills and cash. Issued by MoonPay, this token is crafted to comply with the GENIUS Act framework, ensuring it meets regulatory standards while providing an innovative solution for Bitcoin users. This is not merely a stablecoin; it's a lifeline for those looking to engage in institutional-grade financial activities anchored securely to Bitcoin.
As Citrea positions itself, it reveals a vision where Bitcoin becomes the backbone for liquidity and settlement, free from the constraints of intermediaries or wrapped Bitcoin. Co-founder and CEO of Chainway Labs, Orkun Kilic, emphasizes this transformative approach, stating that their mainnet is designed to bring Bitcoin-secured financial activities on-chain, facilitating lending and institutional credit through ctUSD.
Now, here's where the stakes rise. Citrea has already secured funding amounting to sixteen million seven hundred thousand dollars across two rounds, highlighting the growing interest in Bitcoin-focused innovations. As they carve their niche, they join a competitive arena filled with other ambitious projects aiming to maximize Bitcoin's potential. Think about the implications: instead of letting your Bitcoin gather digital dust, you can now leverage it for lending, transactions, and even stablecoin issuance.
What’s even more exciting? Citrea claims that over thirty Bitcoin-native applications are ready to cater to users seeking diverse financial use cases. This is a clear signal that the landscape is evolving, urging platforms to expand Bitcoin’s role beyond mere passive holding.
As we reflect on this evolution, consider what it means for your financial future. The shift from passive investment to active participation in the Bitcoin ecosystem is not just a trend; it’s a revolution in how we perceive and use money.
So, as you ponder the potential of Citrea and its ambitions, what do you think about harnessing your Bitcoin for more than just storage? Share your thoughts below and let’s explore this new frontier together.

Strive's latest offering not only attracted overwhelming interest, but also surged beyond its initial goal, raising two hundred twenty-five million dollars.

Have you ever witnessed a company maneuvering through a sea of debt, only to emerge with a treasure trove of Bitcoin? That’s precisely what Strive, a Bitcoin treasury firm, has accomplished. In a daring move, they successfully raised two hundred twenty-five million dollars through the sale of their SATA preferred stock.
The excitement surrounding this offering was palpable. With over six hundred million dollars in orders, Strive had to upsize their ambitions from an initial target of one hundred fifty million dollars. This overwhelming demand signifies something deeper—investor confidence in the potential of sound money in a world rife with monetary confusion.
But what does this mean for Strive? The proceeds from this remarkable offering allowed them to significantly reduce their debt, particularly following their acquisition of Semler Scientific. They managed to retire one hundred ten million dollars of legacy Semler debt, which included the conversion of ninety million dollars in convertible notes into SATA stock. Additionally, they completely repaid a twenty million dollar loan to Coinbase Credit.
Now, picture this: Strive stands with one hundred percent of their Bitcoin holdings unencumbered. They are not just surviving; they are thriving. Plans are already in place to eliminate the remaining ten million dollars of debt by April twenty twenty-six, ahead of their original timeline. This is not merely a financial maneuver; it is a strategic restoration of freedom through sound money.
But wait, there’s more. Strive didn’t just stop at debt reduction. They took a bold leap and acquired an additional three hundred thirty-three Bitcoin at an average price of eighty-nine thousand eight hundred fifty-one dollars. This move brings their total holdings to an impressive thirteen thousand one hundred thirty-one Bitcoin, positioning Strive as the tenth largest public corporate holder globally. At Bitcoin’s current price of eighty-nine thousand one hundred dollars, this treasure trove is valued at over one point one billion dollars—a staggering figure that speaks to the enduring value of sound money.
Yet, despite these achievements, Strive's shares are facing pressure, dipping by one point five percent early Wednesday to eighty-one cents. This juxtaposition of triumph and tension invites us to explore the intricate dance of market dynamics and investor sentiment.
As you reflect on Strive’s journey, consider what it means for the future of sound money in our increasingly complex financial landscape. Are we witnessing the dawn of a new era, where Bitcoin and sound monetary principles reclaim their rightful place?
Join us in this conversation. What are your thoughts on the implications of Strive’s bold moves?

Sygnum Bank and Starboard Digital have attracted more than sixty-five million dollars for their innovative Bitcoin investment fund, delivering an impressive eight point nine percent annualized return in its initial quarter.

Swiss digital asset bank Sygnum Bank, alongside Starboard Digital, has successfully gathered over seven hundred fifty Bitcoin, valued at more than sixty-five million dollars at current market rates, for its Bitcoin investment vehicle.
This venture, known as the Bitcoin Alpha Fund, is not just any fund; it is engineered to create yield from Bitcoin holdings without depending on the volatile price increases often associated with cryptocurrency investments.
Launched in October of last year and domiciled in the Cayman Islands, this fund reported an eight point nine percent annualized net return in its first complete quarter. It aims for annual returns between eight and ten percent, meticulously capturing price variances between spot and derivative markets.
But what really sets this fund apart? It employs systematic arbitrage strategies—an approach that seizes on pricing discrepancies across different exchanges. This method provides a potential framework for generating steady returns, regardless of the broader market's fluctuations.
As we observe the financial landscape, it becomes evident that there is a burgeoning demand among institutional investors for Bitcoin strategies that not only yield income but also preserve long-term exposure. Markus Hämmerli, Sygnum's head of portfolio management, emphasizes this shift towards income-generating strategies.
The fund is accessible to professional investors in select jurisdictions, including Switzerland and Singapore, opening doors to a wider audience interested in Bitcoin investments.
Moreover, shares in the fund come with additional benefits. They are eligible as collateral for Lombard loans through Sygnum, providing a unique opportunity for investors to unlock liquidity without relinquishing control over their Bitcoin positions.
Earlier this year, Sygnum joined forces with the Bitcoin lending startup Debifi to introduce what they claim is the first bank-backed loan platform that allows borrowers to maintain ownership of their Bitcoin, a significant step in the evolution of financial services around digital assets.
As we reflect on these developments, we invite you to consider the implications. What does this mean for the future of Bitcoin as a reliable asset class? Let’s explore these questions together.
Feel free to share your thoughts below—your perspective could illuminate this fascinating dialogue.

In this week’s exploration, we delve into the essential role of risk ratings in the DeFi landscape and how they can influence capital deployment on-chain.

Welcome, dear viewer, to our insightful conversation on the evolving world of decentralized finance, or DeFi. Today, we’re diving into a critical topic: risk ratings and their significance in navigating the complexities of on-chain capital allocation.
Have you ever wondered why some DeFi projects seem to flourish while others crash spectacularly? As we observe the landscape, we see a pattern — risks accumulating over time, often ignored until it’s too late. Just consider the collapse of TerraUSD. Did it fall apart overnight? No, capital was still flowing in even as the red flags waved. The illusion of stability masked the underlying dangers.
Fast forward to November two thousand twenty-five, when xUSD, a synthetic stablecoin from Stream Finance, lost its peg after a staggering loss of ninety-three million dollars. There was no sudden trigger; instead, the risk had quietly built up, waiting for the moment it could no longer be contained.
We must shift our perspective. These aren’t black swan events; they are manifestations of a deeper systemic issue. DeFi may offer a revolutionary approach to pricing yield, but the necessary information to gauge risk accurately remains elusive. What we truly need is not just data on potential returns but clarity on the probability of failure. This is where risk ratings come into play, becoming ever more crucial in the deployment of capital on-chain.
So, what exactly constitutes a DeFi risk rating? Traditional credit ratings often rely on outdated analyst judgments, leading to catastrophic failures, as seen in Iceland’s financial collapse. Many DeFi risk tools echo this flawed model, offering static reports that do little to inform investors effectively.
A true DeFi risk rating must adapt to a dynamic environment, continuously evolving with liquidity and market conditions. This is where platforms like Credora shine, refreshing their risk assessments daily. Imagine transforming risk evaluation from a mere snapshot into a real-time pulse that guides your exposure decisions — that’s the vision.
At Credora, the core metric is the probability of significant loss, or PSL. This innovative measure assesses the annualized risk of losing more than one percent of your principal due to bad debt. Unlike traditional volatility metrics, PSL focuses on tail risks, giving you a clear letter grade from D to A. This simple yet powerful tool empowers investors to make more informed decisions rather than chasing raw yield.
Now, let’s consider the implications of these risk ratings. They create a common language for investors, allowing them to weigh the yield-to-risk ratio before committing capital. Some may prefer the safety of A-grade strategies, while others might venture into higher-yield, higher-risk territories. The key here is transparency; if the risk of a project like UST had been rated as a “C” with a thirty percent probability of loss, many investors might have thought twice, potentially saving billions.
Credora’s innovative approach measures risk where it truly manifests, using a three-layer stack that incorporates simulations. It evaluates asset quality, market dynamics, and governance mechanisms, ensuring that risk ratings serve as early-warning signals. This proactive approach allows for a more nuanced understanding of yield in relation to risk.
As we navigate through protocols like Morpho and Spark, the importance of live, explainable risk profiles becomes clearer. Users can make informed decisions right at the point of capital allocation, increasing the likelihood of successful investments.
For risk-aware DeFi to flourish, risk ratings must become standard practice. Imagine wallets and financial platforms allowing users to filter strategies by risk grade, or AI agents guiding decisions based on these ratings. By twenty twenty-six, we envision a landscape where risk ratings are not just optional but essential, facilitating the flow of trillions of dollars on-chain while safeguarding against unnecessary risks.
Now, let’s shift our focus to Bitcoin. It seems to be struggling to maintain its “digital gold” narrative amid rising geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, Ethereum is gearing up for a post-quantum future, and regulators are slowly embracing the crypto space.
But what does this mean for Bitcoin? As we’ve seen, it has some explaining to do. After an early January rally fizzled, traditional assets like gold and silver are outshining Bitcoin. The narrative begins to fracture as institutional interest shifts.
Amidst these shifts, we must ask ourselves: what is Bitcoin’s value proposition now? The clash between the “digital gold” image and gold’s tangible scarcity is palpable. Can Bitcoin rebuild its narrative without sacrificing its independence?
As we contemplate the future, we invite you to reflect with us. How do you perceive the evolving landscape of risk ratings in DeFi, and what does it mean for the future of sound money? Share your thoughts with us, for this conversation is just beginning.

The Federal Reserve's latest decision to maintain interest rates signals a dramatic shift in market expectations, shedding light on the struggles of Bitcoin and the crypto landscape.

Imagine a world where the decisions of a single institution can send ripples through markets, shaping the financial future of millions. This is the reality as the Federal Reserve decided to hold interest rates steady, a choice that marks a significant pivot in the narrative surrounding monetary policy. Just a few short months ago, the air buzzed with speculation about a potential rate cut in early twenty twenty-six.
"Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization," the Federal Reserve stated in their policy announcement. Amidst this backdrop, inflation remains a persistent specter, hovering over the economy like a dark cloud.
However, not everyone agrees with the decision. Two members of the Federal Reserve dissented, with recent appointee Stephen Miran and Chris Waller—rumored to be a contender for the chair position—advocating for a twenty-five basis point cut. Their voices add a layer of tension, suggesting that not all is harmonious within the central bank's ranks.
As Bitcoin hovered just below eighty-nine thousand five hundred dollars in response to the Fed's decision, the broader implications for the crypto market began to unfold. U.S. stocks remained relatively unchanged, while the dollar surged after a recent drop. Gold, on the other hand, continued its ascent, reaching near record levels at five thousand three hundred dollars per ounce, highlighting the contrasting fortunes of different assets in this complex financial landscape.
Only two months prior, the market was rife with uncertainty, with traders grappling over a potential cut that was priced at more than forty percent. This uncertainty has now evaporated. As we moved closer to the meeting, the consensus shifted dramatically, with nearly one hundred percent of market participants anticipating no changes to policy. This decisive turn effectively extinguished hopes for any near-term easing, solidifying the belief that the Federal Reserve would maintain a restrictive stance through the first quarter.
While the door to early cuts appears closed, the story does not end here. Market participants are not expecting a resumption of cuts at the next meeting in March, with odds from the CME FedWatch tool sitting at a mere sixteen percent. Hopes rise slightly for April, where chances improve to around thirty percent. "The U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates reflects persistent inflation concerns and a stabilizing economic backdrop. This likely results in near-term volatility for crypto markets as liquidity remains supportive," remarked Nick Ruck, Director of LVRG Research, in a message shared on Telegram. The question now looms—what will Jerome Powell convey in his post-meeting press conference? Will he adopt a cautious stance, reinforcing a ‘higher-for-longer' narrative that could exert pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin?
As we contemplate these developments, pause for a moment. What does this mean for you? The landscape of sound money and individual freedom is shifting beneath our feet, revealing both challenges and opportunities. Engage with us, reflect on the implications, and let your thoughts resonate in this evolving conversation.

Tokenized gold is redefining the traditional allure of precious metals, while Bitcoin faces challenges as a risk asset in tumultuous times, according to industry experts.

In a landscape where digital asset markets seem stagnant, you might be surprised to learn that crypto investors are flocking to tokenized gold, propelling inflows to Paxos' gold token to unprecedented levels in January.
Paxos Gold, known as PAXG, is backed by physical gold securely stored in London’s prestigious LBMA vaults. This month alone, it attracted over two hundred forty-eight million dollars in fresh investments, pushing its market capitalization beyond two point two billion dollars. This puts PAXG just behind another token, known as XAUT, which has reached a staggering five thousand five hundred forty-six dollars and thirty-one cents.
But what’s driving this surge? Gold is experiencing a remarkable rally, recently crossing five thousand three hundred dollars per ounce. It has skyrocketed twenty-two percent just in January and has gained over ninety percent in the past year. In stark contrast, Bitcoin has experienced a decline of over ten percent in the same timeframe, leading many to reevaluate their investment strategies.
This shift is capturing the attention of crypto investors, many of whom are seeking the stability that blockchain-based gold offers amid an unpredictable economic climate. James Harris, the Chief Executive Officer of the crypto yield platform Tesseract Group, notes that “the growing traction of tokenized gold has improved gold’s utility, particularly around transferability and divisibility.”
Tokens like PAXG and XAUT allow for fractional ownership of physical gold, simplifying the process of transferring value through blockchain technology. You can now hold a centuries-old store of value without the hassle of traditional vaults.
The market for tokenized gold has now surpassed five point five billion dollars, reaching an all-time high as both inflows and gold prices continue to elevate the sector.
As we reflect on these developments, consider how the nature of value is evolving. Are you ready to explore what this means for the future of your investments?
Your thoughts could shape the conversation, so share them with us. What do you think about the rise of tokenized gold in today's market?