TraderS 缺德道人

Since last Friday, China's commercial aerospace stocks have performed impressively, as China submitted applications to the ITU (International Telecommunication Union) for 200,000 satellite frequency and orbital slots. Such an enormous number has injected tremendous imagination into rocket launches, satellite manufacturing, ground base stations, low-altitude economy, onboard chips, and tracking and control sectors, driving massive production capacity and extending the industrial chain significantly, while also creating a large number of jobs.

However, the most critical aspect of this application lies in securing orbital resources on a first-come, first-served basis. Just as the development of 3G, 4G, and 5G required securing wireless frequency bands, low Earth orbits are limited and cannot be reserved only when needed in the future—avoiding the risk of being constrained later.

Currently, this field is primarily dominated by Elon Musk's Starlink system, with approximately 42,000 satellites applied for.

China's previous reserves: mainly the 'Guowang' (GW) and 'Qianfan' (G60) constellations, totaling about 26,000 satellites applied for.

This new application: 203,000 satellites across 14 constellations. Of these, approximately 190,000 were led by the newly established 'national team'—the Radio Spectrum Utilization and Technology Innovation Institute (full name: Radio Frequency Spectrum Utilization and Technology Innovation Research Institute).

Notably, according to ITU rules, the applications must be activated within 7 years, 10% of the satellites must be launched within 9 years, and all must be deployed within 14 years. This means that to retain these 200,000 slots, China's aerospace industry must achieve 'exponential' growth in launch capacity over the next few years.

Given China's industrial capabilities—often referred to as 'Industrial Cthulhu'—it is widely believed that China can indeed accomplish launching these 200,000 satellites. No one doubts China's production capacity.

This implies that a new round of space race between China and the U.S. is about to begin.

Both Chinese and American aerospace sector stocks will present significant investment opportunities, and even the cryptocurrency market might ride on this wave of excitement.

The Federal Reserve's official website quickly posted Powell's statement.
https://federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20260111a.htm At this moment, Trump's continuous pressure may stem from the following considerations:

1. Political level: Although Powell's term as Chair of the Federal Reserve ends in May 2026, his term as a Board member extends until January 2028. In the history of the Federal Reserve, it is extremely rare for a former Chair to remain on the Board after stepping down (the last time was Mariner Eccles after World War II). This would create significant embarrassment—new Chair would have to make policy decisions with a highly respected former Chair who holds opposing views sitting beside them. The former Chair would inevitably become a leader of opposition, undermining the new Chair's authority and potentially causing division within the Federal Reserve. Therefore, Trump is essentially applying maximum pressure on Powell in advance, using legal and reputational attacks to push him to resign not only as Chair but also as a Board member. It could also serve as a warning to other Federal Reserve officials: failure to cooperate with the White House could lead to personal legal risks.

2. Economic level: There may be deteriorating asset quality in areas unseen by the public (particularly commercial real estate, private credit, credit cards, or small banks). After maintaining high interest rates for so long, a critical liquidity valve may be on the verge of breaking. Trump's team may have access to worse internal economic data than the public. They urgently need the Federal Reserve to cut rates significantly, halt quantitative tightening (QT), and even restart QE to stabilize the economy. However, Powell emphasizes 'evidence-based and economic conditions,' meaning he is unwilling to cut rates prematurely under political pressure before official data (inflation, employment) collapses. For Trump, this is unacceptable, as a crisis could impact midterm elections. He may prefer to inflate the bubble further with monetary easing before the crisis erupts.

Regardless of the final outcome—whether Powell stays or goes, whether Hasset or Walsh takes over—the independence of the Federal Reserve has already been factually compromised. If the Federal Reserve becomes fully subservient to the Treasury or the White House (e.g., whoever takes office becomes a subordinate of Bessen), markets could panic and seek safety, which is one of the deeper reasons behind the continuous rise in gold prices.

If the current geopolitical situation continues to escalate, it's just a matter of time before gold breaks through $5,000. $XAUUSDT

#伊朗 #格陵兰 #委内瑞拉 #鲍威尔 #XAU

It should be noted that although Powell will step down as Chair of the Federal Reserve in May this year, he will remain a member until 2028. As long as the former chair stays within the existing organizational structure, it will be difficult for a new chair to establish authority. Therefore, Trump may want to quickly vacate this position and replace it with someone loyal. Everyone knows that the investigation into Powell is just an excuse—Powell knows it, Trump knows it, we know it, and they know that we know it. Under such open circumstances, continuing with this move must mean they are aiming to achieve their goals.

Trump never stops working, he's already starting a criminal investigation against Powell, apparently eager to force him to resign. This suggests the urgency for rate cuts is quite high. Perhaps the fundamentals are already weak behind the scenes, which means the risk of black swan events is quite high. Stay alert.

Recently, it's been rumored that American oil companies are hesitant to enter Venezuela. They're not foolish—they're very concerned this might be a 'pig butchering' scheme. The oil industry is a capital-intensive, long-cycle business. Not to mention that investments in equipment and personnel could easily run into tens of billions of dollars. Even if everything is set up perfectly, the forces that could betray Maduro today could just as easily betray oil capital tomorrow. The invested funds could easily end up as nothing.

The Great Ming Dynasty 1566 is still so authoritative—this situation was already recorded long ago... The court urgently needed money for military expenses to suppress the Wokou pirates, but the Huizhou merchants were unwilling to take over Shen Yishí's workshop...

Then and there, it was just like now and here.

CME traders are now betting on a 5% chance of a rate cut in January, confirming that there will be no rate cut in January, as there is neither room nor necessity. PS: Trump has plenty of off-the-books moves to make money.

Tonight, focus on the AI sector in the US stock market, as DeepSeek is scheduled to release its next-generation flagship AI model in February. The sudden emergence of DeepSeek last年初 had a significant impact on the US stock market.

Reposting the article before the 9 o'clock non-farm data release:

Less than half an hour until the major non-farm data is released. Today, another high-profile event is the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's tariff authority. As previously mentioned, recent global focus has been on the collapse of the existing international order, with massive changes in geopolitical rules also serving as part of Trump's strategy to shift domestic attention. After all, whether it's cutting interest rates, raising tariffs, or seizing territory, the underlying reason is that the previous U.S. dollar cycle failed to yield sufficient returns.

Whether it's Japan's 550 billion yen contribution or Venezuela's 30 to 50 million barrels of oil, these are all efforts to plug fiscal gaps. The recently popular concept of the "killing line" actually reflects structural issues arising from the continuous decline in living standards among the U.S. middle and lower classes and the hollowing out of industry since World War II.

Even yesterday's ICE murder case, which made headlines in the U.S., is a localized manifestation of the broader issue of resource scarcity. As surplus resources are reduced, the U.S. is forced to expel undocumented immigrants to free up living space.

Returning to the non-farm data itself: if the numbers remain decent, it suggests that temporary employment stability has been achieved through expelling immigrants and forcing manufacturing back (even if only on paper).

If the data collapses, then the aforementioned "external plundering" tactics (tariffs, oil seizures) will become more aggressive and extreme. The worse the data, the more violent the foreign policy will be.

This is why the market is so tense. If the Supreme Court confirms Trump's absolute power to impose tariffs under the IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act), it would mean the U.S. has formally legalized and institutionalized "plunder."

If the Supreme Court limits Trump: in the short term, it's a positive signal (the market gets a breather, believing order still exists), but this will push Trump to seek money elsewhere (e.g., more aggressive pressure on allies).

If the Supreme Court allows it: the market will realize "the rules are dead," and the dollar may surge short-term due to power, but global supply chain assets (shipping, non-U.S. currencies) will be devastated.

We are witnessing an empire attempting to rebuild its balance sheet through "external plunder and internal pressure." If tonight's data is poor, it will only accelerate this process.

The long positions opened in the afternoon were forgotten to be posted on the square. For such major macro events, opening positions is actually simple. 90,000 has been a repeatedly contested level recently and is unlikely to drop significantly. Before major macro data release, there is usually risk-averse sentiment in the market, but it generally rebounds after the data is released. So, we just do the opposite. Go short if it's already risen before the event, go long if it's already fallen. This strategy has consistently proven effective and is a high-probability short-term tactic.

Tonight's U.S. macro data was released, with the December unemployment rate at 4.4%, slightly below the previous value and the expected 4.5%. The non-farm payroll increase was 50,000, lower than the previous 56,000 and the expected 60,000. Generally speaking, weaker employment data favors rate cuts, but a rate cut in January is unlikely.

When BTC retraces below 90,000, its cost-effectiveness will start rising again. Look at how much precious metals have surged now. Once the market realizes BTC is undervalued, it will come back. Capital always rotates among different assets. In a liquidity-flooded cycle, no asset will stay stagnant forever.

Binance really listens to feedback! Just a few days ago I complained, and now I've just found out that Silver has already been listed $XAGUSDT

Since Trump successfully captured Maduro, the U.S. market has been energized like it was injected with stimulants. Even the crypto market has been boosted, with Bitcoin not only approaching the 95,000 mark, but also $DOGE and $PEPE—typical forerunners in each market cycle—showing renewed activity. Today marks a milestone on Binance Life's spot market, as it's the first Chinese-language token. This could signal the start of a new market cycle. If Bitcoin can rebound to the psychological 100,000 level, it would significantly boost market confidence.

Silver is about to break through the consolidation range today; once broken and stabilized above 80, it will continue to target 90 and even the 100-yuan mark.

With the continuous surge in demand for AI large model training and inference, data centers are experiencing explosive growth in demand for high-performance storage, particularly enterprise SSDs and high-bandwidth NAND Flash. The market widely believes that, following GPUs, storage chips are entering a 'super cycle' driven by AI. As a pure-play player in this field, SanDisk is directly benefiting from this supply-demand imbalance. SanDisk's stock has surged by 20%.

It remains to be seen whether blockchain-based storage assets like $FIL, $STORJ, $AR can ride this wave of momentum.

The United States has only arrested Maduro so far without fundamentally overthrowing Venezuela's regime; I guess the considerations might be as follows:

1. The cost of reconstruction is too high; Venezuela's state-owned oil company (PDVSA) is already paralyzed. To restore production, capital expenditure on the scale of hundreds of billions of dollars would be required.

2. Maintaining normal social order within Venezuela would be too costly. Despite Venezuela being the country with the world's largest oil reserves and a tropical climate, it remains so poor. This is partly due to long-term sanctions from external factors, and partly due to internal factors such as national character, culture, and political system. These cannot be changed in the short term.

3. By demonstrating a 'show of force' against Maduro, the U.S. aims to pressure domestic factions into submission, turning opposition into a compliant proxy. If the current regime cooperates, they may support the vice president as a stand-in; if not, they would back domestic opposition forces to take power.

4. Achieving quick tactical victories rather than getting bogged down allows for maximum benefit. After all, Trump can gain prestige, and oil and gas resources can be swiftly transferred to big capital for rapid monetization and fiscal gain—this would be very advantageous for the midterm elections.

In short, although this operation appears somewhat crude, it is still a concrete manifestation of Trump's pragmatism. He is not against war, but against risky actions or those requiring excessive personal cost. If there is an opportunity with such high cost-effectiveness, he will certainly take it. Meanwhile, it also proves that the U.S. military's tactical capabilities (at least when facing weaker opponents) are effectively implemented. During last night's press conference, after Trump and Haley finished speaking, the general in charge of execution clearly appeared to be a professional civil servant, and the overall capability remains solid.

The energy heart of the United States— the massive refinery complex along the Gulf of Mexico (PADD 3) was designed decades ago specifically to process heavy sour crude oil.
Structural mismatch: The shale oil produced in the United States is light sweet crude oil. U.S. refineries "consume" this oil not only inefficiently but also with thin margins (because the equipment is designed for cracking heavy molecules, processing light oil is akin to using a sledgehammer to crack a nut).
Current situation: U.S. refineries are currently forced to import heavy oil at high prices from Canada (transportation bottlenecks) or Mexico (decreasing production), and they even had to buy from Russia previously.
The benefits after taking over: With Venezuelan heavy oil returning, U.S. refineries (like Valero, Chevron, Marathon) will obtain the ideal raw materials that are closest in transportation distance and lowest in cost worldwide. This will significantly enhance the crack spread, that is, refining profits.