Last night, $BTC went below 96.5k for the first time since November, breaking out of the range where we've been trading for over a month.
Essentially, we're seeing exactly what we've discussed multiple times as the base scenario: removal of liquidity clusters above 96k prior to a potential strong downward move.
What are our short-term options? Ideally, we'd like to see $BTC close above 95k — this would confirm a local uptrend and give the market room to 'breathe': shake out alts, memes, and embrace new narratives. In such a case, the next target would be the second major liquidity cluster in the 98–100k range, though a move into this zone currently seems unlikely.
If the price fails to hold above 95k, then a pullback to 87–88k is highly probable within the next 1–2 weeks.
The market is currently green, and alts have slightly increased. For those holding positions or long-term token holders, this is a good opportunity to partially take profits at higher prices. Altseason is clearly not imminent, but during this 'green phase,' local opportunities will emerge that must be acted upon promptly and not missed. So get involved and keep your finger on the pulse.
The table above shows how narratives changed throughout the past year. Notably, no stable 'meta' emerged that lasted more than a month — almost every month the market shifted to a new narrative.
Perhaps this is one of the market's issues: narratives quickly arose and just as quickly faded, failing to fully realize their potential.
Generally, markets need stability — even if there are fewer narratives, they should last longer. $ETH $BTC $XRP
Already today at 5:00 PM Kyiv time, the US Supreme Court will issue a decision on repealing Trump's tariffs.
Currently, the market estimates the probability of their repeal at 32%.
It is still unclear what decision can be considered positive for the crypto market, but in any case, be prepared for significant movements in both directions. $BTC $ETH
🔔 Vitalik Buterin: the market needs futures on gas
Vitalik says that currently the fees in Ethereum are low, but no one knows for sure what they will be in a couple of years. He proposes to create a futures market on gas, where people will be able to:
⚪️Find out what the market expects from future fees. ⚪️Hedge against their increase, ⚪️Prepay for gas for a certain period.
So it will be like a "prediction" and a hedge for future gas expenses. Soon we will be longing gas at $ETH ? #бутерин
Everyone is used to evaluating crypto by market cap, but if you look at the actual revenue that projects generate, the picture changes completely:
⚪️$SOL — the main revenue generator in the industry. Priority fees, MEV, perps, NFT, tokens, Firedancer, mobile — provides 35–45% of real revenue, having only 5–7% of the total market capitalization.
⚪️$ETH (+ L2) still produces a huge economic effect, but after L2 compression its dominance in fees is no longer the same: 25–35% of revenue with 15–20% mCap.
⚪️$BTC occupies 50%+ of the market by capitalization, but only provides 2–5% of revenues — logically: it is a monetary asset, not a business. But this clearly shows how misleading market cap comparisons can be.
⚪️All others (AVAX, BNB, Tron, Cosmos, meme coins, DeFi) share only 15–25% of the revenue.
If we look at the economy, the hierarchy is currently as follows:
Looking at the sales chart $BTC by regions, an interesting picture emerges:
Since the beginning of November, all regions — the USA, Europe, and Asia — are selling $BTC more than they are buying, although before that stable purchases were clearly visible.
In the last week, there has been a slight buyback from the USA and Europe (which coincides with the V-shape on Bitcoin), while Asia continues to maintain sales volume.
Tom Lee: a third of the market makers have disappeared 😱
"On October 10, the crypto market experienced an 'Armageddon' and recorded the largest wave of liquidations in BTC history: nearly 2 million accounts were wiped out, and a third of the market makers disappeared from the market."
By the way, Tom Lee has already changed his stance and now predicts $100k+ instead of $250k by the end of the year for $BTC . #TomLee
The ratio of long to short positions on Binance has risen to 3.8 — a maximum in more than three years.
The Block metric accounts for the balance of the 20% largest users. Just over a month ago, when $BTC reached an all-time high above $126,000, this ratio was at a multi-year low below 0.6.