avoid

1. **做你的研究**：了解市场并彻底评估项目。
2. **多样化**：分散投资于多种加密货币以降低风险。
3. **设定目标和限额**：定义明确的投资目标并使用止损订单。
4. **随时了解最新信息**：密切关注市场趋势和新闻。
5. **实践风险管理**：只投资您可以承受的损失；考虑美元成本平均法。
6. **避免情绪化交易**：不要让 FOMO 或 FUD 影响您的决定。
7. **保护您的投资**：使用硬件钱包并启用双因素身份验证。

Ladies and gentlemen, let me first ask you to imagine this scenario:
Today you’re playing a game, and I give you two choices—
Option one: You can take $5,000 for sure.
Option two: You have a 50% chance to get $10,000, but also a 50% chance to get nothing at all.
Alright, raise your hand—who would choose the first option?
(Some people in the audience laugh and raise their hands)
And how about those who would pick the second?
Most people lean toward the first option, because the security of a guaranteed reward feels far more attractive than gambling for a bigger prize.
⸻
Now, let’s flip the situation:
This time, you’re facing a loss.
Option one: You will definitely lose $5,000.
Option two: You have a 50% chance of losing $10,000, but also a 50% chance of losing nothing.
Okay, raise your hand again—which one do you choose this time?
(The audience hesitates, and some even switch to choosing the second option)
Interesting, isn’t it? When it comes to gains, most people avoid risk.
But when it comes to losses, people become willing to take a gamble.
⸻
This is exactly what Prospect Theory wants to show us:
Human decision-making is not entirely rational.
We are not machines calculating “expected value”—we are emotional beings.
We fear losses. In fact, the pain of losing is about twice as strong as the pleasure of gaining.
That’s why we often rush to lock in small profits, but refuse to admit defeat when facing big losses.
We double down, hoping to “break even,” and end up sinking deeper.
⸻
This sounds just like the investment market—but it applies far beyond that.
In daily life too:
• We’d rather buy insurance and spend money to “avoid loss,” than put aside more savings to build future wealth.
• In negotiations, we’re hypersensitive to “losing benefits”—even if it’s just missing out on a slightly better deal, we feel cheated.
⸻
So, the most striking part of Prospect Theory is not simply pointing out that “people are irrational”—we already knew that.
Its power lies in how it uses data and experiments to map out this irrationality so clearly that it can even predict:
When we will feel fear, and when we will take risks.
#RiskAnalysis
Friends, the next time you face a choice, try asking yourself:
“Am I really weighing the risks and rewards, or am I just afraid of losing?”
If you can recognize that in the moment—congratulations.
You’ve already stepped outside of the human “trap” described by Prospect Theory.
If you had 1,000 dollars and could steadily earn a few hundred more after a year, would you be willing to patiently wait and collect it?
Story: Xiao Hua and the Scratch Card
After work, Xiao Hua passed by a convenience store and noticed a row of scratch cards displayed at the counter.
#scratchcard
The clerk smiled and said:
“Buy one now—guaranteed prize! At least 100 NT dollars!”
Xiao Hua thought to himself:
“Guaranteed 100 NT? It’s not much, but at least I can’t lose!”
So he pulled out 200 NT and bought one. Sure enough, he scratched it and won 100 NT.
He felt a little happy, but also thought:
“Sigh, if only I had bought another one—maybe I could’ve won 1,000 NT.”
The next day, Xiao Hua passed by again. This time, the clerk said:
“Special promotion today! Buy one, and you have a 50% chance to win 1,000 NT.
But if luck’s not on your side, you might get nothing.”
Xiao Hua hesitated.
“Yesterday’s 100 NT was safe. If I lose today, that’s 200 NT gone.”
But when he imagined “what if I hit 1,000 NT,” he felt the itch of temptation.
In the end, he chose to take the risk.
This is a perfect reflection of Prospect Theory in everyday life:
When faced with a guaranteed gain, people tend to be conservative, preferring the small but certain happiness.But when faced with a guaranteed loss, people become risk-seeking, willing to gamble for a chance.
So yesterday, Xiao Hua feared losing his “safe 100 NT,” and chose the conservative option.
But today, afraid of a “certain 200 NT loss,” he went for the 50% gamble instead.
#Avoid

各位朋友，請你先想像這樣一個場景：
今天你參加一個遊戲，我給你兩個選擇——
第一個選項：你百分之百可以拿到 5,000 元。
第二個選項：有 50% 的機會拿到 10,000 元，但也有 50% 的機會一毛錢都沒有。
好，請舉手，會選第一個選項的？
（台下有人笑著舉手）
那麼，選第二個的呢？
多數人，會傾向第一個選項，因為「確定拿到」的安全感，遠比去賭一個大獎還有吸引力。
⸻
接著，我把問題換個方式：
現在你要面對的是損失。
第一個選項：你一定會損失 5,000 元。
第二個選項：有 50% 的機會損失 10,000 元，但也有 50% 的機會完全不會虧。
好，再舉手，這次你選哪個？
（觀眾開始猶豫，甚至有人改選第二個了）
有趣吧？剛剛面對「收益」時，大部分人是風險迴避的；
可一旦面對「損失」，卻反而變得願意「賭一把」。
⸻
這就是 前景理論（Prospect Theory） 想告訴我們的事實：
人類的決策，不是完全理性的。#人性分享
我們不是在計算「期望值」的機器，而是充滿情緒的動物。
我們害怕損失，甚至對「失去」的痛苦，要比「得到」的快樂強烈兩倍。
於是，我們常常在小賺時急著落袋為安，卻在大虧時死不認輸。
我們會為了「不想承認輸」去加碼攤平，結果越陷越深。
⸻
這聽起來很像投資市場，但不只如此。
生活裡也一樣。
• 我們寧願去買保險，花錢「避免損失」，卻不願意多存一點錢累積未來收益。
• 我們在談判時，對「失去的利益」特別敏感，哪怕只是比別人少一點優惠，都覺得吃虧。
⸻
所以，前景理論最震撼人的地方，不在於它告訴我們「人不理性」，這一點大家早知道；
而是在於它用數據和實驗，把這份不理性刻畫得清清楚楚，甚至能夠預測：
什麼時候我們會害怕，什麼時候我們會賭一把。
⸻
各位朋友，當你下次面對選擇時，不妨問問自己：
「我是因為真的計算過風險報酬，還是因為害怕失去？」
如果你能夠在當下意識到這一點，恭喜你——
你已經跳脫了前景理論所描述的「人性的陷阱」。
#人性在利益面前千变万化
故事：小華的刮刮樂
小華下班經過便利商店，看到櫃檯擺著一排刮刮樂。
店員笑著說：「現在買，保證中獎！至少 100 元起跳！」
小華心裡想：
「保證 100 元耶！雖然不多，但至少穩賺！」
於是他掏出 200 元買了一張，結果真的刮中 100 元。
他有點開心，但又覺得：
「唉，早知道剛剛再買一張，說不定就 1000 元了。」
⸻
隔天，小華又路過，這次店員說：
「今天有特別活動！買一張有 50% 機會中 1000 元，
但要是運氣不好，也可能什麼都沒有。」
小華猶豫了。
「昨天的 100 元很穩啊，這次要是沒中，不就虧 200？」
可是一想到「萬一中了 1000」，心裡又癢癢的。
最後，他居然選擇了冒險。
⸻
這就是 前景理論 在日常生活裡的真實縮影：
• 當面對「確定的收益」時，人會傾向保守，選擇那份穩穩的小確幸。
• 但當面對「確定的損失」時，人反而會變得愛冒險，寧願去賭一把。
所以，小華昨天怕失去「穩賺的 100 元」，選擇保守；
今天怕「一定虧 200」，反而去追那個 50% 的機會。
如果你有1000美金，而每年後你能穩穩的拿到幾百美金的話，你願意放棄一夜致富的夢想嗎？但也可能歸零。