Howie1024

Steady Profit and Effective #逃顶 Review
If you are a steady investor, your goal is to win in the future and to take advantage of cycle dividends as much as possible. This content is suitable for you!

This content was posted on x last night, and the information about the 11.5 peak escape is also on x. If interested, I can transfer it over.

$NDX #纳斯达克 is as strong as expected, making a comprehensive review.

-2 months, the selling plan ratio of #BTC and altcoins, the K-line level is limited and did not sell at the highest point. Crypto began to show a weakening trend from -3 months. From the perspective of US stocks, facing profit pullback and continuation test.

-1 month, happened on 10.11, cost-effective accumulation of altcoins, after data analysis, facing reality delayed Christmas market expectations.

From October 27 to 30, the system liquidity red light gradually lit up, by November 3 it had become extremely serious, on November 4 gave up the buying plan, and adjusted the position ratio again. On November 5, a post was recorded, and on November 6, US stocks began to pull back. Crypto fell accordingly. Another line during this period was also the month of seven sisters' earnings reports, starting from #Tesla, where earnings reports were insufficient to support the stock price, and there were moments of self-doubt as to why the stock market was so strong? Tight liquidity is the clearest decision signal.

Since -3 months, I have been continuously screening altcoin targets and even did a new round of valuation calculations after 10.11. Because TEAM tends to favor low-frequency and left-side traders. Thus, I have also enjoyed the benefits of outperforming many non-contract right-side traders.

Later, during the worst liquidity in the crypto space, leverage was completely cleared. This behavior has often occurred in the past and belongs to calculating liquidity and yield ratios at the right time. In contrast, US stocks are relatively strong and unwilling to break down. We expect the compression of crypto by US stocks to replay, as in March to April, but the result was the opposite. Another factor is the SEC's pessimistic comments on interest rate cuts in December guiding the situation. Therefore, a series of scripts like showing you dead to force you to yield are staged, which have been tried and true.

On weekends and holidays, #SEC's "clever guidance" shows a clear hint of interest rate cuts, #polymarket data instantly reversed, and crypto stopped falling. #SEC has shifted from finding technical reasons to more explicit statements, and US stocks opened as expected.

Starting from November 5, the focus completely shifts away from specific targets and is basically focused on a macro perspective.

Exceeding word count, split into the next article.

After the New Year, thoughts on the market

Yesterday, #Trump (#川普 ) captured #Maduro (#Maduro) and fulfilled campaign promises in a way that turned heads.

Regarding my views on the market:
1 The premise is still the capital overflow effect.
2 Liquidity, apart from the slight tightening on December 31, was at a normal level in the previous week.
3 The logic of a weak dollar holds.
4 The first safe-haven overflow battlefield -- gold and silver, is worth paying attention to on the March delivery date, whether it will phase out before overflowing into other markets.
5 U.S. stocks #Tesla's performance fell short of expectations; is there an opportunity for index-level adjustments and pullback buying? It may be logically possible to wait for a low point. This cycle is all a structural bull market (in an unconventional sense), and the final script is the same as liquidity comes in; time will reveal everything.
6 Bet on crypto or U.S. stocks?
I believe there's a greater opportunity in crypto; the growth potential of leading U.S. stocks is limited, and below mid-cap stocks, there is no crypto with elasticity.
7 As a primarily left-side investor, I do not want the technical lines to drag down the overall strategy. If the market is examined closely, it may find an entry window based on economic data, balancing positive and negative factors and the strength of U.S. stocks (January, February, April), or it may find a comfortable buying point due to the SEC chairman's appointment, which could deterministically change market sentiment.
8 Before the details are clarified, regularly investing based on the broad direction to catch bottoms usually does not yield poor results.

#美股 #ETH #比特币2026年价格预测

#strategy增持比特币 What is the use of this information? Useless for contracts. The medium-term cost supports that the market will reference. Buying is reasonable, and fundraising -> investment is a continuous process, where smoothness takes priority over minor cost differences. During a market downturn, #DAT the company's role is greater than #ETF . The essence of perspective differs in that only sufficiently large targets like #BTC can bear this set of game rules. When the liquidity improves, the secondary stock market will be leveraged BTC, making it easy to see that both currencies and stocks can win by extending the water release cycle.

2025 Crypto Market Ultimate Review: Where does your 'sense of achievement' really come from? (Part Three)

Small Tracks and Attention Consensus Carnival (High Wave α Layer)

This is the stage where attention and liquidity collide violently, the source of most 'wealth creation myths' and 'participation thrill'.

1 Meme Coin: The Unstoppable Emotional Engine

It is no longer a 'joke', but the most efficient tool for consensus formation and liquidity hotspot detection. Successful Memes must possess strong cultural symbols and contagious community stories. Meme culture is deeply rooted in crypto, appearing in both the hottest and coldest times in the past. In a period of declining mainstream asset performance, the eye-catching effect is evident. During the Five Dynasties and Ten Kingdoms period, dynasties rapidly replaced one another, abdication was no longer a thing, divine beasts no longer appeared, and there was no need to seek ancient sages; one could ascend the throne directly.

AI Agent: The Wildest Resemblance to Early DeFi

The key is not perfect technology, but whether it can be clearly 'imagined' as a new species—an on-chain AI entity that can automatically trade, govern, and socialize. It combines the imagination of AI, DeFi, autonomous systems, and Memes.
The thinking model needs to adjust according to market emotions, as mainstream imagination and attention pace surpass rigorous reasoning. 'I am not buying coins; I am funding and participating in an experiment that may change the rules of human-machine collaboration.'

DePIN: The King of Integration

From coining words to the DePIN of all things. It combines hardware incentives with grand narratives. From routers and environmental sensor networks to AI-themed distributed computing clusters. It gives investment a tangible sense of 'building the physical world'. Almost all 3C categories are involved. Can the path of DePIN be traversed? Yes, the premise for this is cost reduction and efficiency improvement.

【Ultimate Law】 Narrative Overlap

The highest annual increase often comes from composite narratives such as 'Meme × AI Agent', 'DePIN × Environmental Data', and 'Agent × Social'. A single narrative is not enticing enough; 'narrative multiplication' +

Low Market Value = Non-linear Increase.

Most Dangerous Rationally, Most Addictive Emotionally

Source of Achievement: 'I understood the community sentiment as value earlier than the market' or 'I discovered a story that others didn't understand'

#MEME #AI #DePIN

2025 Crypto Market Ultimate Review: Where Does Your Sense of Achievement Come From?

Second Layer: Rotation of Mainstream Narratives (Early α Sources)

#AI + Crypto and #RWA

AI Track: The macro environment of the U.S. stock market runs parallel with crypto. It has moved from concept to a segmented phase. Decentralized computing power, data markets, AI agents and DeFi, among other imaginative combinations. It can also be divided into infrastructure + models + applications, with a more nuanced classification from agents to frameworks at the application level. The concepts are constantly evolving, but the essence is the ability to capture value, which is directly influenced by proximity to money and affects market performance. Funds are willing to repeatedly validate, but caution is needed against technical bubbles.

RWA Track: Becoming the "Value Stock" of the Crypto World. The yields of on-chain U.S. treasury bonds and other products have begun to attract retail investors, with a long narrative lifespan and small drawdowns, making it the main battlefield for institutions and conservative investors.

The core is to invest in growth that you can understand.

The benchmark thought, an inappropriate analogy is Peter Lynch, who captures clear growth directions and trends through fundamental research and heat (the analysis of risk-reward ratios is equally important). Crypto investors are good at finding new narrative tracks and trending tracks. If the leading company in the #defi track requires professional knowledge for valuation assessment, these two tracks are relatively early where attention and trends are easier to capture and should not be missed.

Sense of achievement comes from: "I'm not chasing trends; I'm proactively laying out the infrastructure for the next generation of the internet or the on-chain version of traditional finance."

2025 Cryptocurrency Market Ultimate Review: Where Does Your 'Sense of Achievement' Really Come From? (Part One)

Some say 2025 is of hell-level difficulty, but looking back at the whole year, $BTC $ETH reached new highs and still many opportunities presented themselves.

A simple and straightforward division from β returns to α celebration
Cryptocurrency is the traditional α, while BTC and ETH are the β of cryptocurrency.

First Layer: Market and Institutional Dividend (Sense of Security Layer)

BTC ETH new highs + spot #ETF continuous capital inflow + #DAT + #GENIUS Act establishes the global compliance tone.

Provides risk-free β returns, raises the overall valuation lower limit of the industry when the greatest uncertainty (regulatory crackdown) is removed. The tentative entry of sovereign funds is a signal of qualitative change.

This is the cornerstone of positioning, providing a sense of security and cycle confirmation, without astonishing excess returns.

In several meetings in the U.S. in 2025, one can feel the enthusiasm of institutions for mainstream assets. From the perspective of individual investors, OGs still hold mainstream assets for the long term, while newcomers allocate less. It's somewhat similar to the old man's strategy, as holding positions is equivalent to investing in the S&P 500.

Sense of Achievement Comes From: 'I am standing in a long-term trend that is accepted by the world mainstream financial system.'

#复盘

Holiday light + Stable interest rates + New trends emerging behind the operations of major players

The Christmas holiday has led to the closure of many global markets, making the US stock market an 'island.' This structural liquidity shortfall has slightly declined, and cryptocurrency continues to show weakness, continuing to 'draw the door.'

Monitoring the interest rate market over the past week shows stability, with no lack of liquidity, and current economic policies are effective.

No unforeseen bad news has occurred.

The largest options settlement in history (nominal value of $23.7 billion) $BTC has been completed, with pressure released, surprisingly without a ripple, and the future settlement prices have risen.

BitMine has gradually completed the staking of $400 million worth of ETH, fully committing to long-termism. Arthur Hayes continues to layout DeFi tokens such as #LDO , #PENDLE , #ENA , and #ETHFI .

As the holiday ends, we can安心等待逢低定投.

So, what do you think?

Based on the current situation of the dollar breaking 7, I wrote a longer piece discussing the similarities and differences in asset price trends under different economic fundamentals.
#美元 #利率 #美股 #BTC

The real entry points are often hidden in the delivery date rather than in emotions.

Recently, due to continuous business trips, I haven't had time to organize detailed market information, here are a few suggestions:

Short-term sentiment is relatively pessimistic, but the real entry points are often not in the emotional end, but in the "delivery end."
Focus on futures/options delivery dates, especially options delivery, not emotional speculation.

Large institutions are not foolish, and they rarely resist the trend.
Their core principle is only one: follow the trend and increase positions when certainty appears.
This is also why—when it comes to rhythm judgment, experienced investors often outperform institutions.

The summary reports from institutions like Coinbase reflect their investment direction. I will elaborate on this when I have time.

#BTC #ETH #期权交割 #链上数据 #市场情绪

After two consecutive days of decline in the US stock market, #CPI provided a surprising piece of data, and it is unclear whether it aligns with the real perception of prices. The US stock market is quite resilient; every time there is a drop, good news tends to emerge. The Federal Reserve has a basis for 'technical' operations, and the hawks are quietly closing their mouths... while the doves are making a lot of noise.
Is the long-desired quantitative easing, #量化宽松 , really coming?
What script will be played out again tomorrow when Japan announces its interest rates?
Investors are like those downstairs listening to the boots, counting how many legs the centipede upstairs still has wearing boots.
In the midst of a flood of complex news, investors easily get lost in short-term fluctuations and noise. However, returning to the essence and anchoring the core main line — that is, the policy cycles of major global central banks and the basic trends of the macroeconomy — is often the most reliable guide to navigate through the fog.

Core CPI 2.6% is the lowest level since 2021, and the crypto choice rebounds. No matter how the data comes, the inflation argument is no longer valid, and the hawks are silent. Is this the rhythm towards easing? Tomorrow, watch the Japanese interest rate hike.
#cpi #通胀 #放水

🚀Japan's monetary policy meeting time for short-term and long-term market considerations, has the opportunity arrived?

1 First, let's talk about the chip structure -- not great. From the perspective of a solid market, it doesn't look comfortable enough.

2 The Japanese monetary policy meeting is a buying opportunity worth paying attention to. Note that I said opportunity; risk-sensitive money seeks certainty.

Let's first talk about Japan:
Why pay attention to the monetary policy meeting? It's not the general opinion of 0.75 on the market's impact. If executed as planned, there seems to be no problem, and it is fully digested. The focus is on whether there will be any unexpected issues.
Now let's talk about Japan and the US:
Under the trend of interest rate cuts, the dollar tends to weaken, and the pressure on the Japanese exchange rate is a positive trend, which is beneficial in the long term.

Now let's talk about liquidity:
Currently, there seems to be no major issues with market liquidity (when there are issues, I tweeted about it on November 4th, and if there are liquidity problems again, I will likely tweet about it), and the long-term trend of easing has begun. The logic of capital outflow is valid.

From a deleveraging perspective, there are two important time periods to note.
1 Clarity to eliminate unexpected issues.
2 The last market accumulation explosion of Carry Trade in August developed from July to August, and there are clues in the market, especially in the 24 hours before the explosion. This is not alarmist but a neutral statement. Previously, I discussed Carry Trade chip structures and other issues on Twitter; if interested, please look for it yourself, I won't elaborate further.

Summary:
1 Danger is an opportunity; the trend of quantitative easing coexists with crisis, and opportunity outweighs danger.
2 The unsightly chip structure is a fact, and the reopening dates of Europe and the US are also there.
3 As a left-side investor, the long-term trend is the key principle. This moment is worth focusing on, seeking crisis and short-term (three months) certainty, gradually looking for opportunities to build positions in escaping top chips.

The above does not constitute investment advice; it is a self-summary and sharing of knowledge and action. Different opinions are welcome for discussion.

#日本加息 #carrytrade #流动性

Revisiting the Yen Interest Rate Hike Crisis is Just Fooling Around!!!
The matter of the Yen interest rate hike has already been fully digested by the market.
Its impact on the market occurs when liquidity is poor, and the dollar's interest rate cut remains undecided.
It can be used to operate emotionally.
On the day the President of the New York Federal Reserve makes a statement, the Yen interest rate hike is no longer the main focus.
The certainty of the U.S. interest rate cut and the time difference from the monetary policy meeting have given Japan time, alleviating Japan's current foreign exchange pressure.
When everyone knows, it is no longer a black swan; it can be considered a gray rhinoceros.
Are we still concerned about the Yen? Focus on the trend of depreciation and the breakthrough of the annualized interest rate of 1%.
It's not about excessive interpretation of news that matters; it's about whether the data changes exceed the safe value that counts.
#日元加息

The traditional financial data has been massively 'put on the chain' for the first time! A silent financial infrastructure revolution has begun.

A crucial passage has been opened in the high wall between traditional finance and the on-chain world. The data department of @TMXGroup, a major exchange operator in Canada, announced that it will publish its real-time market data on the blockchain through the institutional-level data service #DataLink, using @Chainlink .

TMX Group operates stock market data such as the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX). The data provided by its data department TMX Datalinx is on par with Wall Street-level professional market data.

They will provide the first batch of real-time market data (including information from over 1,600 companies on the TSX Venture Exchange) to over 2,400 DeFi protocols across more than 40 blockchains through the Chainlink oracle network.

In the past, we analyzed that professional financial institutions would choose $link for #RWA data to go on-chain. TMX, as the first professional company to initiate large-scale application, has taken a step towards the 'tokenization' of more traditional assets (stocks, bonds, funds) in the future.

Crypto beneficiaries:
The Chainlink ecosystem solidifies its leading position and will attract more data providers to follow. Its commercial revenue enters the #LINK reserve treasury.
DeFi developers and the crypto ecosystem, DeFi Lego fill in the gaps themselves.

#预言机 #LINK