硅谷居士搬运号

Deep Analysis of Global Stock Market Returns

It is a well-known fact that the U.S. stock market, as the leader of the global capital market, has an enormous scale, accounting for approximately 40% of the total global market capitalization.

Not only is the U.S. market massive in size, but its performance has also been remarkable. As of the end of 2025, the S&P 500 Index—the benchmark for the U.S. large-cap market—achieved an astonishing average annual return of 11.1% over the past 50 years!

This phenomenon has led many online users to question: shouldn't the stock markets of emerging countries with higher GDP growth rates, such as India, outperform the U.S.?

However, the reality is different. There is actually only a very weak positive correlation between a country's GDP growth rate and its stock market returns. In certain specific situations, the two even show a negative relationship.

To illustrate this point more clearly, let's ignore tax factors and simply compare the historical returns of the U.S. stock market with those of other major global economies. The following data covers the average annual return and cumulative investment return over the past decade for each market.

First, we compare the overall performance of the U.S. market with that of "Emerging Markets" and "Developed Markets." Emerging markets include rapidly rising developing regions such as Brazil, India, and South Africa; while Developed Markets refer to mature markets outside the U.S., including Western Europe, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and Canada.

**Regional Performance Comparison:**

| Region | 10-Year Annualized Return | Cumulative Return |
| :--- | :--- | :--- |
| **United States** | **14.7%** | **295%** |
| Developed Markets | 8.7% | 130% |
| Emerging Markets | 8.2% | 120% |

The data clearly shows that, as a whole, emerging market stock returns significantly lag behind those of developed markets outside the U.S. This undeniable fact strongly refutes the common assumption that "higher GDP growth leads to higher stock market returns." At the same time, even within the developed market group, non-U.S. markets underperform significantly compared to the U.S.

Let’s do the math: If you had invested $100,000 in the U.S. stock market 10 years ago, you would now have $395,000. But if you had chosen to invest in developed markets outside the U.S., your portfolio would be worth only $230,000—about 58% of the U.S. return.

Even more disappointing is that if you had bet on high-growth emerging markets, you would end up with just $220,000—only 57% of the return from investing in U.S. stocks!

Some might argue that broad market categories may mask individual high-performing markets, dragging down the average. So let’s focus on a few specific countries of particular interest to Chinese investors, to see whether their individual stock markets can truly stand out.

**Performance Comparison of Major National Stock Markets:**

| Region | 10-Year Annualized Return | Cumulative Return |
| :--- | :--- | :--- |
| **United States** | **14.7%** | **295%** |
| Canada | 12.4% | 222% |
| Italy | 11.1% | 187% |
| France | 9.8% | 155% |
| South Korea | 9.5% | 148% |
| India | 8.8% | 132% |
| Australia | 8.0% | 116% |
| Germany | 7.9% | 114% |
| Singapore | 7.9% | 114% |
| Japan | 7.8% | 112% |
| United Kingdom | 7.7% | 110% |
| China | 5.4% | 69% |

From the table above, it is clear that even when competing individually, the U.S. market remains at the top. Take India as an example: if you had invested $100,000 10 years ago, you would now have $232,000—only 59% of the return from investing in U.S. stocks!

In conclusion, my position is clear: the U.S. stock market is undoubtedly the strongest stock market in the world!

Notably, the vast majority of companies in the S&P 500 Index are multinational corporations. On average, about 40% of their revenue comes from outside the United States. Therefore, investing in the U.S. stock market index essentially means capturing the benefits of global economic and population growth.

For this reason, I sincerely recommend: focus your investments on the U.S. market alone. There is no need to diversify into foreign markets under the guise of "risk reduction," as doing so will most likely reduce your overall investment returns.

There is a classic American saying: "If you can't beat them, join them!"

My ultimate investment advice is: cherish your life and wealth—go all-in on U.S. stocks! Abandon individual stock picking and invest only in index funds!

If you wish to learn more about my investment and financial management insights, please visit Amazon or Google Play Books to purchase and read my Chinese financial book "The Shortcut to Wealth," or its English edition "The Shortcut to Wealth: Your Simple Roadmap to Financial Independence."

Google's market capitalization successfully broke through the $4 trillion mark!

The moment was frozen on January 12, 2026, when Google's market cap officially crossed the $4 trillion threshold.

Since Google chose to exit the Chinese market in 2010, its stock has surged by an astonishing 27 times!

During the same period, Baidu's stock increased by only 120%.

Google's market capitalization successfully broke through the $4 trillion mark!

On January 12, 2026, Google's market cap officially crossed the $4 trillion milestone!

Since Google announced its exit from the Chinese market in 2010, its stock has risen by a cumulative 27 times!

During the same period, Baidu's stock increased by only 120%.

**Deep Analysis and Ranking of Global Stock Market Returns**

It is well known that the U.S. stock market, as the 'leader' of the global capital market, accounts for about 40% of the total global stock market capitalization. Not only is its scale enormous, but its return performance is also remarkable. Data shows that by the end of 2025, the S&P 500 Index—the barometer of U.S. stocks—achieved an average annualized return of 11.1% over the past 50 years.

In response to this phenomenon, some netizens have raised questions: Given that emerging countries like India have higher GDP growth rates, should their stock market returns logically surpass those of the United States? The facts tell us otherwise. There is only a very weak positive correlation between a country's GDP growth rate and its stock market return, and in certain specific situations, the two may even show a negative correlation.

To verify this, let's set aside tax factors and compare the U.S. stock market with other major global economies using data from the past decade. We will divide the comparison into two categories: emerging markets (such as Brazil, India, South Africa, and other developing countries) and developed markets outside the United States (including Western Europe, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Canada, etc.).

**Performance Comparison of Major Market Segments Over the Past Decade:**

| Region | Decade Annualized Return | Cumulative Return |
| :--- | :--- | :--- |
| United States | 14.7% | 295% |
| Developed Markets | 8.7% | 130% |
| Emerging Markets | 8.2% | 120% |

The data clearly reveals an undeniable fact: as a whole, emerging market stock returns are not only far behind those of the United States, but even lag behind developed markets outside the U.S. This irrefutable data strongly refutes the common assumption that high GDP growth necessarily leads to high stock market returns. At the same time, even developed markets outside the U.S. significantly underperform U.S. stocks.

In terms of actual investment returns, if you had invested $100,000 in the U.S. stock market 10 years ago, your assets would now be worth $395,000. In contrast, if you had invested in developed markets outside the U.S., your assets would be only $230,000—about 58% of the U.S. return. Even more disappointing, if you had bet on high-growth emerging markets, you would end up with just $220,000, equivalent to only 57% of the return from investing in U.S. stocks.

Some might argue that the overall mediocre performance is due to underperforming markets dragging down the average. To conduct a more rigorous analysis, let’s focus on specific countries of interest to Chinese investors and examine their individual performances:

**Top Countries’ Stock Market Performance Rankings Over the Past Decade:**

| Region | Decade Annualized Return | Cumulative Return |
| :--- | :--- | :--- |
| United States | 14.7% | 295% |
| Canada | 12.4% | 222% |
| Italy | 11.1% | 187% |
| France | 9.8% | 155% |
| South Korea | 9.5% | 148% |
| India | 8.8% | 132% |
| Australia | 8.0% | 116% |
| Germany | 7.9% | 114% |
| Singapore | 7.9% | 114% |
| Japan | 7.8% | 112% |
| United Kingdom | 7.7% | 110% |
| China | 5.4% | 69% |

As shown in the table above, even in country-by-country comparisons, U.S. stocks remain unmatched. Taking India as an example: if you had invested $100,000 a decade ago, your current assets would be approximately $232,000—only 59% of the return from investing in U.S. stocks.

In summary, my conclusion is clear: the U.S. stock market is undoubtedly the strongest stock market in the world.

It should be emphasized that the constituent stocks of the S&P 500 Index are mostly multinational giants, and as a whole, about 40% of their revenue comes from outside the United States. Therefore, investing in the U.S. stock index essentially means benefiting from the global economic and population growth dividends.

For this reason, I recommend focusing solely on investing in U.S. stocks. There is no need to allocate assets to foreign markets under the false pretense of 'diversification risk reduction,' as such a strategy will most likely lower your overall investment return.

As the famous American saying goes: "If you can't beat them, join them!"

Here is my core investment advice: Cherish life—go all-in on U.S. stocks! Abandon individual stocks—invest only in index funds!

If you wish to learn more about my investment and financial management insights, please visit Amazon or Google Play Books to purchase my Chinese financial book *The Shortcut to Wealth*, or its English version *The Shortcut to Wealth: Your Simple Roadmap to Financial Independence*.

Comprehensive Analysis of Global Stock Market Returns

One undeniable fact is that the U.S. stock market, as the leader of the global capital market, has an enormous scale, with its market capitalization accounting for approximately 40% of the total global stock market value.

Not only is the U.S. market massive in size, but its investment returns are also remarkable. Data shows that as of the end of 2025, the S&P 500 Index—the benchmark for the U.S. large-cap market—achieved an astonishing average annual return of 11.1% over the past half-century!

This phenomenon has led many internet users to question: shouldn't the stock markets of emerging countries like India, which have higher GDP growth rates, outperform the U.S.?

However, the reality is different. There is only a very weak positive correlation between a country's GDP growth rate and its stock market returns. In certain specific circumstances, the two even show a negative relationship.

To verify this, let’s conduct a simple cross-market comparison of historical returns between the U.S. stock market and major economies around the world. The following data presents the average annual returns and cumulative investment returns over the past decade for each market (note: taxes have been ignored for simplicity).

First, we compare the U.S. market with the overall performance of "Emerging Markets" and "Developed Markets." Emerging markets include developing countries or regions such as Brazil, India, and South Africa that have risen rapidly economically; Developed Markets refer to Western Europe, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Canada, and other countries excluding the United States.

**Region** | **10-Year Annualized Return** | **Cumulative Return**
--- | --- | ---
United States | 14.7% | 295%
Developed Markets | 8.7% | 130%
Emerging Markets | 8.2% | 120%

The data is clear: as a group, emerging market stocks have significantly lower returns than developed markets outside the U.S. This irrefutable data strongly refutes the common misconception that "higher GDP growth leads to higher stock returns." At the same time, stock markets in non-U.S. developed countries also significantly underperform the U.S. domestic market.

Let’s do a concrete calculation: if you had invested $100,000 in the U.S. stock market 10 years ago, your account would now be worth $395,000. But if you had chosen to invest in developed markets outside the U.S., your current assets would only amount to $230,000—just 58% of the return from investing in U.S. stocks.

Even more striking is that if you had bet on high-growth emerging markets, your current assets would be only $220,000—about 57% of the return from investing in U.S. stocks!

Some may argue that the overall figures might be dragged down by a few poorly performing markets. So let’s examine the performance of specific countries that are of particular interest to Chinese investors, to see if their individual performances stand out.

**Region** | **10-Year Annualized Return** | **Cumulative Return**
--- | --- | ---
United States | 14.7% | 295%
Canada | 12.4% | 222%
Italy | 11.0% | 184%
France | 9.8% | 155%
South Korea | 9.5% | 148%
India | 8.8% | 132%
Australia | 8.0% | 116%
Germany | 7.9% | 114%
Singapore | 7.9% | 114%
Japan | 7.8% | 112%
United Kingdom | 7.7% | 110%

From the table above, it is evident that even when compared individually, the U.S. market remains unmatched. Take India, a popular choice, as an example: if you had invested $100,000 there 10 years ago, you would now have only $232,000—just 59% of the return from investing in U.S. stocks.

Based on the data above, my conclusion is clear: the U.S. stock market is undoubtedly the strongest stock market in the world!

Moreover, it is worth noting that the vast majority of the S&P 500's constituent companies are multinational giants. As a whole, they derive about 40% of their revenue from outside the United States. This means that by investing in the U.S. stock index, you are already benefiting from global economic development and population growth.

For this reason, I sincerely recommend focusing solely on investing in U.S. stocks. There is no need to diversify into foreign markets under the guise of "risk reduction," as doing so will very likely lower your overall investment returns.

As the famous American saying goes: "If you can't beat them, join them!"

Here is my core investment advice: cherish life, go all-in on U.S. stocks! Abandon individual stocks and invest only in index funds!

If you wish to learn more about my investment and financial management insights, please visit Amazon or Google Play Books to purchase my Chinese financial book "The Shortcut to Wealth," or its English version "The Shortcut to Wealth: Your Simple Roadmap to Financial Independence."

Global Stock Market Return Rankings: In-Depth Comparison and Analysis

We must acknowledge an undeniable fact: the U.S. stock market, as the world's largest capital market, accounts for approximately 40% of the global stock market's total market capitalization.

The U.S. market is not only massive in scale but also delivers outstanding returns. Looking back at the past 50 years up to the end of 2025, the S&P 500 Index—representing the U.S. large-cap market—has delivered an astonishing performance: an average annual return of 11.1%!

Frequently, internet users raise the following question: countries like India, as emerging economies, have relatively high GDP growth rates, so their stock market investment returns should surpass those of the United States.

However, the facts tell a different story. There is only a very weak positive correlation between a country's GDP growth rate and its stock market returns; in certain specific contexts, the two can even show a negative correlation.

To illustrate this point more clearly, we will briefly compare the historical returns of the U.S. stock market with those of other major global economies. For each market, we list the "average annual return" and "cumulative investment return" over the past ten years. (Note: For simplicity, tax effects are ignored in these calculations.)

First, we compare the U.S. market against the overall performance of "emerging markets" and "developed markets." Emerging markets include rapidly rising developing countries or regions such as Brazil, India, and South Africa; developed markets refer to advanced economies outside the United States, including Western Europe, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and Canada.

| Region | 10-Year Annualized | Cumulative Return |
| :--- | :--- | :--- |
| United States | 14.7% | 295% |
| Developed Markets | 8.7% | 130% |
| Emerging Markets | 8.2% | 120% |

The data speaks for itself: as a whole, emerging market stocks not only failed to lead but actually significantly underperformed developed markets outside the U.S. This undeniable data once again disproves the common assumption that "the faster the GDP growth, the higher the stock market returns." Meanwhile, even developed markets outside the U.S. have shown markedly weaker performance compared to the U.S.

Let’s do the math: if you had invested $100,000 in the U.S. stock market ten years ago, your assets would now be worth $395,000. But if you had chosen developed markets outside the U.S., your current assets would only be $230,000—just 58% of what you’d have earned from investing in U.S. stocks.

That’s not the worst part. If you had chosen the high-GDP-growth emerging markets instead, your assets would now be only $220,000—just 57% of the return from investing in U.S. equities!

Perhaps some might argue that overall data could be dragged down by poorly performing markets. So let’s take a closer look at several major stock markets of particular interest to Chinese investors to see if their performance brings any surprises.

| Region | 10-Year Annualized | Cumulative Return |
| :--- | :--- | :--- |
| United States | 14.7% | 295% |
| Canada | 12.4% | 222% |
| Italy | 11.1% | 187% |
| France | 9.8% | 155% |
| South Korea | 9.5% | 148% |
| India | 8.8% | 132% |
| Australia | 8.0% | 116% |
| Germany | 7.9% | 114% |
| Singapore | 7.9% | 114% |
| Japan | 7.8% | 112% |
| United Kingdom | 7.7% | 110% |

From the table above, it is clear that even when compared individually, the U.S. stock market remains at the top. For example, if you had invested $100,000 in the Indian stock market ten years ago, your current assets would be approximately $232,000 (note: original logic corresponds to this figure)—just 59% of what you’d have earned from investing in U.S. stocks!

In summary, my conclusion is very clear: the U.S. stock market is undoubtedly the strongest stock market in the world!

Additionally, it is worth noting that the constituent stocks of the S&P 500 Index are mostly multinational giants. As a whole, these companies derive about 40% of their revenue from regions outside the United States. This means that investing in the U.S. stock market index effectively allows you to benefit from global economic and population growth.

For this reason, I sincerely recommend: investing in U.S. stocks alone is sufficient. There’s no need to diversify into foreign markets under the pretext of "risk reduction," because doing so will very likely lower your overall investment returns.

As the famous American saying goes: "If you can't beat them, join them!"

Here is my final investment advice: cherish life—go all-in on U.S. stocks! Stop picking individual stocks; just invest in index funds!

If you’d like to learn more about my investment and financial management experience and unique insights, please visit Amazon or Google Play Books to purchase my Chinese financial book *The Shortcut to Wealth*, or its English version *The Shortcut to Wealth: Your Simple Roadmap to Financial Independence*.

Global Stock Market Return Rankings

One undeniable fact is that the U.S. stock market is the largest in the world, accounting for about 40% of the total global market capitalization.

Not only is the U.S. market large in scale, but its returns are also impressive. As of the end of 2025, the average annualized return of the S&P 500 index, which reflects the overall U.S. stock market, reached an astonishing 11.1% over the past 50 years.

Some netizens have raised doubts, arguing that emerging markets, such as India, should have higher stock returns due to their higher GDP growth rates.

In reality, there is only a very weak positive correlation between a country's GDP growth rate and its stock market returns, and in some cases, the relationship is even negative.

Below, we’ll briefly compare the historical returns of the U.S. stock market with those of other major global economies. For each market, I list the average annualized returns over the past ten and fifteen years, along with the cumulative investment returns over the past fifteen years. For simplicity, tax factors are ignored.

First, we compare the U.S. market with the overall emerging markets and developed markets. Emerging markets include developing countries or regions such as Brazil, India, and South Africa. Developed markets include developed countries outside the U.S., such as Western Europe, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and Canada.

Region 10-Year 15-Year Cumulative Return
U.S. 13.4% 14.7% 712%
Emerging Markets 5.8% 4.4% 100%
Developed Markets 7.9% 6.7% 189%

It’s clear that, as a whole, emerging market stocks significantly underperform developed markets outside the U.S. This undeniable fact further refutes the assumption that higher GDP growth necessarily leads to higher stock returns. Meanwhile, stock market returns in developed markets outside the U.S. also significantly lag behind those of the U.S.

If you had invested $100,000 in the U.S. stock market 15 years ago, you would now have $810,000. But if you had invested in developed markets outside the U.S., you’d have only $290,000—just 36% of the U.S. result.

But that’s not the worst. If you had invested in high-growth emerging markets, you’d have only $200,000—just 25% of what you’d get from investing in U.S. stocks!

Perhaps someone might argue that, as a group, some emerging or developed markets perform poorly and drag down the overall return. Let’s take a look at a few markets of particular interest to Chinese-speaking investors to see if their performance is more impressive.

Region 10-Year 15-Year Cumulative Return
U.S. 13.4% 14.7% 712%
South Korea 7.9% 7.4% 192%
Canada 8.7% 7.2% 184%
Japan 8.0% 7.0% 176%
Germany 7.0% 7.0% 176%
India 7.4% 6.9% 172%
France 8.9% 6.8% 168%
UK 6.3% 6.4% 150%
Singapore 5.3% 5.9% 136%
Australia 6.5% 5.7% 130%
Italy 10.5% 5.6% 126%

From the table above, it’s clear that even when compared individually, the U.S. stock market still stands far above the rest. For example, if you had invested $100,000 in the Indian stock market 15 years ago, you’d now have only $27,200—just 33% of what you’d get from investing in U.S. stocks!

Therefore, my conclusion is: the U.S. stock market is undoubtedly the strongest stock market in the world!

Moreover, the majority of companies in the S&P 500 are multinational corporations. As a whole, they generate about 40% of their revenue from outside the United States. Therefore, investing in the U.S. stock market index already allows you to benefit from global economic and population growth.

For this reason, I recommend investing in the U.S. stock market alone—there’s no need to diversify into foreign markets in the name of risk reduction, as doing so could very likely reduce your investment returns.

There’s a well-known American saying: "If you can’t beat them, join them!"

My investment advice to you is: cherish life, go all-in on U.S. stocks! Abandon individual stocks and invest only in index funds!

If you’d like to learn more about my investment and financial management insights, please visit Amazon or Google Play Books to purchase my Chinese financial book "The Shortcut to Wealth," or the English version "The Shortcut to Wealth: Your Simple Roadmap to Financial Independence."

Investment and Finance Jokes Collection

1. The pain of selling stocks at a loss is even worse than divorce: at least divorce only takes half your assets, but after selling at a loss, you've lost half your wealth, yet your spouse is still around.

2. My wallet is like an onion—every time I open it, I can't help but cry.

3. I launched a virtual currency called 'Haha Coin,' whose fundamentals are purely speculation and outdated jokes.

4. After teaching my kids the basics of inflation, the consequences were serious: now when I ask them to clean their rooms, their price has jumped from $10 to $20.

5. I diversified my jokes, but now they just keep getting worse in different ways.

6. Budgeting is like dieting—everyone talks about it, but no one really enjoys doing it.

7. I chose index funds because my jokes already carry enough risk; I'd rather keep my investments stable.

8. With the market so depressed, my 401(k) retirement account is shrinking too fast—now I can only call it a 201(k).

9. My technical analysis method is about as reliable as fortune-telling—full of hope, but utterly confusing.

10. True financial management consists of 90% behavioral habits, 10% math calculations, and 100% psychological stress.

11. My brokerage account is just like dating—full of uncertainty and emotional swings.

12. My investment performance is like a relationship: unstable, with poor returns.

13. I just calculated my net worth, and after doing so, I burst into tears.

14. I asked AI how to save money, and even the AI laughed itself silly.

15. I don’t spend recklessly—I’m just investing in future 'regret'.

16. The stock market is a rollercoaster for the wealthy, but I can’t even afford the ticket.

17. I wanted financial freedom, but my expensive coffee habit said, 'Not a chance!'

18. I hoped my stock account would grow and appreciate quickly, but instead, it started throwing tantrums at me!

19. My wallet seems to be on a diet—watching it get thinner and thinner every day.

20. I treat financial advice like healthy salad—on paper, I know it’s good, but in reality, I never want to touch it.

21. I once thought 'high-interest savings' was a joke—turns out, it really is a joke!

22. Don’t say I’m overspending—I’m contributing to economic stimulation!

23. I’m not spending carelessly—I’m just investing in 'instant gratification'!

24. I use spreadsheet software to meticulously track just how broke I’ve become.

25. For retirement planning, I’m counting on winning the lottery once!

26. There are three types of people in this world: those who can count, and those who can’t.

27. My investment portfolio has a plotline more dramatic than a soap opera—except there are no commercials in between.

28. I view dividend income the way I view someone else’s praise—rare, but always appreciated.

29. Investing without research is like skydiving without a parachute—initially thrilling, but inevitably tragic.

30. I never try to predict an economic downturn—I usually just take a long nap and sleep until it’s over.

Comprehensive Guide to U.S. Family Social Security Benefits: How Much Can You Receive in Retirement?

For many retirees living in the United States, Social Security retirement benefits form a crucial part of their income. According to the latest data released by the Social Security Administration (SSA), the average monthly Social Security benefit for retirees in 2025 is approximately $2,000.

Notably, the SSA adjusts benefits annually based on the previous year's inflation rate. For example, the adjustment for 2026 has already been set at 2.8%.

We recommend visiting the SSA website (https://t.co/2HIUCDj8Nt) to create a personal account and view your customized official report. This report will summarize your historical Social Security tax contributions and provide an estimate of your expected Social Security income in retirement.

It is widely known that most individuals only need to pay Social Security taxes for 10 years to qualify for retirement benefits. Of course, the amount received follows the principle of "the more you pay, the more you get": the higher your income and the longer your contribution period, the greater your retirement benefit will be.

Therefore, to reach the maximum Social Security benefit, you must meet two strict requirements: you must have worked for 35 years, and your annual income must have been at least equal to the annual Social Security tax wage base limit each year. For 2026, this income limit is set at $184,500.

In addition, the amount of Social Security benefits is closely tied to the age at which you begin claiming. The earliest age to start receiving benefits is 62. For each year you delay claiming, your benefit increases by approximately 8%, reaching a peak at age 70.

Under U.S. law, spousal benefits are also a key safeguard: even individuals who have never worked can receive half of their spouse’s Social Security benefit, with the earliest eligibility age being 62.

For example, if a husband’s full benefit is $50,000 per year, his wife, as a homemaker, could receive $25,000 annually if she chooses to claim benefits at the same time as her husband.

If an individual has their own Social Security benefit, but it is less than half of their spouse’s benefit, the system will pay them half of the spouse’s benefit. If the higher-earning spouse passes away, the surviving spouse’s benefit will automatically be adjusted to the higher amount of the deceased spouse’s benefit.

Suppose you meet all the above conditions for the maximum benefit and plan to start receiving payments in 2026. What would your monthly benefit be?

**1. If you are currently 62 years old:**
You can receive $2,970 per month.
* If your spouse also meets the maximum Social Security benefit criteria, you can receive $5,940 per month together.
* If your spouse has never paid Social Security taxes, your combined monthly income would be $4,455 (i.e., $2,970 + $1,485).

**2. If you are currently 65 years old and begin claiming this year:**
You can receive $4,150 per month.
* If your spouse also meets the maximum Social Security benefit criteria, you can receive $8,300 per month together.
* If your spouse has never paid Social Security taxes, your combined monthly income would be $6,225 (i.e., $4,150 + $2,075).

**3. If you are currently 70 years old and begin claiming this year:**
You can receive $5,180 per month.
* If your spouse also meets the maximum Social Security benefit criteria, you can receive $10,360 per month together.
* If your spouse has never paid Social Security taxes, your combined monthly income would be $7,770 (i.e., $5,180 + $2,590).

For those who have not yet reached these ages, you can still estimate your future Social Security benefits. Typically, benefits are adjusted annually with inflation. Assuming a 3% inflation rate, the result becomes clear.

For example, if you are currently 40 years old and plan to retire at 65, your monthly benefit 25 years from now would be 2.09 times the 2026 standard amount (i.e., 1.03 raised to the 25th power).

Based on the above scenario, your maximum individual benefit at that time would be approximately $8,670 per month. If your spouse also meets the same conditions, the combined maximum monthly benefit for the couple would be about $17,340.

December 2025 'Small Non-Farm' data showed just the right balance

On January 7, 2026, Automatic Data Processing (ADP) in the United States officially released its private sector employment report. Data showed that total employment in the U.S. private sector increased by 41,000 in December, successfully overcoming the previous month's significant decline.

Although this figure slightly fell short of the 50,000 expected by most economists, the trend of employment growth has clearly improved compared to November.

This is undoubtedly the 'Small Non-Farm' data performance that the market most hopes to see right now. It not only reflects that the U.S. economy still possesses strong resilience, without undermining expectations of a soft landing, but also has not triggered any change in market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Currently, pricing from interest rate futures markets still indicates that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates three times in 2026.

Financial Notes #111: Why I Avoid Annuity Products

Recently, I've been frequently asked whether it's worth allocating to annuities. Seizing this opportunity, I'll provide a concise yet in-depth analysis.

**1. Unveiling the Annuity**

First, we need to clarify what an annuity actually is—it's essentially an insurance contract.

Its core mechanism works like this: the policyholder pays funds (either upfront or in installments) to the insurer, in exchange for a promise of fixed payments at either the present or a specific future time. This is primarily designed to address the "longevity risk"—the danger of outliving one's savings while still being alive.

Depending on when the payments begin, annuities are categorized into immediate annuities (starting right away) and deferred annuities (starting later).

From the perspective of investment risk exposure and payout structure, mainstream products can generally be grouped into the following three types:

**1. Traditional Fixed-Income Annuity**
This type offers a constant payment amount, with the interest rate typically locked in at the time of purchase. For example, if you invest $1 million, you'll receive a fixed $40,000 annually (4%) without fail.

Its obvious drawback is weak inflation protection. Assuming a 3% inflation rate, the real purchasing power of $40,000 after 20 years would shrink to just $22,100 in today's terms.

**2. Indexed Annuity**
These products usually tie returns to a specific market index (e.g., S&P 500), but note that insurers do not directly invest in the stock market. Most products guarantee a minimum return (e.g., 0% to 1%), designed to let investors benefit from market gains while protecting principal during market downturns.

**3. Variable Annuity**
Funds are invested in portfolios similar to mutual funds, and final returns depend entirely on the performance of the underlying investments. These products offer no guaranteed minimum return, carry higher risks, and typically come with additional fees.

**2. Why I Avoid Annuities**

According to public data, annuities are a highly niche financial instrument. In the U.S., the primary customer base is retirees aged 65 and above, and even among this group, ownership rates are only about 10%.

The reasons are clear—the product comes with several significant drawbacks:

**1. High Fees**
Annuity management fees typically range from 1% to 3%. In contrast, mainstream index funds charge around 0.1%—a cost difference of 10 to 30 times.

**2. Complex Design**
Annuity products on the market are extremely diverse, and contract terms are often so convoluted that they're nearly impossible to understand. For most seniors, fully comprehending these terms is practically impossible.

**3. Extremely Low Liquidity**
Once purchased, annuity funds are difficult to access flexibly. Whether you want to withdraw early, delay withdrawals, or adjust monthly payment amounts, all are subject to strict restrictions.

**4. Low Returns and Tax Disadvantages**
After accounting for various complex fees, the actual annual return on annuities is only around 4%. More importantly, once you start receiving payments, the income is taxed as ordinary income.

With basic investment knowledge, you can easily build a more robust portfolio. For example: allocate 80% to S&P 500 index funds and 20% to U.S. short-term Treasury bonds. This combination is expected to deliver about an 8.8% annual return. Not only is the return higher, but many sources of income—such as bond interest, fund dividends, and capital gains from selling shares—are typically taxed at lower rates.

**Let’s compare the numbers:**

Assume a 60-year-old investor puts $1 million into an immediate annuity with a fixed 4% return and lives to 90.

Over the 30 years, he receives a total of $1.2 million. After his passing, the annuity’s value drops to zero.

In contrast, if he had managed the above portfolio (80% S&P 500 + 20% U.S. Treasuries) himself and followed the 4% withdrawal rule—drawing 4% of the portfolio annually while the remaining assets grow at 4.8% (i.e., 8.8% minus 4%)—

After 30 years, he would have withdrawn a total of $2.56 million from the portfolio. Even more impressive: he would leave behind an estate worth $4.08 million for his family!

In total, self-managed investing results in a final asset value of $6.64 million—5.5 times higher than the annuity’s return!

Based on this logic and data comparison, I personally do not allocate to annuities, nor do I recommend them to others.

If you'd like to learn more about my investment and financial planning philosophy and real-world experience, please visit Amazon or Google Play Books to purchase my Chinese book *The Shortcut to Wealth*, or its English edition *The Shortcut to Wealth: Your Simple Roadmap to Financial Independence*.

Finance Note #110: How Much Can HSA Save You in Taxes?

Previously, I mentioned that American families should prioritize utilizing tax-advantaged investment channels provided by employers and the government, among which the most advantageous is the Health Savings Account (HSA).

1. Basic Knowledge of HSA

First, to open an HSA account, you need to ensure that your health insurance is a High-deductible Health Plan (HDHP). If your insurance is provided by your employer and that plan does not include this option, you may not be able to open an HSA account.

Second, the operation principle of HSA is quite simple:

1. Employees deposit pre-tax wages into the HSA account and invest within the account. For example, you can choose to invest in the S&P 500 index fund. These investments grow tax-free within the account.

2. Once employees incur medical-related expenses, they can withdraw funds from the HSA to pay the bills without incurring taxes.

It is worth noting that throughout the process, neither the employee's contributions nor the appreciation of assets within the HSA account are subject to government taxes! Therefore, I believe HSA is unique in tax savings.

More surprisingly, the plan allows the use of future HSA funds to pay current medical bills.

For example, if you have a medical bill this year, you can first pay with a credit card (such as using a cash-back credit card) without tapping into the funds in the HSA. After decades, the funds in the HSA will grow several times. At that point, you can withdraw funds from the HSA for reimbursement, and the remaining funds continue to grow. In this process, you do not need to pay a penny in taxes.

If you maintain good health and do not spend the accumulated wealth in the HSA, the IRS allows you to withdraw these funds for other purposes after retirement, paying only the applicable taxes. This is the same as the ordinary pre-tax 401(k) treatment. Therefore, even in the worst-case scenario, it remains an effective tax-saving tool.

As a result, the IRS has set strict limits on the amount that can be contributed to an HSA each year. By 2026, the individual contribution limit is $4,400, and families can contribute up to $8,750. If you are 55 years old and have not yet started using Medicare, you can contribute an additional $1,000.

Finally, what expenses can be paid with HSA funds?

Undoubtedly, families can use HSA to pay for a variety of medical services, including hospital visits, dental, ophthalmic, and more.

HSA can also cover other health expenses for the family, including but not limited to:

1. Everyday health items, such as sunglasses, contact lenses, sunscreen, etc.
2. Over-the-counter medications, such as cold medicine, pain relievers, allergy medications, etc.
3. Home medical devices, such as thermometers, scales, blood pressure monitors, wheelchairs, canes, etc.
4. Fertility-related supplies and contraceptive tools, including breast pumps and parenting education courses, etc.
5. Physical therapy, massage, acupuncture, etc.
6. Accommodation and meal expenses for out-of-town medical care.
7. Premiums for certain medical insurances, such as long-term care insurance, Medicare, etc.

2. How Powerful is HSA's Tax Saving Potential?

We can quantify the tax-saving advantages of an HSA account through a simple example.

Suppose there are three young American families, the Wang family, the Zhang family, and the Li family, all with a marginal tax rate of 25% (the total of federal tax, state tax, and local tax).

Assuming they all have $1,000 in medical expenses this year, their strategies and financial results are as follows.

Wang Family: They opened an HSA account, deposited $1,000, and invested in the S&P 500 index fund, achieving an annual return rate of 10%. These funds grow tax-free within the HSA account.

They chose to pay this $1,000 bill with after-tax income; the pre-tax cost of these funds is $1,333.

After 30 years, the $1,000 in the HSA account grows to $17,450. They withdraw $1,000 for reimbursement, leaving $16,450 in the HSA account.

Zhang Family: They opened an HSA account, deposited $1,000, and then used HSA funds to pay the bill. They then invested the after-tax $1,000 in a regular taxable account, subject to dividend taxes each year.

After 30 years, after capital gains taxes, their actual annual return rate is about 9%, with accumulated wealth of $13,260.

The Zhang family's wealth is $3,190 less than the Wang family, equivalent to 3.19 times the $1,000 deposited in the HSA.
Li Family: Did not open an HSA account and paid the bill directly with the after-tax $1,000. Compared to the Wang family, their excess pre-tax $1,000 remains $750 after taxes and is invested in the S&P 500 index fund in a taxable account.

After 30 years, the Li family's wealth accumulation is $9,950, which is $6,500 less than the Wang family, about 6.5 times the $1,000 deposited in the HSA!

In other words, if the Wang family deposits $8,750 in the HSA this year, just this one item will result in them having $56,880 more in assets than the Li family after 30 years.

Even if the HSA contribution limit is not raised, the Wang family's wealth will still be nearly $800,000 higher than the Li family's over 30 years!

If these families had higher marginal tax rates, the wealth gap would be even more significant.

Over the past several years, my family has consistently adopted the Wang family's strategy, accumulating quite a substantial amount of wealth in the HSA account.

Now that you understand the tax-saving ability of HSA, please consider opening your HSA account.

#Finance #Tax #HSA #HealthSavingsAccount

Global Oil Reserves and Production Rankings

Crude oil has been dubbed "black gold" and is one of today's most critical natural resources.

It is estimated that by 2025, the global daily crude oil consumption will reach about 100 million barrels. If calculated at a price of $60 per barrel, people around the world will spend $2 trillion annually on crude oil, a figure equivalent to 2% of the global GDP.

In comparison, the gold mined globally each year is about 3,300 tons, valued at around $400 billion.

Therefore, the annual extraction value of crude oil is five times that of gold.

The following are the countries with the highest crude oil reserves in the world and their daily crude oil production:

Country Reserves (barrels) Daily Production (barrels)
Venezuela 304 billion 1 million
Saudi Arabia 267 billion 10.8 million
Iran 209 billion 4.1 million
Iraq 201 billion 4.5 million
Canada 170 billion 5.5 million
UAE 113 billion 3.2 million
Kuwait 102 billion 2.6 million
Russia 80 billion 10.75 million
United States 74 billion 13.4 million
Libya 50 billion 140 thousand

It can be seen that the countries with the highest crude oil production are the United States, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Canada.

In addition, the global crude oil reserves remain very large. Taking Venezuela, which ranks first, as an example, based on the current production, its crude oil reserves can be extracted for up to 832 years!

How will the detention of the President of Venezuela by the United States affect global oil prices?

Despite having the largest oil reserves in the world, Venezuela's daily oil production is only about one million barrels, accounting for 1% of global total production.

Especially since December 2025, due to international blockades and economic sanctions, the country's oil production has nearly halved, currently accounting for about 0.5% of the global total.

Once upon a time, with its rich oil resources, Venezuela was one of the wealthiest countries in Latin America.

If the new government can swiftly stabilize the domestic situation and implement policy changes to seek the lifting of international sanctions, Venezuela's oil production is bound to rise significantly. This change may lead to a reduction in international oil prices.

Let us wait and see.

"""
Has the President of Venezuela been arrested by the United States, and will this affect international oil prices?

Despite having the largest crude oil reserves in the world, Venezuela's daily crude oil production is only about one million barrels, accounting for around 1% of the global total.

Especially after December 2025, due to international sanctions and blockades, the country's crude oil production has nearly halved and now accounts for about 0.5% of the global total.

Once, relying on its unique oil resources, Venezuela was one of the wealthiest countries in Latin America.

If the new government can quickly stabilize the domestic situation and implement policies to gain the international community's lifting of sanctions, Venezuela's oil production will surely increase significantly, which may lead to a decrease in international crude oil prices.

Let us pay attention to this development.
"""

"""
Has the President of Venezuela been arrested by the United States, and will it affect international oil prices?

Despite having the largest crude oil reserves in the world, Venezuela's daily oil production is only one million barrels, which accounts for about 1% of global production.

Especially after December 2025, due to international sanctions and blockades, the country's oil production has nearly halved, now accounting for only about 0.5% of the global total.

Once upon a time, with its unique oil resources, Venezuela was one of the wealthiest countries in Latin America.

If the new government can quickly stabilize the domestic situation and seek to lift sanctions through policy adjustments, Venezuela's oil production is bound to increase significantly, which could lead to a decline in international oil prices.

Let's wait and see.
"""

BYD's sales surpass Tesla

According to the latest data, Tesla's electric vehicle sales saw a 16% decline in the fourth quarter.

Looking back to 2025, Tesla's total electric vehicle sales for the year were 1.64 million units, a decrease of 8.6% compared to 2024.

Meanwhile, China's BYD electric vehicle sales grew by 28%, reaching 2.26 million units, exceeding Tesla's sales by 38%.

As a result, BYD has become the world's largest electric vehicle manufacturer.

"""
BYD surpasses Tesla in sales

According to the latest statistics, Tesla's electric vehicle sales fell by 16% in the fourth quarter.

Looking back at 2025, Tesla's total electric vehicle sales were 1.64 million units, a decrease of 8.6% compared to 2024.

Meanwhile, BYD's electric vehicle sales in China grew by 28%, reaching 2.26 million units, surpassing Tesla's sales by 38%.

As a result, BYD has become the world's largest electric vehicle manufacturer.
"""

"""
Global Core Assets Historical Return Analysis

Successful investors often find that 85% of their success comes from precise asset allocation, 10% from the wisdom of selecting investment targets, and 5% relies on the blessings of fate.
—William Sharpe

It is evident that asset allocation plays a crucial role in the return of investment portfolios. Smart investors should construct suitable asset combinations based on their risk tolerance.

Below is the historical return data for global core assets.

As of the end of 2025, the annualized average returns over the past 5 years are as follows:

- S&P 500 Index: 14.4%
- Nasdaq 100 Index: 15.2%
- Information Technology Index (VGT): 17.1%
- U.S. Real Estate: 6%
- Gold: 17.3%
- CSI 300 Index: 0.1%
- Short-term U.S. Treasury Bonds: 3.2%

Over the past 10 years, the annualized average returns for these assets are:

- S&P 500 Index: 14.8%
- Nasdaq 100 Index: 19.5%
- Information Technology Index (VGT): 22.6%
- U.S. Real Estate: 7%
- Gold: 14.6%
- CSI 300 Index: 4.6%
- Short-term U.S. Treasury Bonds: 1.9%

The average annualized returns over the past 15 years are as follows:

- S&P 500 Index: 14.0%
- Nasdaq 100 Index: 18.7%
- Information Technology Index (VGT): 19.4%
- U.S. Real Estate: 6%
- Gold: 7.3%
- CSI 300 Index: 4.9%

Over the past 20 years, their annualized average returns are:

- S&P 500 Index: 14.7%
- Nasdaq 100 Index: 15.5%
- Information Technology Index (VGT): 15.7%
- U.S. Real Estate: 6%
- Gold: 10.7%
- CSI 300 Index: 10.2%

Over the past 30 years, the average annualized returns for these assets are:

- S&P 500 Index: 10.4%
- Nasdaq 100 Index: 14.8%
- U.S. Real Estate: 4.6%
- Gold: 9.1%

If you would like to gain deeper insights into my investment experiences and perspectives, feel free to visit Amazon or Google Play Books to purchase my Chinese book "Wealth Shortcut" or the English version "The Shortcut to Wealth: Your Simple Roadmap to Financial Independence."
"""

The Historical Investment Returns of Global Core Assets

As William Sharpe said, the key to successful investing relies 85% on proper asset allocation, 10% on the precise selection of investment objectives, and the remaining 5% on the favor of fate.

Undoubtedly, asset allocation significantly affects the returns of our investment portfolios. Therefore, wise investors should construct a portfolio that matches their risk tolerance.

Below is the historical yield data of the world’s most core assets.

As of the end of 2025, the annualized average returns over the past five years are as follows:

- S&P 500 Index: 14.4%
- Nasdaq 100 Index: 15.2%
- Information Technology Index (VGT): 17.1%
- U.S. Real Estate: 6%
- Gold: 17.3%
- CSI 300 Index: 0.1%
- Short-term U.S. Treasury Bonds: 3.2%

Over the past ten years, their annualized average returns are:

- S&P 500 Index: 14.8%
- Nasdaq 100 Index: 19.5%
- Information Technology Index (VGT): 22.6%
- U.S. Real Estate: 7%
- Gold: 14.6%
- CSI 300 Index: 4.6%
- Short-term U.S. Treasury Bonds: 1.9%

The annualized average returns over the past fifteen years are as follows:

- S&P 500 Index: 14.0%
- Nasdaq 100 Index: 18.7%
- Information Technology Index (VGT): 19.4%
- U.S. Real Estate: 6%
- Gold: 7.3%
- CSI 300 Index: 4.9%

In the past twenty years, the annualized average returns of these assets have been:

- S&P 500 Index: 14.7%
- Nasdaq 100 Index: 15.5%
- Information Technology Index (VGT): 15.7%
- U.S. Real Estate: 6%
- Gold: 10.7%
- CSI 300 Index: 10.2%

If you would like to learn more about my investment experience and insights, please visit Amazon or Google Play Books to purchase my Chinese financial book '财富捷径' or the English version 'The Shortcut to Wealth: Your Simple Roadmap to Financial Independence.'