A7
WAL Holder
Occasional Trader
4.9 Years
【数字资产交易专家 | 5年区块链市场实战经验】精通跨周期加密资产配置，擅长结合技术分析与链上数据构建交易系统（fs 8 82 48）
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Billions of dollars poured in, did the crypto market rebound overnight?
The overnight CPI data was neutral to slightly positive. Stock index futures rose sharply in the short term. The December CPI annual rate and month-over-month rate were basically in line with expectations at 2.7% and 0.3% respectively. Core CPI annual and month-over-month rates both came in below expectations by 0.1%, at 2.6% and 0.2% respectively.
Although the inflation data did not exceed expectations, it is still decent. Both the annual rate of CPI and core CPI remained unchanged compared to the previous value. The month-over-month core inflation rate was lower than expected, indicating a clear downward trend in inflation. The November inflation was not solely due to the government shutdown. If inflation continues to decline, it will be beneficial for rate cuts in 2026. Of course, even though the December inflation data was favorable, it won't change the Federal Reserve's decision not to cut rates in January. Many people don't understand why the index rose despite the data matching expectations. In previous articles, Lin Chao explained that the crypto market is inherently speculative on expectations. Currently in a bear market phase, as long as the data isn't worse than expected, the market defaults to accepting the result. Any risk-off sentiment had already been priced in earlier, so the news release is essentially a case of bad news being out. Moreover, inflation data being better than expected means the market has already created space for significant rate cuts ahead, naturally making it a positive signal.
Although the inflation data did not exceed expectations, it is still decent. Both the annual rate of CPI and core CPI remained unchanged compared to the previous value. The month-over-month core inflation rate was lower than expected, indicating a clear downward trend in inflation. The November inflation was not solely due to the government shutdown. If inflation continues to decline, it will be beneficial for rate cuts in 2026. Of course, even though the December inflation data was favorable, it won't change the Federal Reserve's decision not to cut rates in January. Many people don't understand why the index rose despite the data matching expectations. In previous articles, Lin Chao explained that the crypto market is inherently speculative on expectations. Currently in a bear market phase, as long as the data isn't worse than expected, the market defaults to accepting the result. Any risk-off sentiment had already been priced in earlier, so the news release is essentially a case of bad news being out. Moreover, inflation data being better than expected means the market has already created space for significant rate cuts ahead, naturally making it a positive signal.
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BTC ETH Market Analysis Jan 13
The market continues to oscillate erratically, jumping up and down with frequent probing. There's no stable trading pattern, making it truly a lackluster market—tasteless to consume, yet hard to abandon. Long-term investors, who don't have time to monitor the charts, can ignore it; short-term traders can safely disregard it—don't watch, don't touch, don't trade!
After five consecutive green candles, Bitcoin experienced five consecutive red candles, closing with a small bullish candle with a doji yesterday. Short-term trading still lacks a clear direction, with repeated washouts and frequent probing. Currently, the Bollinger Bands are all opening upward and rising, but the MACD bullish momentum is insufficient, and volume remains low. Be cautious of insufficient momentum, which could lead to a sudden reversal after a rally. On the 4-hour chart, the price is pushing against the upper band, which is opening upward, but the MACD momentum hasn't shown significant expansion—again indicating weak strength. Overbought conditions call for correction, with price trading in a range and frequent probing, making short-term trading even more difficult. Avoid chasing gains or panic selling at all costs!
After five consecutive green candles, Bitcoin experienced five consecutive red candles, closing with a small bullish candle with a doji yesterday. Short-term trading still lacks a clear direction, with repeated washouts and frequent probing. Currently, the Bollinger Bands are all opening upward and rising, but the MACD bullish momentum is insufficient, and volume remains low. Be cautious of insufficient momentum, which could lead to a sudden reversal after a rally. On the 4-hour chart, the price is pushing against the upper band, which is opening upward, but the MACD momentum hasn't shown significant expansion—again indicating weak strength. Overbought conditions call for correction, with price trading in a range and frequent probing, making short-term trading even more difficult. Avoid chasing gains or panic selling at all costs!
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交易心得
做多会让你忍不住买，做空会让你忍不住空，而持仓会让你忍不住加，任何方向都不是问题，问题是频率。”市场里诱惑太多，多空都有“看起来挺合理”的地方，你今天想抄个底，明天想捅个空，下周又觉得原来的仓位应该加一点……久而久之，你已经不是在等待机会了，而是在回应刺激。真正的核心不是做多还是做空，也不是你判断对不对，而是—— 能不能扛得住那些看似有戏、其实只是噪音的诱惑。机会是少数，冲动是多数。这让我想到利弗莫尔的一个经典故事。他破产后，几乎什么都不碰，什么都不做，等了很久——等到市场真正出现结构性的大机会，他才重仓买进伯利恒钢铁之战（感兴趣的朋友可以搜一下利弗莫尔的-伯利恒钢铁之战，非常牛逼的翻身一战）。别人以为他重生的秘诀是“那次判断对了”，但他自己说：“我能赢，是因为我等得住。”他不是等到想交易了就上，而是等到必须交易才上。这就是高手的下法：>>不是天天动，而是关键时刻才动。>>不是频繁找机会，而是让机会来找自己。>>不是越多越好，而是越少越准。无论多空还是持仓，人的天性都会把动作频率慢慢推高，让你越做越杂、越做越散，最后好机会来了你却已经失了锋芒。所以最精华的逻辑其实只有一句：真正能赢的人，不是判断强，而是忍得住。出手少，但每一下都值钱
做多会让你忍不住买，做空会让你忍不住空，而持仓会让你忍不住加，任何方向都不是问题，问题是频率。”市场里诱惑太多，多空都有“看起来挺合理”的地方，你今天想抄个底，明天想捅个空，下周又觉得原来的仓位应该加一点……久而久之，你已经不是在等待机会了，而是在回应刺激。真正的核心不是做多还是做空，也不是你判断对不对，而是—— 能不能扛得住那些看似有戏、其实只是噪音的诱惑。机会是少数，冲动是多数。这让我想到利弗莫尔的一个经典故事。他破产后，几乎什么都不碰，什么都不做，等了很久——等到市场真正出现结构性的大机会，他才重仓买进伯利恒钢铁之战（感兴趣的朋友可以搜一下利弗莫尔的-伯利恒钢铁之战，非常牛逼的翻身一战）。别人以为他重生的秘诀是“那次判断对了”，但他自己说：“我能赢，是因为我等得住。”他不是等到想交易了就上，而是等到必须交易才上。这就是高手的下法：>>不是天天动，而是关键时刻才动。>>不是频繁找机会，而是让机会来找自己。>>不是越多越好，而是越少越准。无论多空还是持仓，人的天性都会把动作频率慢慢推高，让你越做越杂、越做越散，最后好机会来了你却已经失了锋芒。所以最精华的逻辑其实只有一句：真正能赢的人，不是判断强，而是忍得住。出手少，但每一下都值钱
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1.12 BTC Reclaims 92,000, What’s Next for the Market?
Trading Insights
Going long makes you eager to buy, going short makes you eager to sell short, and holding a position makes you eager to add more. Neither direction is the problem; the issue is frequency. The market is full of temptations—both long and short positions can seem reasonable. Today you want to catch a bottom, tomorrow you want to short a peak, and next week you think you should add to your existing position... Over time, you're no longer waiting for opportunities—you're reacting to stimuli. The real core isn't whether you're long or short, nor whether your judgment is correct, but rather—can you resist the temptation of seemingly promising but actually just noise? Opportunities are rare; impulses are plentiful. This reminds me of a classic story about Jesse Livermore. After going bankrupt, he touched nothing, did nothing, waited for a long time—until a structural, major opportunity finally emerged, at which point he went all in on the Bethlehem Steel trade (those interested can search 'Jesse Livermore - Bethlehem Steel trade'—it's an incredibly powerful comeback story). Others thought his secret to rebirth was 'getting that one call right,' but he said himself: 'I won because I could wait.' He didn't trade just because he felt like it—he traded only when it was absolutely necessary. This is how true experts play: >> Not trading every day, but only acting at critical moments. >> Not constantly hunting for opportunities, but letting opportunities come to you. >> Not more is better, but less is more accurate. Whether long, short, or holding, human nature gradually increases your trading frequency, making you more scattered and chaotic, until the real opportunity arrives—but by then, you've lost your edge. So the essence comes down to one sentence: The people who truly win aren't those with the strongest judgment, but those who can hold back. Fewer trades, but each one counts.
Going long makes you eager to buy, going short makes you eager to sell short, and holding a position makes you eager to add more. Neither direction is the problem; the issue is frequency. The market is full of temptations—both long and short positions can seem reasonable. Today you want to catch a bottom, tomorrow you want to short a peak, and next week you think you should add to your existing position... Over time, you're no longer waiting for opportunities—you're reacting to stimuli. The real core isn't whether you're long or short, nor whether your judgment is correct, but rather—can you resist the temptation of seemingly promising but actually just noise? Opportunities are rare; impulses are plentiful. This reminds me of a classic story about Jesse Livermore. After going bankrupt, he touched nothing, did nothing, waited for a long time—until a structural, major opportunity finally emerged, at which point he went all in on the Bethlehem Steel trade (those interested can search 'Jesse Livermore - Bethlehem Steel trade'—it's an incredibly powerful comeback story). Others thought his secret to rebirth was 'getting that one call right,' but he said himself: 'I won because I could wait.' He didn't trade just because he felt like it—he traded only when it was absolutely necessary. This is how true experts play: >> Not trading every day, but only acting at critical moments. >> Not constantly hunting for opportunities, but letting opportunities come to you. >> Not more is better, but less is more accurate. Whether long, short, or holding, human nature gradually increases your trading frequency, making you more scattered and chaotic, until the real opportunity arrives—but by then, you've lost your edge. So the essence comes down to one sentence: The people who truly win aren't those with the strongest judgment, but those who can hold back. Fewer trades, but each one counts.
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BTC: Dual Perspective from Four Timeframes and News Flow, Helping You Time the Crypto Cycle
Multi-timeframe Technical Analysis
Daily Chart (Long-term Trend - High-level Consolidation Turning Weak) The price is now pressured below the MA20 (around 89,500), and several short-term moving averages are beginning to turn downward, showing early signs of a bearish alignment. This indicates that the medium- and long-term trend has shifted from an uptrend to a high-level consolidation, with a weakening tendency. The strong resistance above is near MA20 and the previous 94k area, while the key support lies at the old platform of 86,000–87,000. Indicators show that MACD and RSI are both lackluster, with evident lack of momentum on the daily timeframe.
4-Hour Chart (Medium-term Trend - Consolidation Downward) This timeframe reveals a clearer picture: after peaking at 94,789 on January 5th, the price has been in a steady decline, forming a descending channel. Currently, the price is struggling near the lower boundary of the channel. MA20 has crossed below MA60, a classic bearish alignment. MACD has been weakening since its death cross below the zero line, and although the red bars (bearish momentum) have shortened slightly, they are far from turning strong. Key resistance lies at 91,500–92,000 (channel upper boundary and previous minor support), with support at 89,000 (recent low) and 86,000.
Daily Chart (Long-term Trend - High-level Consolidation Turning Weak) The price is now pressured below the MA20 (around 89,500), and several short-term moving averages are beginning to turn downward, showing early signs of a bearish alignment. This indicates that the medium- and long-term trend has shifted from an uptrend to a high-level consolidation, with a weakening tendency. The strong resistance above is near MA20 and the previous 94k area, while the key support lies at the old platform of 86,000–87,000. Indicators show that MACD and RSI are both lackluster, with evident lack of momentum on the daily timeframe.
4-Hour Chart (Medium-term Trend - Consolidation Downward) This timeframe reveals a clearer picture: after peaking at 94,789 on January 5th, the price has been in a steady decline, forming a descending channel. Currently, the price is struggling near the lower boundary of the channel. MA20 has crossed below MA60, a classic bearish alignment. MACD has been weakening since its death cross below the zero line, and although the red bars (bearish momentum) have shortened slightly, they are far from turning strong. Key resistance lies at 91,500–92,000 (channel upper boundary and previous minor support), with support at 89,000 (recent low) and 86,000.
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The weekly chart of the big pancake is within a rectangular consolidation range, yet it has not effectively broken through the upper boundary of 94500. The weekly volume is relatively low, and the long upper and lower shadows indicate a divergence between bulls and bears. The upper shadow touched the upper boundary of 94500 before retreating, while the lower shadow found support near the trend line. On the daily chart, yesterday's candlestick formed a long lower shadow, and the middle band of the Bollinger Bands provided support. If today's candle closes with a bullish reversal, it could form a morning star pattern. Current key price levels: 89500/88000; resistance levels: 93500/94800. MACD and RSI show potential for dullness correction. For short-term trading, focus on the 4-hour timeframe and seize opportunities as they arise.
ETH
Analysis
Two major events occurred on Friday. The first was the release of non-farm payroll data. Currently, both good and bad unemployment data are considered positive. An increase in unemployment may raise expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, while a decrease suggests the U.S. economy remains optimistic. However, it is highly likely that no rate adjustment will occur in January. Any adjustments after March will largely depend on the博弈 between Trump and the Federal Reserve.
The second, and more important, event is the upcoming Supreme Court ruling on Trump's tariffs. If the court rules that Trump's tariffs are illegal, it would be beneficial for easing U.S. inflation and could support the Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates. However, this would be unfavorable for Trump and his administration, potentially damaging his approval ratings. Consider going long on a pullback to the 3056-3025 range, with a potential target at 3150-3200.
ETH
Analysis
Two major events occurred on Friday. The first was the release of non-farm payroll data. Currently, both good and bad unemployment data are considered positive. An increase in unemployment may raise expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, while a decrease suggests the U.S. economy remains optimistic. However, it is highly likely that no rate adjustment will occur in January. Any adjustments after March will largely depend on the博弈 between Trump and the Federal Reserve.
The second, and more important, event is the upcoming Supreme Court ruling on Trump's tariffs. If the court rules that Trump's tariffs are illegal, it would be beneficial for easing U.S. inflation and could support the Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates. However, this would be unfavorable for Trump and his administration, potentially damaging his approval ratings. Consider going long on a pullback to the 3056-3025 range, with a potential target at 3150-3200.
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【Today's Knowledge】Pattern — Hikkake Pattern
1、Professional Definition
🔹（1）Hikkake pattern is a candlestick pattern composed of 5 or 6 candles, used to identify short-term trends, either bullish or bearish;
🔹（2）Main characteristics:
a. It is used to identify short-term trends
b. The Hikake pattern can show both uptrends and downtrends simultaneously
c. This indicates high market volatility
d. At the end of the Hikkake candlestick pattern, a market breakout typically occurs
e. The market breakout can go in two directions (bullish/bearish)
2、How to Identify the Hikkake Candlestick Pattern?
🔹（1）The key to identifying the candlestick pattern lies in observing whether an inside bar appears on the chart, also known as the engulfing candlestick pattern.
🔹（2）Whenever an inside bar pattern appears on the chart, the possibility of a "hikkake" pattern always exists.
🔹（3）Characteristics of the inside bar pattern:
a. Composed of two candlesticks
b. The first candlestick is a bullish candle
c. The second candlestick is a small-bodied bearish candle
d. The first bullish candle engulfs the second bearish candle
e. The appearance of the inside bar pattern suggests that a Hikkake candlestick pattern may occur
f. Currently, we cannot determine the nature of this pattern. This pattern may lead to either positive or negative movements, and the short-term trend could go in any direction. After the inside bar pattern appears, the probability of an uptrend and a downtrend is equal.
1、Professional Definition
🔹（1）Hikkake pattern is a candlestick pattern composed of 5 or 6 candles, used to identify short-term trends, either bullish or bearish;
🔹（2）Main characteristics:
a. It is used to identify short-term trends
b. The Hikake pattern can show both uptrends and downtrends simultaneously
c. This indicates high market volatility
d. At the end of the Hikkake candlestick pattern, a market breakout typically occurs
e. The market breakout can go in two directions (bullish/bearish)
2、How to Identify the Hikkake Candlestick Pattern?
🔹（1）The key to identifying the candlestick pattern lies in observing whether an inside bar appears on the chart, also known as the engulfing candlestick pattern.
🔹（2）Whenever an inside bar pattern appears on the chart, the possibility of a "hikkake" pattern always exists.
🔹（3）Characteristics of the inside bar pattern:
a. Composed of two candlesticks
b. The first candlestick is a bullish candle
c. The second candlestick is a small-bodied bearish candle
d. The first bullish candle engulfs the second bearish candle
e. The appearance of the inside bar pattern suggests that a Hikkake candlestick pattern may occur
f. Currently, we cannot determine the nature of this pattern. This pattern may lead to either positive or negative movements, and the short-term trend could go in any direction. After the inside bar pattern appears, the probability of an uptrend and a downtrend is equal.
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【Today's Knowledge】Pattern — Trading Strategy for Hammer Candles
🔹1. Method of Using Hammer Candlestick Patterns in Trading Strategy
The high or low point of a hammer candlestick is an important price level. When large players manipulate the market and look for stop-loss points, they leave traces.
These traces indicate that they leave important key price levels, which can serve as strong support and resistance levels.
🔹2. Higher Timeframe Analysis
(1) One way to trade these levels is by using a higher timeframe. Higher timeframe analysis can improve the win rate of trading.
(2) On a higher timeframe (e.g., 4-hour chart), draw support and resistance reversal horizontal lines at the high or low point of the long tail of the hammer candlestick.
Within lower timeframes, look for engulfing or hammer patterns at these key price levels and trade in the direction of the prevailing trend.
🔹3. Practical Application
(1) We need to identify suitable hammer candlestick patterns in historical data and draw a horizontal line at the tip of the tail. This line will serve as a key price level. These levels can be used for trend trading.
(2) Hammer candlestick patterns reveal the trading footprints of market makers. When used properly, they can help easily profit from the market.
After backtesting this pattern at least 100 times, we can easily pick out the best patterns from the chart.
The opening and closing prices of the pattern are crucial. Professional traders can analyze all timeframes based solely on the opening and closing prices.
🔹1. Method of Using Hammer Candlestick Patterns in Trading Strategy
The high or low point of a hammer candlestick is an important price level. When large players manipulate the market and look for stop-loss points, they leave traces.
These traces indicate that they leave important key price levels, which can serve as strong support and resistance levels.
🔹2. Higher Timeframe Analysis
(1) One way to trade these levels is by using a higher timeframe. Higher timeframe analysis can improve the win rate of trading.
(2) On a higher timeframe (e.g., 4-hour chart), draw support and resistance reversal horizontal lines at the high or low point of the long tail of the hammer candlestick.
Within lower timeframes, look for engulfing or hammer patterns at these key price levels and trade in the direction of the prevailing trend.
🔹3. Practical Application
(1) We need to identify suitable hammer candlestick patterns in historical data and draw a horizontal line at the tip of the tail. This line will serve as a key price level. These levels can be used for trend trading.
(2) Hammer candlestick patterns reveal the trading footprints of market makers. When used properly, they can help easily profit from the market.
After backtesting this pattern at least 100 times, we can easily pick out the best patterns from the chart.
The opening and closing prices of the pattern are crucial. Professional traders can analyze all timeframes based solely on the opening and closing prices.
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Amidst the Binance listing frenzy, let's examine the symbiotic ecosystem strategy of Walrus and Sui. 👀
Everyone knows that market attention is a scarce resource.
Recently, Binance exchange has listed several $Sui ecosystem projects.
As one of the fundamental components of the Sui ecosystem, Walrus is working in harmony with the entire ecosystem and sharing in its prosperity.
1️⃣ Binance's Choice: A Barometer of Sui's Ecosystem Vitality
As a top global exchange, Binance's decision to list Sui was far from arbitrary. Its continuous investment in Sui ecosystem projects sends a strong market signal, demonstrating that the Sui public chain's technological strength, user base, and future development potential have gained high recognition.
2️⃣ The symbiotic logic of the ecosystem: a value network where everyone prospers.
Recently, Binance exchange has listed several $Sui ecosystem projects.
As one of the fundamental components of the Sui ecosystem, Walrus is working in harmony with the entire ecosystem and sharing in its prosperity.
1️⃣ Binance's Choice: A Barometer of Sui's Ecosystem Vitality
As a top global exchange, Binance's decision to list Sui was far from arbitrary. Its continuous investment in Sui ecosystem projects sends a strong market signal, demonstrating that the Sui public chain's technological strength, user base, and future development potential have gained high recognition.
2️⃣ The symbiotic logic of the ecosystem: a value network where everyone prospers.
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#walrus $WAL 🦭 Let's briefly talk about the core highlights of Walrus:
1️⃣ Storage optimization for large data entities
Traditional blockchain or distributed storage solutions (such as Filecoin, Arweave) face high costs and low efficiency when handling large files and massive datasets.
Walrus offers a solution tailored for "blobs," particularly suitable for large binary data such as videos, images, and AI datasets.
Combined with the "RedStuff" error correction mechanism, it reduces redundant replication overhead while ensuring high data availability and security.
2️⃣ Strong funding background
Storage services represent a significant segment within cloud services, and Walrus has impressive funding credentials.
It previously raised up to $140 million, led by Standard Crypto, with participants including a16z crypto, Electric Capital, and others.
3️⃣ Tokenomics
The total token supply is set at 5 billion $WAL , with clear use cases in storage payments, staking/delegation, and security governance.
A large portion is reserved for the community (43% community reserve), resulting in minimal short-term unlock pressure and ample room for strong market performance.
🧭 In summary
Walrus is a promising infrastructure project, focusing specifically on large binary data blobs, distinguishing itself from traditional storage protocols.
It holds great potential in scenarios involving big data, AI, and 3D gaming, and we hope $WAL performs well in the future.
1️⃣ Storage optimization for large data entities
Traditional blockchain or distributed storage solutions (such as Filecoin, Arweave) face high costs and low efficiency when handling large files and massive datasets.
Walrus offers a solution tailored for "blobs," particularly suitable for large binary data such as videos, images, and AI datasets.
Combined with the "RedStuff" error correction mechanism, it reduces redundant replication overhead while ensuring high data availability and security.
2️⃣ Strong funding background
Storage services represent a significant segment within cloud services, and Walrus has impressive funding credentials.
It previously raised up to $140 million, led by Standard Crypto, with participants including a16z crypto, Electric Capital, and others.
3️⃣ Tokenomics
The total token supply is set at 5 billion $WAL , with clear use cases in storage payments, staking/delegation, and security governance.
A large portion is reserved for the community (43% community reserve), resulting in minimal short-term unlock pressure and ample room for strong market performance.
🧭 In summary
Walrus is a promising infrastructure project, focusing specifically on large binary data blobs, distinguishing itself from traditional storage protocols.
It holds great potential in scenarios involving big data, AI, and 3D gaming, and we hope $WAL performs well in the future.
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Pullbacks are for a better subsequent rise, so this round of correction last night is absolutely nothing to worry about. Don't panic at every little change. This minor adjustment is nothing at all when the real bullish trend arrives. If you easily change your direction at the slightest market fluctuation and end up in a panic, it only shows you truly don't know how to judge trends. A7 still says: approaching the Lunar New Year, my main direction remains bullish. Any short-term pullbacks will only be used for brief short positions as transitions. This is based on long-term technical analysis. Furthermore, from a news perspective, both geopolitical developments and the potential Fed rate cuts are fundamentally supportive of cryptocurrency prices. Therefore, combining technical and news factors, the outlook for the near term still points to continued upward movement. Bullish investors, don't panic. Continue holding your long positions from earlier lows, stay patient, and keep a steady mind!
As usual, let's dive deeper into the technical indicators. On the daily chart, the price has been consolidating at a high level recently before a short-term decline, forming a long bearish candle, indicating heavy selling pressure above. On the hourly chart, the price has gradually declined from above 93,000, now in a consolidation phase following a short-term rebound. The hourly MACD histogram remains negative, with both DIF and DEA diverging downward, clearly showing a short-term bearish trend. The daily MACD is also weakening, possibly entering a correction phase. The hourly RSI is around 46, not yet in oversold territory, but generally weak; the daily RSI has dropped below 50, indicating weakening momentum. On the hourly chart, EMA7, EMA30, and EMA120 are in bearish alignment, with the current price facing resistance from EMA7. On the daily chart, EMA7 has turned downward, potentially testing EMA30 support further. For intraday trading, treat 91,000 as support. As long as this level is not broken, continue to look for bullish opportunities upward.
As usual, let's dive deeper into the technical indicators. On the daily chart, the price has been consolidating at a high level recently before a short-term decline, forming a long bearish candle, indicating heavy selling pressure above. On the hourly chart, the price has gradually declined from above 93,000, now in a consolidation phase following a short-term rebound. The hourly MACD histogram remains negative, with both DIF and DEA diverging downward, clearly showing a short-term bearish trend. The daily MACD is also weakening, possibly entering a correction phase. The hourly RSI is around 46, not yet in oversold territory, but generally weak; the daily RSI has dropped below 50, indicating weakening momentum. On the hourly chart, EMA7, EMA30, and EMA120 are in bearish alignment, with the current price facing resistance from EMA7. On the daily chart, EMA7 has turned downward, potentially testing EMA30 support further. For intraday trading, treat 91,000 as support. As long as this level is not broken, continue to look for bullish opportunities upward.
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【Today's Knowledge】Shape——Pin Bar K-Line
🔹1. The Role of Pin Bar K-Line
（1）The pin bar is a type of candlestick pattern characterized by a long upper or lower shadow, representing price rejection at support or resistance levels during trading.
（2）In technical analysis, the pin bar is one of the most powerful and effective K-line patterns. It can signal reversals, but the pin bar also has many other uses in technical analysis, such as drawing resistance reversal lines.
🔹2. What is a Pin Bar K-Line?
（1）A pin bar K-line consists of a small body and long shadows. An upward extending long shadow indicates that the price is resisted at a certain resistance level. A downward extending long shadow confirms that the price is resisted at a certain support level. Additionally, there are shorter shadows below the bearish candle and above the bullish candle.
（2）To determine if a pin bar candlestick is valid, two conditions must be met:
a. The body of the pin bar K-line must be less than 20% of the total length of the K-line.
b. The tail or wick length of the candle must be greater than 80%.
🔹3. What is Price Rejection?
（1）Price reversals often indicate that the market will experience a false reversal, attempting to entice retail investors to trigger stop-loss orders.
（2）Large banks and institutional investors often exploit this false reversal to eliminate retail investors and prevent the emergence of new trends.
（3）Therefore, price reversals help us accurately grasp key reversal points.
🔹1. The Role of Pin Bar K-Line
（1）The pin bar is a type of candlestick pattern characterized by a long upper or lower shadow, representing price rejection at support or resistance levels during trading.
（2）In technical analysis, the pin bar is one of the most powerful and effective K-line patterns. It can signal reversals, but the pin bar also has many other uses in technical analysis, such as drawing resistance reversal lines.
🔹2. What is a Pin Bar K-Line?
（1）A pin bar K-line consists of a small body and long shadows. An upward extending long shadow indicates that the price is resisted at a certain resistance level. A downward extending long shadow confirms that the price is resisted at a certain support level. Additionally, there are shorter shadows below the bearish candle and above the bullish candle.
（2）To determine if a pin bar candlestick is valid, two conditions must be met:
a. The body of the pin bar K-line must be less than 20% of the total length of the K-line.
b. The tail or wick length of the candle must be greater than 80%.
🔹3. What is Price Rejection?
（1）Price reversals often indicate that the market will experience a false reversal, attempting to entice retail investors to trigger stop-loss orders.
（2）Large banks and institutional investors often exploit this false reversal to eliminate retail investors and prevent the emergence of new trends.
（3）Therefore, price reversals help us accurately grasp key reversal points.
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Binance Square Influencer Certification Explanation
What is Binance Square's influencer certification?
Binance Square provides influencer certification marks for verified individuals or brand accounts, displayed in the lower right corner of the avatar, helping users make more informed decisions about whom to follow and interact with. It is still very important to continuously conduct self-research (DYOR) and report suspicious content to ensure that the accounts followed are genuine creators willing to share valuable insights.
Label type:
Black check: Binance official account
Golden check: Key opinion leaders (KOL), media, institutions, or celebrities
Requirements for applying for influencer certification
General guidelines
Binance Square provides influencer certification marks for verified individuals or brand accounts, displayed in the lower right corner of the avatar, helping users make more informed decisions about whom to follow and interact with. It is still very important to continuously conduct self-research (DYOR) and report suspicious content to ensure that the accounts followed are genuine creators willing to share valuable insights.
Label type:
Black check: Binance official account
Golden check: Key opinion leaders (KOL), media, institutions, or celebrities
Requirements for applying for influencer certification
General guidelines
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Analysis of the Upward Trend in the Cryptocurrency Market and the Impact of International Situations on It
Yesterday, a military action broke out, causing a portion of people to be very anxious and restless. Especially for users holding positions in the market, whether in spot or contracts, there is a high sensitivity to all news. We cannot elaborate on military matters, but each of you needs to have your own judgment regarding its impact on the cryptocurrency space. Firstly, Venezuela is not a country that holds a large amount of cryptocurrency; even if such a country were to collapse, the impact on the cryptocurrency market wouldn't be significant. The market most likely to be affected would be its own specialty energy; there is no need to frighten oneself with panic. This upward trend is not something that a small country can influence.
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As the price of Bitcoin surges towards historical highs, market enthusiasm and risk indices soar in tandem. The latest sentiment monitoring data shows that the market sentiment indicator has reached a historical high of 78%, a signal akin to the sword of Damocles hanging overhead, suggesting that the market may face a critical turning point of a 'double top'. In the context of global financial competition, Sino-US negotiations have become the core variable influencing market direction. In the face of unpredictable external commentary, investors must maintain a clear awareness— as the price of Bitcoin continues to rise, the current risk-reward ratio of investments has significantly decreased, making the investment maxim 'greed in fear, caution in greed' increasingly important.
From a comprehensive analysis of technical and news aspects, although Bitcoin maintains an upward trend due to strong momentum, potential risks cannot be ignored. Technically, the continuous price increase has caused a significant deviation from the moving average system, with strong demand for a pullback correction in the short term; from a news perspective, policy changes, geopolitical events, and other factors could trigger market volatility. Therefore, scientific position management and strict risk control are effective means for investors to fend off risks. It is advisable to closely monitor price pullback signals and set reasonable stop-loss points to safeguard capital while seizing market opportunities.
After a day of turbulent adjustments, Bitcoin welcomed a new round of fluctuations in the early hours. The price attempted to break through the $105,000 mark but was unsuccessful due to overhead selling pressure, followed by a period of oscillation and retracement, dipping to a low of $103,500 in the morning, currently oscillating around that price level.
From an overall structural perspective, the Bitcoin market is in a critical phase of range compression. Affected by further reduced expectations of interest rate cuts, a pullback was observed in the morning session. The 4-hour candlestick chart shows a clear downward movement of the upper Bollinger Band, with strong resistance above; the middle and lower bands are gradually rising, with both bulls and bears fiercely contesting around the price center. The price has been operating long-term between the middle and upper Bollinger Bands, with bulls having a slight advantage in the short term, but the overall market remains in a state of stalemate. In the 1-hour candlestick chart, the oscillating market is more pronounced, with strong resilience shown in both support and resistance levels, with bulls and bears alternating in market dominance. Before the range converges, Bitcoin's price is expected to continue oscillating within the existing channel until a balance is broken.
From a comprehensive analysis of technical and news aspects, although Bitcoin maintains an upward trend due to strong momentum, potential risks cannot be ignored. Technically, the continuous price increase has caused a significant deviation from the moving average system, with strong demand for a pullback correction in the short term; from a news perspective, policy changes, geopolitical events, and other factors could trigger market volatility. Therefore, scientific position management and strict risk control are effective means for investors to fend off risks. It is advisable to closely monitor price pullback signals and set reasonable stop-loss points to safeguard capital while seizing market opportunities.
After a day of turbulent adjustments, Bitcoin welcomed a new round of fluctuations in the early hours. The price attempted to break through the $105,000 mark but was unsuccessful due to overhead selling pressure, followed by a period of oscillation and retracement, dipping to a low of $103,500 in the morning, currently oscillating around that price level.
From an overall structural perspective, the Bitcoin market is in a critical phase of range compression. Affected by further reduced expectations of interest rate cuts, a pullback was observed in the morning session. The 4-hour candlestick chart shows a clear downward movement of the upper Bollinger Band, with strong resistance above; the middle and lower bands are gradually rising, with both bulls and bears fiercely contesting around the price center. The price has been operating long-term between the middle and upper Bollinger Bands, with bulls having a slight advantage in the short term, but the overall market remains in a state of stalemate. In the 1-hour candlestick chart, the oscillating market is more pronounced, with strong resilience shown in both support and resistance levels, with bulls and bears alternating in market dominance. Before the range converges, Bitcoin's price is expected to continue oscillating within the existing channel until a balance is broken.
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May 6, 2025 Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) Market Analysis and Operational Strategies
1. Key Points and Technical Signals for Bitcoin (BTC)
1. Daily Level Analysis
◦ Support Verification: The current price has fallen below the daily EMA5 moving average of $94,500, but there is a double bottom support structure around $93,500; if stabilized, it may trigger a rebound.
◦ Resistance Pressure: Short-term resistance is around $95,500; a breakthrough needs to be accompanied by an increase in trading volume (hourly buying ≥ 5,000 BTC), otherwise, it may form a false breakout.
◦ Potential Risk: If $93,500 is lost, it may accelerate the pullback to $92,000 (daily MA20 support) or even $88,000 (weekly support).
1. Daily Level Analysis
◦ Support Verification: The current price has fallen below the daily EMA5 moving average of $94,500, but there is a double bottom support structure around $93,500; if stabilized, it may trigger a rebound.
◦ Resistance Pressure: Short-term resistance is around $95,500; a breakthrough needs to be accompanied by an increase in trading volume (hourly buying ≥ 5,000 BTC), otherwise, it may form a false breakout.
◦ Potential Risk: If $93,500 is lost, it may accelerate the pullback to $92,000 (daily MA20 support) or even $88,000 (weekly support).
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Bitcoin Market Analysis and Trading Strategy on April 14, 2025
Bitcoin Market Analysis and Trading Strategy on April 14, 2025
One, Weekly Level Key Pattern Verification
Currently, Bitcoin has formed a 'pin bar new low followed by a rebound' doji pattern for 5 consecutive weeks on the weekly chart, similar to the bottom oscillation after the '519 crash' in 2021 (which opened a bull market after 2 months). From on-chain data, the $78,000-$80,000 range is a concentrated accumulation area for institutions; if the price can hold this support, it may replicate historical trends in the mid-term and form a reversal structure.
Two, Daily Level Bull-Bear Game Focus
1. Technical Pattern Analysis
• Trendline Breakout Confirmation: The daily line has broken the descending trendline near $86,100, and the MACD double lines are close to the zero line; if a golden cross forms and the histogram turns red, it will confirm the return of bulls.
One, Weekly Level Key Pattern Verification
Currently, Bitcoin has formed a 'pin bar new low followed by a rebound' doji pattern for 5 consecutive weeks on the weekly chart, similar to the bottom oscillation after the '519 crash' in 2021 (which opened a bull market after 2 months). From on-chain data, the $78,000-$80,000 range is a concentrated accumulation area for institutions; if the price can hold this support, it may replicate historical trends in the mid-term and form a reversal structure.
Two, Daily Level Bull-Bear Game Focus
1. Technical Pattern Analysis
• Trendline Breakout Confirmation: The daily line has broken the descending trendline near $86,100, and the MACD double lines are close to the zero line; if a golden cross forms and the histogram turns red, it will confirm the return of bulls.
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April 10, 2025 Bitcoin Market Analysis and Trading Strategy
April 10, 2025 Bitcoin Market Analysis and Trading Strategy
I. Key Signal Analysis at Daily Level
1. Long and Short Game and Support Resistance Verification
Yesterday, Bitcoin on the daily chart strongly rebounded from a low of $74,600 to $83,600, closing at $82,650, showing short-term rebound momentum. The current price is contesting around MA7 ($82,000-$79,250). If it effectively breaks this support, it may pull back to $79,250 (weekly chip center + previous low conversion point); if it holds, it is expected to test MA30 ($84,500-$85,000), and breaking through may open up space above $85,000.
I. Key Signal Analysis at Daily Level
1. Long and Short Game and Support Resistance Verification
Yesterday, Bitcoin on the daily chart strongly rebounded from a low of $74,600 to $83,600, closing at $82,650, showing short-term rebound momentum. The current price is contesting around MA7 ($82,000-$79,250). If it effectively breaks this support, it may pull back to $79,250 (weekly chip center + previous low conversion point); if it holds, it is expected to test MA30 ($84,500-$85,000), and breaking through may open up space above $85,000.
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April 8, 2025 Bitcoin Market Analysis and Operational Strategies
One, market structure and technical signals.
1. Short-term price pattern verification of weak patterns.
Bitcoin briefly surged to $81,172 on the evening of April 7 before quickly falling back, dropping to a low of $77,300 in the early morning, and then rebounding to around $81,200, but failing to effectively break through resistance, forming a 'false breakout' trap. Although there was a three-consecutive-hour candle rebound, the rebound range was only $3,000-4,000, and the trading volume did not significantly increase, indicating that bullish momentum remains weak.
• Key indicator verification: The 4-hour MACD fast and slow lines continue to be below the zero axis, with a shrinking rebound in the histogram, and the RSI briefly rebounding to 50 before turning down again, all indicating that the rebound is merely a technical correction and the trend has not reversed.
1. Short-term price pattern verification of weak patterns.
Bitcoin briefly surged to $81,172 on the evening of April 7 before quickly falling back, dropping to a low of $77,300 in the early morning, and then rebounding to around $81,200, but failing to effectively break through resistance, forming a 'false breakout' trap. Although there was a three-consecutive-hour candle rebound, the rebound range was only $3,000-4,000, and the trading volume did not significantly increase, indicating that bullish momentum remains weak.
• Key indicator verification: The 4-hour MACD fast and slow lines continue to be below the zero axis, with a shrinking rebound in the histogram, and the RSI briefly rebounding to 50 before turning down again, all indicating that the rebound is merely a technical correction and the trend has not reversed.
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Affected by tariff policies, global stock markets have experienced the most severe decline since 2020, with the 'domino effect' in global financial markets visibly erupting. The cryptocurrency market has also not been spared; last night a 'yep' triggered a huge shock in global stock markets and a rapid rise in BTC, it was truly ridiculous and thrilling! The US stock market closed on Monday, with the stock indices experiencing significant fluctuations under the trade storm. The Dow initially closed down 0.9%, the S&P 500 index fell 0.2%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.1%. The daily volatility of the three major indices was 6.77%, 8.11%, and 9.68% respectively. Nvidia (NVDA.O) rose 3.5%, Apple (AAPL.O) fell 3.6%, and Tesla (TSLA.O) dropped 2%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 5.1%, and Alibaba (BABA.N) dropped 9%. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in May is 43%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 57%. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates until June is 20.4%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 49.7%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 29.9%.
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