Goldman’s 2026 Base Case: A Calm Macro… with an AI Shock Under the Surface

Goldman is leaning into a rare 2026 setup: solid U.S. growth, inflation cooling back toward 2%, and two more Fed cuts still on the table.

Growth: ~2.5% GDP — resilient demand, no recession panic

Inflation: drifting toward ~2% — disinflation continues

Labor: “stable” unemployment headline-wise — but the twist is AI-driven jobless growth, where output rises while labor quietly gets displaced

Goldman’s view on the Fed: cuts in June and September — not because everything is perfect, but because uncertainty is rising beneath the surface. The top-line macro reads “soft landing,” yet the structure of the economy is re-pricing fast.

Translation for markets:
Calm data can still coexist with volatility catalysts — especially when productivity and employment start diverging.

$BTC $ETH #2026Outlook #Macro #Fed #AI #SoftLanding

Disclaimer: Commentary only. Not financial advice.