šØ BREAKING: Polymarket is pricing a 76% chance that Trumpās tariffs are ruled illegal.
The Supreme Court decision is expected Friday.
If the Court strikes down the tariffs, two major consequences stand out:
1ļøā£ Refunds
Tariffs already collected could be refunded to importers, pulling cash out of circulation and further straining government finances.
2ļøā£ Budget Deficit Impact
These tariffs were expected to cut the U.S. deficit by nearly $3 trillion over the next decade. A negative ruling would wipe out that projected reduction.
Importantly, a loss in court does not permanently ban tariffs ā it only invalidates the current legal framework being used.
The President would still have alternative ways to impose tariffs, but they would be:
⢠Slower to implement
⢠More restrictive
⢠Less effective than the existing mechanism
This sets up short-term uncertainty across markets.
Trump has consistently claimed tariffs strengthen the economy and support equities. A ruling against them would challenge that narrative.
š Longer-term effects of tariff removal:
⢠Lower government revenue
⢠Reduced inflation pressure
⢠Higher odds of future rate cuts
#Tariffs #SupremeCourt #MacroRisk #MarketUncertainty #CryptoMarkets


