🚨 BREAKING: FED ADMITS KALSHI FORECASTS BEAT PROFESSIONAL ECONOMISTS 🧠📊

A new study from the U.S. Federal Reserve has publicly acknowledged that Kalshi’s real-time probability forecasting platform has outperformed:

✔ Fed Funds Futures

✔ Professional economist surveys

— in predicting Federal Funds Rate outcomes and inflation (CPI) on the day of every FOMC meeting since 2022.

Instead of a single point estimate, Kalshi’s forecast shows a full probability distribution, giving markets a richer, continuously updated view of expectations than traditional tools.

This admission marks a major milestone in how markets forecast and price macro outcomes.

⸻

🧠 Why This Matters to Markets

📊 1) Better Signals = Better Positioning

Kalshi’s probabilistic model provides:

✔ Distribution of outcomes

✔ Real-time shifts based on live trading

✔ More accurate signals than surveys

This empowers traders to interpret macro expectation changes before they show up in futures or policy.

⸻

📉 2) Markets Price Expectations — Not Opinions

Traditional economist forecasts are static and slow.

Kalshi moves with market beliefs, detecting shifts faster.

That means:

• Rate odds adjust quicker

• Volatility pricing is sharper

• Macro-dependent assets adjust faster

This is a paradigm shift in macro forecasting.

⸻

🔄 3) Traders Can Use This Info

Instead of reacting to Fed statements after the fact, traders can now monitor Kalshi probability changes to tailor:

• Interest rate trades

• Bond curve positioning

• FX strategies

• Inflation hedges

• Macro-sensitive equities & crypto

This creates a leading edge.

⸻

📣 The Fed now admits Kalshi’s probability forecasts beat economist surveys and Fed Funds futures. 🧠

Real-time macro signals for traders: welcome to the future. 🔥

#Kalshi #Fed #MacroForecast #FOMC #TradingInsights $XAU

XAUUSDT

Trajne ter. pog.

5,114.8

+0.04%