The U.S. political landscape in 2026 has finally brought clarity to the fate of the key figures behind the FTX collapse. President Donald Trump has officially excluded FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) from any possibility of a presidential pardon.
🚫 The President’s "Stop-List"
Despite a wave of clemency that touched the crypto industry (including the high-profile releases of Ross Ulbricht and CZ), there will be no exceptions for SBF. He joins a "black list" alongside figures like Sean "Diddy" Combs and Nicolas Maduro. It appears the sheer scale of the fraud and the reputational damage to the U.S. financial system were too significant for Trump to risk political capital on the former "golden boy."
📉 Odds of Freedom: 5%
Prediction markets (such as Polymarket) reacted instantly to the news, with the probability of SBF’s release before 2027 plummeting to a mere 5%. His legal team’s last hope rests on an appeal. While hearings took place in November, the final ruling has yet to be entered into the registry. If the appellate court denies the motion, the only remaining path is the U.S. Supreme Court—a long shot at best. For now, his 25-year sentence looks set in stone.
🔄 A Tale of Two Fates: Caroline Ellison’s Countdown
While SBF remains in a federal cell, other participants in the FTX drama are preparing for a fresh start:
• Caroline Ellison is scheduled to be released on January 21.
• She has already been transferred to a reentry management office in New York, the standard final step before returning to society.
The Bottom Line: We are witnessing the end of an era. Those who cooperated with the government are returning to their lives after just two years. Meanwhile, the man who maintained his innocence until the end remains isolated, with no hope of presidential mercy.
For the crypto market, this is a signal of closure. The institutional cleanup is finishing, and justice—while selective—has proven incredibly harsh toward the architect of the decade's largest financial collapse.
#FTX #SBF #CryptoNews #Trump #BinanceSquare