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Avalanche price slips below $9 on Wednesday, extending its correction over the past four days.
VanEck’s spot ETF VAVX recorded an inflow of $4.26 million on Tuesday, the highest single-day inflow since its launch.
Mixed signals from on-chain and derivatives continue to weigh on AVAX price recovery.
Avalanche (AVAX) price trades below $9 at the time of writing on Wednesday, printing its fourth consecutive daily loss. The drop comes despite VanEck’s spot Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) VAVX recording its highest single-day inflow on Tuesday since launch in January, highlighting a disconnect between institutional flows and short-term price action. Meanwhile, mixed signals from on-chain and derivatives metrics continue to weigh on AVAX’s price recovery
Institutional demand fails to support AVAX price
The SoSoValue chart below shows that VanEck's spot ETF, VAVX, recorded a $4.26 million inflow on Tuesday, marking its highest single-day inflow since its launch in January. Despite this institutional demand, AVAX price action failed to respond positively, underscoring persistent selling pressure and limited conviction among traders.
CryptoQuant summary data indicate early signs of bullishness, with large whale orders, cooling conditions and buy-side dominance across both spot and futures markets. All these factors support a potential price recovery for Avalanche.
On the derivatives side, Avalanche futures Open Interest (OI) falls to $397 million on Wednesday, having declined steadily since mid-January, and it is nearing the February 11 low of $378 million. This drop in OI reflects waning investor participation and projects a bearish outlook.
However, the funding rates for AVAX support a positive outlook. The metric turned positive on Monday and stands at 0.0052% on Wednesday. The positive rates suggest that longs are paying shorts, suggesting bullish sentiment toward AVAX.
This combination of on-chain and derivatives suggests indecision among investors and limits the chances of a sustained recovery.
Avalanche Price Forecast: AVAX could revisit the $7.55 low
Avalanche price found support around the daily support at $8.78 on Feburary 11 and recovered over 11% in the next three days. However, on Sunday, AVAX failed to sustain the recovery and has since declined nearly 5% through Tuesday. As of writing on Wednesday, AVAX is trading at $9.08.
If AVAX continues its correction, it could extend the decline toward the daily support at $8.78. A close below this level could extend losses toward the February 6 low at $7.55.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 37, below the neutral level of 50 and points downward, indicating bearish momentum gaining traction. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bullish crossover on Friday, which remains in place, suggesting that upside bias has not been invalidated yet.
If AVAX recovers, it could extend the advance to the key psychological level at $10.
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Rampant speculation on crypto derivatives platforms is fueling volatility and risking bitcoin’s image as a stable hedge, says BlackRock’s digital assets chief.
These days where you have a tiny little thing that shouldn't have any price impact really at all — and if it does, should be small — like, for example, October 10th, some tariff-related thing, and next thing you know, [bitcoin] is down 20%,” Mitchnick said. “That’s because you get cascading liquidations and auto-deleveraging.”
While bitcoin’s long-term value proposition as a “global, scarce, decentralized monetary asset” remains intact, Mitchnick warned that the asset’s short-term trading behavior is starting to look dangerously similar to “levered NASDAQ” — a perception that may deter conservative allocators from entering the space.
The facts are more on the side of how I characterized it,” he said, referring to bitcoin’s fundamental attributes. “But now the trading data, at least lately, looks very different, and the bar to adoption if it trades like levered NASDAQ is much, much, much higher.”
Mitchnick also pushed back on the idea that exchange-traded funds (ETFs) like IBIT are contributing to volatility, pointing instead to perpetual futures platforms as the source of instability.
There’s a misperception out there that it’s a bunch of hedge funds in ETFs that are creating volatility and selling; that’s not what we’re seeing,” he said. “On a week that was tumultuous, obviously, in the bitcoin market, we had 0.2% of the fund redeem. If there actually were hedge funds massively unwinding trades… you would have seen billions. We saw many billions liquidated on these levered platforms.”
Despite short-term turbulence, Mitchnick emphasized that BlackRock remains committed to digital assets as part of a broader financial transformation.
We see ourselves as having the role of a bridge… between traditional finance and the digital asset world,” he said. “Over time, there’s certainly going to continue to be a greater role for digital assets and this technology theme in general for many of our clients.”
Read More: Bitcoin May Evolve Into Low-Beta Equity Play Reflexively, BlackRock's Mitchnik Says
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