fidelity

📉 Директор по макроэкономике Fidelity Юрриен Тиммер выделяет два ключевых уровня, основываясь на так называемом «степенном законе» (power law) роста цены $BTC :
1. $65 000 как «линия на песке»: Этот уровень, соответствующий предыдущему историческому максимуму, станет первой и главной зоной битвы в случае, если 2026 год станет годом консолидации (бокового движения).
2. $45 000 как уровень «степенного закона»: Это более низкая долгосрочная линия тренда, которая, согласно анализу, служит фундаментальной поддержкой. Если цена опустится к этой линии, это может сигнализировать о формировании долгосрочного дна.
Тиммер отмечает, что если Биткоин будет консолидироваться весь 2026 год, то эта долгосрочная линия тренда приблизится к $65 000, и именно этот уровень может стать «судьбоносной» точкой принятия решения (do-or-die line) для бычьего тренда.
🔄 Контекст: продолжаются ли 4-летние циклы?
Статья указывает, что влияние халвингов на цену со временем ослабевает, но медвежьи рынки остаются частью жизни Биткойна как зрелого актива. Эксперт Дэвид Энг, чьё мнение также приведено, считает, что Биткоин не перешёл в режим плавного роста без коррекций (S-кривая). Он описывает текущую ситуацию как «сжатие» цены ниже её долгосрочного закона роста и прогнозирует, что исторически такое сжатие всегда разрешалось ростом цены.
Таким образом, аналитики не отменяют цикличность, но указывают, что циклы могут становиться длиннее, а волатильность — ниже.
💎 Итог для инвестора
С точки зрения аналитиков Fidelity, 2026 год может стать проверкой на прочность. Основные сценарии вращаются вокруг уровня $65 000:
Удержание выше $65 000: Будет считаться признаком силы и может подготовить почву для будущего роста.
Пробитие и закрепление ниже $65 000: Откроет путь к тестированию следующей фундаментальной поддержки в районе $45 000.
#Bitcoin #Биткойн #Анализ #Fidelity #РыночныйЦикл

Fidelity’s latest 2026 Crypto Market Outlook frames Bitcoin not as a short-term trade, but as a long-term strategic asset entering a new global phase.
One of the most important takeaways is nation-state adoption. Fidelity Digital Assets Research VP Chris Kuiper highlights a game-theory dynamic: if even a few countries begin holding Bitcoin as part of their foreign exchange reserves, others may feel compelled to follow. In a world of geopolitical competition, reserve diversification becomes strategic, not optional. From a pure supply–demand perspective, additional sovereign demand would be structurally bullish—Bitcoin’s fixed supply leaves little room to absorb large, persistent buyers without price impact.
At the same time, Fidelity urges caution. Corporate and institutional accumulation has boosted prices, but it introduces a new risk: forced or discretionary selling during downturns. Unlike early retail-driven cycles, today’s market includes balance sheets, treasury strategies, and fiduciary constraints. If macro conditions tighten or risk appetite shifts sharply, institutional selling could amplify drawdowns.
On the much-debated four-year cycle, Fidelity does not declare it dead—but also doesn’t fully endorse it. Kuiper notes that fear and greed still dominate market behavior, meaning cyclical patterns remain psychologically intact. However, whether recent volatility represents the start of a new bear market or simply a bull-market correction remains unresolved. Fidelity suggests clarity may not emerge until late 2026, underscoring how transitional the current phase is.
Perhaps the most critical insight is this: crypto is entering a new paradigm. The investor base is changing. Traditional asset managers, funds, and institutions are no longer experimenting—they are allocating. And yet, Fidelity stresses that institutional capital inflows are still in their early stages. Compared to the trillions managed by traditional finance, crypto allocations remain marginal. The implication is powerful: even small portfolio shifts at scale could materially impact prices.
Bottom line:
Fidelity sees Bitcoin’s long-term thesis strengthening—through sovereign interest, institutional adoption, and structural scarcity—while acknowledging near-term volatility and unresolved cycle dynamics. For short-term traders, caution is warranted. For long-term investors, the window is still open—but the market is no longer the same one that existed a decade ago.
This isn’t the end of cycles.
It’s the beginning of a different game.
#bitcoin
#BTC
#CryptoNews
#Fidelity
#InstitutionalAdoption
#DigitalAssets
#Macro
#GlobalFinance
#ReserveAsset
#CryptoMarket
#Blockchain
#LongTermInvesting
#MarketOutlook
#altcoins
#Web3

Bitcoin-spot ETFs in the U.S. have outperformed gold ETFs in terms of assets under management (AUM), marking a historic shift as investors embrace bitcoin as a new store of value.

Bitcoin-spot ETFs in the U. S. have outperformed gold ETFs in terms of assets under management (AUM) and sparked a major shift in investor preference. The move reflects the growing popularity of #bitcoin as a modern alternative to traditional assets such as gold. Despite the 20-year dominance of gold ETFs, bitcoin ETFs have outpaced them by just one year since launching in January 2024.
The approval of bitcoin ETFs in the US means that investors do not have to own bitcoins directly, but can use them in a regulated manner to access the coin, bridging the gap between #cryptocurrencies and traditional finance. This accessibility has created significant demand from institutional and retail investors, resulting in bitcoin ETFs outperforming gold ETFs in terms of assets. Well-known financial players such as BlackRock, #Fidelity and Arc Invest have entered the bitcoin #ETF market, increasing confidence and competition.
gold ETFs have long been considered a safe haven from inflation and economic uncertainty. However, bitcoin, also known as digital gold, has emerged as a modern decentralized alternative with similar properties as a store of value. Bitcoin's limited supply of 21 million bitcoins makes it an attractive hedge against inflation, especially for young investors seeking innovation and high returns.
The incredible price performance of bitcoin in 2024 adds to its appeal. Analysts believe this change represents a generational shift. Young investors are evaluating bitcoin's technical and economic potential. At the same time, traditional investors seeking diversification are increasingly including bitcoin ETFs in their portfolios.
The rapid growth of bitcoin ETFs shows that cryptocurrencies are gaining acceptance in the financial system. After years of regulatory hurdles, the approval of a place for bitcoin ETFs in the U. S.
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BIG BREAKING 🚨
FIDELITY HAS BOUGHT ANOTHER 2,660 #BITCOIN. THEY NOW HOLD OVER 205,000 $BTC !
MASSIVE 🔥 ### BIG BREAKING 🚨: Fidelity Acquires Another 2,660 Bitcoin, Now Holding Over 205,000 BTC
In a major development in the cryptocurrency world, Fidelity Investments has announced it has acquired an additional 2,660 Bitcoin (BTC), bringing its total holdings to over 205,000 BTC. This move signals the firm’s ongoing commitment to Bitcoin as a core asset in its investment strategy.
Fidelity, one of the world’s largest asset managers, has long been a major player in the cryptocurrency space. Its recent purchase, valued at over $70 million at current Bitcoin prices, underscores its belief in the long-term potential of digital assets. The firm has been expanding its crypto offerings, providing institutional investors with avenues to gain exposure to Bitcoin and other digital assets.
The purchase comes amid increasing institutional interest in Bitcoin as a store of value and a hedge against inflation. Fidelity's substantial accumulation of Bitcoin further solidifies its position as one of the largest institutional holders of the asset, reinforcing the trend of traditional finance giants embracing cryptocurrencies.
This latest acquisition is likely to have ripple effects in the market, with many investors watching closely to see how this might influence the broader crypto landscape. As Fidelity continues to increase its Bitcoin holdings, it sends a strong signal of confidence in the future of digital assets. #Fidelity #FidelityFBTC #BTC☀️ #Bitcoin❗ #BTCXmasOrDip? $BTC