inflation

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee gave a crucial interview on Friday, February 13, 2026, offering a mixed "encouraging and concerning" outlook on the economy. His standout comment? He’s hopeful that the inflationary shock from tariffs has finally topped out.

🔍 The "Mixed Bag" Breakdown
Tariffs & Goods: Goolsbee noted that goods prices appear to be stabilizing despite the recent wave of tariffs. He expressed hope that we are past the "peak impact" and that these price hikes will prove temporary.

The "Supercore" Headache: While goods are cooling, Goolsbee is "worrisome" about services inflation. He described it as "persistent" and "not yet tamed," noting that the economy is currently "stuck around 3%"—well above the Fed’s 2% target.

Rates Outlook: He believes interest rates "can still go down a fair bit more," but emphasized that the Fed isn't on a pre-set path. Any further cuts are strictly conditional on seeing actual progress in the services sector.

📊 Why This Matters for Crypto ($BTC )
Goolsbee’s comments reflect a "data-dependent" Fed that isn't in a rush to pivot:

Dovish Lean, Hawkish Guardrails: His openness to more rate cuts is generally bullish for crypto. However, his insistence on seeing "actual improvement" rather than just anticipating it means the market might have to wait until the May FOMC meeting for a major move.

Dollar Index (DXY) Reaction: Following the CPI data and Goolsbee’s remarks, the Dollar saw a modest dovish repricing. A weakening Dollar usually acts as a "tail breeze" for Bitcoin.

Inflation Hedge Narrative: If inflation remains "stuck" at 3% as Goolsbee fears, the narrative for Bitcoin as a store of value against fiat debasement gains more mainstream traction.

💡 The Takeaway
Goolsbee is essentially saying the Fed has "room to move," but they are waiting for the services sector to catch up to the cooling goods sector. The "Tariff Peak" is a relief, but the "Services Plateau" is the new enemy.

Do you think the Fed will cut in March, or are we stuck with "higher for longer" until May? 👇

#Fed #AustanGoolsbee #Inflation #TradeCryptosOnX #bitcoin #Macro #DXY #BinanceSquare

Despite the price recovery, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in “extreme fear,” indicating underlying market anxiety.
What to know:
Bitcoin’s price recovered above $70,000 after a drop, driven by cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation data and increased risk appetite.Despite the price recovery, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in “extreme fear,” indicating underlying market anxiety.$8.7 billion in bitcoin losses were realized in the last week, potentially signaling a capitulation event and a shift of supply to stronger hands.
Bitcoin BTC $70,307.99 has clawed its way back above $70,000, recovering from a sharp drop near $60,000 earlier in the month.
The cryptocurrency is up nearly 5% in the last 24-hour period, while the broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index rose 6.2% in the same period.
The rebound comes as investors react to a cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation print and signs of renewed risk appetite. The Consumer Price Index for January rose 2.4% year-over-year, just below the forecasted 2.5%.
That gave markets a reason to believe interest rate cuts could arrive sooner than expected, lifting both stocks and cryptocurrencies. Lower interest rates make risk assets more attractive, as the rate of return on risk-free or low-risk investments lowers.
Traders on prediction market Kalshi are currently weighing a 26% chance of a 25 bps rate cut in April, up from 19% earlier in the week. On Polymarket, the odds rose from 13% to 20%.
Still, the rally masks deeper fractures beneath the surface.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index continues to reflect deep anxiety, hovering near extreme fear levels last seen during the 2022 bear market over the collapse of FTX. The index has been sitting in “extreme fear” since the beginning of the month.
Bitwise analysts noted that $8.7 billion in bitcoin losses were realized in the last week, second only to the fallout from the 3AC collapse.
“Nevertheless, the rotation of supply from weaker hands to conviction investors has historically been associated with market stabilisation phases, though such redistribution requires time to fully unfold,” Bitwise wrote.
Bitcoin treasury firms were sitting on over $21 billion of unrealized losses, an all-time high. Bitcoin’s recovery has seen that figure drop to $16.9 billion.
Thinner trading volumes are supporting the current rally during the weekend and seller exhaustion. The $8.7 billion in realized losses in the last week could be seen as a “textbook capitulation event.”
Yet, the extreme fear gripping the market poses a challenge. As Bitwise research analyst Danny Nelson told CoinDesk, the market’s “main driver right now is fear. Fear that we’ll go lower.”
That fear is seeing investors take any coming rally as a chance to sell. Whether that will keep on materializing or the shift to higher-conviction holders will see the market change directions remains to be seen.
#BTC #GoldSilverRally #Inflation
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The Critical Disconnect
The 20th century's most significant monetary development was arguably the severing of formal links between national currencies and physical commodities—the birth of pure fiat money. This transition, completed when President Nixon suspended the U.S. dollar's convertibility to gold in 1971, marked a fundamental philosophical shift. Money was no longer a claim on a tangible asset but a legal construct backed by government decree and collective trust.
This fiat revolution granted central banks unprecedented control over monetary policy. They could now expand money supply to combat recessions, finance government spending more easily, and manipulate interest rates as economic tools. The immediate benefits included greater flexibility to address economic crises and the elimination of external constraints on domestic policy.
The Inflation Trade-Off
However, this new power came with significant trade-offs. Without the natural discipline imposed by gold's scarcity, governments faced constant temptation to finance spending through money creation, leading to persistent inflationary pressures. The 1970s stagflation exposed this vulnerability, as expansionary policies designed to boost employment instead created rampant inflation alongside economic stagnation.
This era saw the rise of new asset classes as inflation hedges. While gold ($XAU ) remained a traditional store of value, other commodities gained prominence. Oil ($CL) transformed into "black gold," a crucial strategic asset whose price movements began dramatically affecting global economies. Agricultural commodities like wheat ($ZW) and corn ($ZC) became not just foodstuffs but financial instruments sensitive to monetary policy.
The Dollar's Dominance
The post-Bretton Woods system evolved into a de facto global dollar standard. Despite being unbacked by gold, the U.S. dollar's dominance in trade, finance, and reserves created extraordinary exorbitant privilege for the United States. Other nations accumulated dollars as reserves, effectively lending to the U.S. at low cost. This system created global imbalances but provided a unified framework for international commerce.
Digital Precursors
The late 20th century also witnessed the digitization of traditional money—electronic bank transfers, credit cards, and digital accounting of fiat currencies. While often mistaken for true digital currency, these systems merely represented claims on traditional bank deposits rather than innovative forms of money. They streamlined the existing system but didn't alter money's fundamental nature as a centralized, debt-based instrument subject to political control and inflationary erosion.
Key Assets of the Fiat Era: $DXY (U.S. Dollar Index), $XAU (Gold), $CL (Crude Oil), $BTC (Bitcoin as digital gold analogue), $TIP (TIPS ETF for inflation protection)


#FiatMoney #MonetaryPolicy #Inflation #DollarDominance #Write2Earn