🦢⚫ GLOBAL BLACK SWAN SCENARIO — ALL ASSETS IMPACTED ⚫🦢
🌍 1. THE EVENT (THE SHOCK)
• Completely unexpected: war escalation, major bank failure, sovereign default, global cyber outage 🚨
• Happens outside normal models 📉
• News spreads instantly → algorithms react before humans 🤖⚡
• Confidence collapses in hours, not days 😱
📉 2. MARKET REACTION (SELL EVERYTHING)
First rule: sell first, think later ❗
📊 Stocks
• Massive gap-down opens 💥
• Circuit breakers triggered 🔴
• Strong companies fall with weak ones
💣 Crypto
• Extreme volatility 🌪️
• Forced liquidations cascade 🧨
• Funding spikes negative 📉
🪙 Gold
• Drops initially ⬇️
• Sold to meet margin calls 💸
• Later becomes safe haven (phase 2) 🛡️
📉 Bonds
• Safe bonds sold at first 📉
• Yields spike violently ⚡
• Credit spreads explode 💥
• Weak governments face stress
💱 FX
• USD liquidity squeeze 💵🔥
• Emerging markets crash harder 🌋
• Sudden de-pegs possible ❌
💧 3. LIQUIDITY CRISIS (THE REAL DAMAGE)
• Bid-ask spreads widen 📏
• Order books thin 🫥
• Slippage extreme ⚠️
• “No buyers” moments 😨
• Correlation across assets → 1.0 🔗
🏦 4. SYSTEMIC STRESS
• Banks tighten lending ❌
• Hedge funds face margin calls 🔨
• Exchanges pause trading 🧊
• Withdrawal delays or limits 🚫
• Counterparty risk explodes ☠️
🧠 5. PSYCHOLOGY (PURE PANIC)
• Fear dominates logic 😵
• Social media amplifies chaos 📱🔥
• Rumors move markets 🗣️
• Long-term investors forced to sell 😭
⏳ 6. AFTERMATH
• Central banks intervene 🏦
• Emergency rate cuts 💉
• Liquidity injections 🖨️
• Bailouts / guarantees announced 🛡️
🛡️ 7. SURVIVAL RULES
• Cash = survival oxygen 👑
• Low or zero leverage ⚠️
• Smaller position size
• Opportunity comes after panic
⚫ A black swan cannot be predicted — only survived.
