macro

There’s a timeframe most traders ignore…
Not too noisy like the Daily.
Not too slow like the Weekly.
The 3-Day chart.
Wide enough to see the cycle.
Fast enough to catch the kill shot.
And I’m not watching RSI.
Not headlines.
Not narratives.

I’m watching one thing:
The 50 SMA vs 200 SMA Death Cross on the 3-Day timeframe.

📜 HISTORY DOESN’T REPEAT — BUT IT RHYMES
🔻 2013 Cycle
BTC had already dropped over 72% before the death cross appeared.
After the cross?
Another brutal -52% flush.
That was true capitulation.
🔻 2017 Cycle
Down roughly 67% before the cross.
Death cross printed in November 2018.
What followed?
Another ~50% collapse.
Hope was erased.
🔻 2021 Cycle
BTC fell ~50% before the May 2022 cross.
After confirmation?
An additional 45% drawdown.
That marked the cycle bottom.

🕰 NOW IT’S 2026.
Peak: October 2025.
Current drawdown: ~52%.
And right now — the 50 SMA is approaching the 200 SMA on the 3-Day chart.
If the cross confirms in the coming weeks…
Historically, that hasn’t marked the end.
It marked the beginning of the final leg down.

📉 HIGH-PROBABILITY SCENARIO
If prior cycles even partially rhyme:
• Another 30% → ~$40,000
• Another 50% → ~$30,000
Not because of fear.
Not because of news.
Because every cycle demands one last purge.
Markets transition from hope → denial → panic → exhaustion.
The death cross often appears at exhaustion.

⚠️ IMPORTANT
A death cross is not prophecy.
But historically, it has aligned with capitulation phases.
It’s the moment when the last believers start to question.
And ironically — that’s when the next cycle quietly begins.
Markets don’t destroy the uninformed.
They destroy the impatient.

If the cross confirms:

Don’t panic.
Don’t chase.
Prepare.
The final leg is usually the most painful…
But it’s also where generational positioning begins.

#Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoCycle #Macro #Marketstructure