cryptomarket

Bitcoin has delivered one of the most violent reversals of this cycle — crashing from $126,000 in October to nearly $59,000 by February 2026. Months of gains were erased. Euphoria turned into fear.

But here’s what’s changing 👇

Over the past several days, $BTC has stabilized between $63,000 and $70,000. Volatility is cooling. Selling pressure is slowing. And structurally, this looks very different from the panic phase we saw earlier.

According to crypto analyst @gmulun (Ulun), this could be the final emotional reset before expansion begins. His 8-month roadmap outlines a cautious short-term outlook… followed by a potentially explosive recovery.

📉 Phase 1: Final Bottom (March)

Ulun expects one more downside sweep — potentially toward $55,000.
This would:
• Complete a full capitulation structure
• Trigger maximum fear
• Flush weak hands before accumulation

Historically, major bull cycles often begin right after maximum emotional exhaustion.

🧱 Phase 2: Accumulation (April)

Sideways action. Low excitement. Quiet absorption by strong hands.
Confidence won’t return immediately — but the heavy distribution phase would likely end here.

Smart money typically accumulates during boredom, not euphoria.

💰 Phase 3: Liquidity Shift (May–June)

Ulun’s thesis includes a potential Federal Reserve rate cut acting as a macro catalyst.

If liquidity improves:
• Risk assets benefit
• Crypto capital inflows increase
• Open interest expansion accelerates

June could mark the first strong impulsive move upward — reigniting optimism.

🔄 Phase 4: Reset Before Breakout (July)

No straight lines in crypto.
A healthy consolidation here would strengthen structure before testing prior highs.

🚀 Phase 5: New ATH (August–September)

Ulun projects:
• Break above $126,000 in August
• Extension toward $150,000–$160,000 by September

This would push $BTC into price discovery and likely ignite a broader altcoin rally.

🧠 Market Psychology — Where Are We Now?

Using the Wall Street Cheat Sheet model:
• $126K = Euphoria
• $59K = Panic / Capitulation
• $63K–$70K = Late capitulation / Early anger

If accurate, we’re closer to emotional reset than to fresh collapse.

📊 Additional Metrics To Watch

For confirmation of this roadmap:
• ETF inflows & institutional positioning
• Miner selling pressure
• Long-term holder supply trends
• Funding rates & derivatives leverage
• Global liquidity (M2 expansion)

The real driver won’t just be sentiment — it will be liquidity returning to the system.

🎯 The Big Question

Is $55K the final shakeout before expansion?
Or does macro uncertainty delay the cycle reset?

Eight months in crypto can completely rewrite the narrative. If liquidity improves and structure confirms, the path toward six-figure Bitcoin becomes technically possible again.

⚠️ This outlook is analysis, not financial advice. Always manage risk and avoid emotional trading.

$XRP just pulled off a classic bear trap, catching aggressive short sellers at exactly the wrong moment. On February 26, 2026, price briefly dropped below the key $1.33 neckline, confirming what looked like a textbook head-and-shoulders breakdown. Many traders expected a 20% crash toward $1.12.
But instead of collapsing, XRP bounced back sharply — recovering 6% and flipping the entire bearish setup upside down.
The 20% Breakdown That Failed
When XRP slipped below $1.33, the move looked convincing.
The head-and-shoulders pattern was clear, and declining On-Balance Volume (OBV) added more bearish confirmation. Sentiment quickly turned negative, and traders piled into short positions expecting further downside.
However, the breakdown didn’t follow through.
Price quickly reclaimed $1.33 and formed a strong V-shaped recovery. That sudden reversal exposed the move as a likely shakeout rather than a real trend reversal.
$770M in Overcrowded Shorts
Derivatives data shows just how aggressive bears became before the reversal.
Open interest jumped from $750 million to $770 million within hours, showing heavy positioning in futures markets — mostly on the short side. At the same time, funding rates collapsed by 460%, meaning short sellers were paying high premiums to hold their trades.
This created perfect conditions for a short squeeze.
As price rebounded, leveraged shorts were forced to close positions, accelerating the upside move and deepening losses for bearish traders.
Whales Absorb 150 Million XRP
While panic and short selling dominated retail activity, large holders were doing the opposite.
Between February 23 and February 25, wallets holding between 1 million and 1 billion XRP accumulated around 150 million tokens — nearly $200 million worth — at an average price near $1.35.
This kind of accumulation during peak fear signals strong conviction from smart money. By absorbing the selling pressure, whales may have established a new structural support zone around $1.31.
Instead of a breakdown, the market may have witnessed a controlled shakeout designed to remove weak hands.
What Happens Next?
The key level remains $1.33. Holding above this zone strengthens the argument that the head-and-shoulders pattern has failed.
However, a breakdown below $1.26 would invalidate the recovery and reopen downside risk.
At this stage, the market is at a decision point.
Is the 150 million XRP whale accumulation enough to officially cancel the bearish pattern — or is this just a temporary bounce forming a larger right shoulder before a deeper crash?
The next few sessions will likely decide.
Disclaimer:
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Crypto markets are highly volatile. Always conduct your own research (DYOR) and consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.
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