Headline: Glassnode says BTC’s run to $97.6K was driven by short-dated options flow — not broad, longer-term conviction Bitcoin’s pop to $97,600 last week sparked a surge in bullish options activity, but on-chain analytics firm Glassnode argues the tape looked more like tactical, short-dated positioning than a market fully repricing risk to the upside. In a Jan. 23 Twitter thread the firm dissected how options metrics can separate transient flow from genuine conviction. What the options market showed - Front-end demand: As BTC climbed roughly 8% in mid‑January, near-term skew flipped sharply toward neutral from “deep put territory.” The 1-week 25‑delta skew moved from about 8% to 1%, and options volume showed heavy call buying — the put/call volume ratio fell from 1 to 0.4. - Longer-dated hesitation: By contrast, longer expiries barely budged. The 1‑month 25‑delta skew only moved from 7% to 4% at its low and remained tilted toward puts. The 3‑month 25‑delta skew shifted by less than 1.5% and likewise stayed in put asymmetry. Why that divergence matters Glassnode emphasized the distinction between “flow” and “risk pricing.” Short-dated call demand can lift spot quickly, but if that demand doesn’t translate into repriced skew across maturities, the market isn’t necessarily adopting a higher‑conviction, longer-term bullish view. In other words: lots of call buying in the front end can be tactical, not structural. Volatility behavior reinforced the view The volatility tape added weight to the short-dated positioning story. ATM implied volatility was sold as price climbed, suggesting gamma sellers were monetizing the rally — a pattern not typical of sustained breakouts. When vol is being sold into rallies, price can become more vulnerable if follow‑through buying doesn’t arrive once short-dated structures roll off. What traders should watch next Glassnode laid out a simple checklist for a cleaner, higher‑probability breakout: spot pressing key levels, skew moving higher with conviction across maturities, and implied volatility being bid (not sold). For BTC to convincingly revisit $97,600, monitor whether longer-dated skew lifts out of put territory and whether implied volatility starts to be bought as spot tests critical resistance again. At press time, BTC was trading around $89,297. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news

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