correctionwatch

The crypto market is showing classic signs of correction pressure as Bitcoin trades around $117,500, down from its August high of $124,533. Historical data reveals September as crypto's weakest month, with Bitcoin averaging -3.77% returns since 2013.
Current Market Signals:
Bitcoin dominance dropping to 57.36%, indicating altcoin rotation but also potential weakness
ETF outflows hit $751M in August, breaking four-month inflow streak.
Technical indicators show bearish divergence with RSI oversold below 30.
Short-term holder realized price at $108,900 suggests vulnerable support.
September Correction Patterns:
Analysts warn of potential deeper pullback to $93,000-$95,000 range if key support fails. The current 13% decline from August highs aligns with typical bull market corrections of 17%. However, institutional buying on dips and Fed rate cut tailwinds could limit downside.
Key Levels to Watch:
Bitcoin: Support at $115,000-$117,000; resistance at $118,000-$120,000.
Ethereum: Testing $4,500 support after falling below $4,600.
Market-wide volatility remains elevated with altcoins showing -3% to -12% declines.
Fed Impact:
Despite rate cut optimism, structural September selling from portfolio rebalancing and tax loss harvesting creates headwinds. The market needs to hold current support levels to avoid deeper correction.
My Outlook:
This appears to be healthy consolidation rather than major reversal. Historical patterns suggest September lows often mark cycle bottoms before Q4 rallies. Key is whether Bitcoin holds $115,000 psychological support.
Trade Tip of the Day:
BTC/USDT Short Setup (Correction Play)
Entry: $117,200-$117,800 on any bounce.
Stop Loss: $118,500 (daily close).
Target 1: $115,000 (psychological support).
Target 2: $112,000 (200-day MA test).
Target 3: $108,000 (correction low retest).
Risk management: Size positions small as volatility remains high. Watch for reversal signals if Bitcoin reclaims $118,000 with volume.
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