bitcoincycle

Mēs tikko redzējām, ka Bitcoin zaudēja gandrīz 50% no savas vērtības kopš 2025. gada oktobra augstākā punkta 126K.

Bitcoin ir izdzīvojis vairāku 70–80% samazinājumus. Tas ir atguvies līdz jauniem visu laiku augstākajiem rādītājiem katrā ciklā.
Bet strukturālās izmaiņas kopš 2024.–2025. gada ir mainījušas kaut ko fundamentālu:
Nākamā paplašināšanās fāze var neatkārtoties 2017. gadā. Tā var neatkārtoties 2021. gadā. Nevis tāpēc, ka Bitcoin būtu vājinājies. Tāpēc, ka tā īpašumtiesību bāze ir attīstījusies.
Kas mainījās?
Trīs strukturālas transformācijas pārveidoja Bitcoin:
➡️ Spot ETF ir mainījuši pieprasījuma mehāniku

🔁 Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle — History & Basics
Bitcoin historically har 4-year halving ke aas paas major cycles follow karta hai:
💹 Past Cycles:
🟢 Cycle 1: Halving Nov 2012 → Top Dec 2013 → Bottom Jan 2015 → Drop 🔻87%
🟢 Cycle 2: Halving July 2016 → Top Dec 2017 → Bottom Dec 2018 → Drop 🔻84%
🟢 Cycle 3: Halving May 2020 → Top Nov 2021 → Bottom Nov 2022 → Drop 🔻77%
Key Observations:
⏱ Halving → Supply shock → Bull run start
📈 Top → Crowd euphoria → Sell pressure
💔 Bottom → Fear + exhaustion → Smart accumulation
📊 Drop historically 70–85% from peak
⏳ Cycle duration (halving → bottom): ~3.5–4 years
Conclusion: Bitcoin ka behavior largely repeatable hai, but exact dates aur price vary karte hain.
2️⃣ Current Cycle (2024–2026)
📅 Important Dates:
🟢 Last Halving: April 2024 → Reward 6.25 → 3.125 BTC
🚀 Expected Top: $126k → 7-Oct-2025
💔 Expected Bottom: $35k – $55k → Oct–Dec 2026
🔄 Next Halving: April 2028 → Reward 3.125 → 1.5625 BTC
🔍 Market Psychology
🟢 Halving → Early Bull: Smart money enters, price gradually upar jaata hai
🔵 Euphoria / Top: Crowd FOMO, media hype, “easy money” phase
🔴 Capitulation / Panic: Price girta hai, retail panic selling
🟣 Bottom / Accumulation: Smart investors accumulate, market exhausted, fear highest
Important: Market bottom fear + exhaustion pe banta hai, not just price.
3️⃣ Expected Bear Market Drop
From top $126k:
💰 Expected Bottom Zone:
🟢 Conservative (60% drop) → $50k
🔵 Realistic (70% drop) → $38k
🔴 Aggressive (75% drop) → $31k
✅ Most likely bottom zone: $35k – $55k (Oct–Dec 2026)
4️⃣ Ladder/DCA Buying Strategy — Start $60k
Step-by-step accumulation is the safest approach:
💎 Ladder Buying Plan:
🟢 $60k–$55k → 20% budget → Start small
🟢 $55k–$50k → 20% budget → Accumulation phase
🔵 $50k–$45k → 25% budget → Strong buy
🔵 $45k–$40k → 25% budget → Near probable bottom
🔴 <$40k → 10% budget → Opportunistic buy
💡 Ladder Buying Tips:
🚫 Don’t chase bottom → Exact bottom impossible
✅ Step-by-step DCA → Average cost smooth hoti hai
💰 Profit plan ready rakho → Top se 30–50% secure
5️⃣ Realistic Long-Term Strategy
🟢 Now → Top 2025: Small monthly DCA
🔵 Top → Bear Market 2026: Heavy accumulation with ladder plan
🟣 Bottom → Next Cycle: Hold for next bull run (2027–2028)
🔄 Next Halving 2028: Repeat cycle
6️⃣ Key Takeaways
⏱ Bitcoin ka cycle largely predictable time + psychology se
🔻 Past cycles show 70–85% drops
💎 Ladder/DCA approach se risk reduce hota hai
💔 Market bottom fear + exhaustion phase me aata hai
📢 Noise ignore karo, cycle samajh lo, baar-baar poochne ki zarurat nahi
Agar ye guide helpful laga:
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#BitcoinCycle #CryptoStrategy #PioneerX
$BTC $ETH $BNB 🚀📊💎

bitkoins vienmēr piedzīvo kritumu pirms pasaules kausa un vienmēr piedzīvo pieaugumu pēc pasaules kausa beigām, tāpēc vai tu tagad zini, ko darīt?#bitcoin #bearmarket #bitcoincycle #bitcointips

2026. gada februāris vēlreiz ir satricinājis Bitcoin investorus. Pēc strauja krituma līdz gandrīz 60000 USD 5. februārī Bitcoin atguvās virs 68000 USD, atverot vecu diskusiju kriptovalūtu pasaulē:
Vai Bitcoin slavenie četru gadu cikli joprojām ir aktuāli, vai tirgus ir tos pārspējis?
Gadu gaitā Bitcoin cenas kustība sekoja pazīstamam ritmam, kas cieši saistīts ar puscikla notikumiem. Taču šodienas tirgus izskatās ļoti atšķirīgi. ETF, institucionālais kapitāls un makroekonomiskie spēki tagad spēlē daudz lielāku lomu. Daži analītiķi apgalvo, ka cikls ir beidzies. Citi uzskata, ka tas joprojām ir dzīvs—tikai attīstās.

This is a brief follow-up to my earlier view that Bitcoin could form a cycle low near $25,000 around 2026.
Since that analysis, $BTC has retraced to the $60K zone, which many are already interpreting as capitulation.
Price has pulled back significantly, sentiment flipped bearish almost overnight, and the narrative shifted from “new all-time highs” to “the cycle is broken” at lightning speed.
Structurally, however, this move doesn’t weaken the thesis—it actually aligns with it.
Historically, true cycle bottoms don’t occur during the first wave of downside. They emerge much later, after:
Several failed recovery attemptsExtended periods of boredom and compressed volatilityFalling volume and fading participationA dominant belief that “crypto is finished”
What we’re seeing now resembles early-to-mid cycle compression, not final capitulation. Fast sell-offs are painful, but genuine bear market lows are slow, grinding, and emotionally draining. They don’t arrive with panic—they arrive with indifference.
If the framework pointing toward a 2026 bottom near $25K is even broadly accurate, then levels like $60K are not the conclusion of downside—they’re part of the process that resets expectations. Markets need time to erase optimism, not just price.
The core takeaway remains the same:
The real edge isn’t calling the exact bottom.
It’s being mentally and strategically prepared to act when conviction disappears.
Markets don’t bottom when fear is loud.
They bottom when no one cares anymore.
If this cycle plays out similarly, the true accumulation phase won’t feel exciting—it will feel pointless.
And that’s usually when long-term wealth is built… quietly.
#BTC #BitcoinCycle #Marketstructure #CryptoPsychology #Bitcoinprice

The crypto market is currently a graveyard of "new high" dreams. In what feels like a blink of an eye, Bitcoin has cascaded from its October 2025 peaks to the $60,000 region, leaving retail investors reeling and sentiment in the gutter.

For many, this looks like the end. But if you’ve been following my thesis on the 2026 Cycle Low, this isn’t a surprise—it’s a confirmation.
The Anatomy of a True Bottom
Historically, the first sharp drop in a cycle is rarely the bottom. It is the "Shock Phase." True generational bottoms are not built on drama or loud panic; they are built on apathy.
If we are tracking toward a potential cycle low of ~$25,000 in 2026, we have to understand the psychological roadmap required to get there. A market doesn't just drop to $25K while everyone is still watching the charts. It grinds there through:
* Failed Rebounds: Every $5K "recovery" gets sold into, exhaustion sets in.
* Prolonged Boredom: Price action becomes flat, and "crypto twitter" goes silent.
* Institutional Quiet: The narrative shifts from "ETF revolution" to "structural failure."
* The Death of Hope: The belief that "this time is different" is completely erased.
Why $60K is "Compression," Not "Exhaustion"
What we are seeing at $60K is early-to-mid cycle compression. It is a violent reset of over-leveraged positions. While it hurts, it lacks the "numbing" quality of a true bear market floor. In a real bear market, you don't feel angry at the price—you feel nothing at all.
The model pointing to a 2026 low isn't about being a "doom-poster." It’s about strategic patience. If the path to $25K is the destination, then $60K is just a rest stop designed to trap those who think the "discount" is already over.
The Golden Rule of Wealth Cycles
Wealth in this space isn't built by catching a falling knife during a loud crash. It is built quietly, when the volume is gone and participation is at multi-year lows.
> "Markets don't bottom when fear is loud; they bottom when nobody is left to speak."
>
If you can stay mentally liquid while others are emotionally drained, the 2026 window will represent the greatest accumulation phase of the decade. But make no mistake: it won't feel like an opportunity when it arrives. It will feel like a waste of time. And that is exactly when you should be paying the most attention.
News Type: Market Analysis / Macro Update
Call to Action: Are you panic-selling at $60K, or are you waiting for the "Apathy Phase" to begin? Share your strategy in the comments—are we seeing a bounce here, or is the $25K magnet real?
#BTC #BitcoinCycle $BTC
$XRP

Manā iepriekšējā ziņojumā es dalījos ar ideju, ka Bitcoin potenciālais cikla zems varētu veidoties ap ~$25,000 2026. gadā.
Kopš šīs analīzes,
tagad ir tirdzniecība samazinājusies līdz $60K reģionam. Daudziem cilvēkiem tas jau šķiet kā kapitulācija.
Cena ir būtiski samazinājusies, noskaņojums ir ātri pārgājis uz medvējām tendencēm, un naratīvs ir mainījies no “jauniem augstumiem” tieši uz “cikls ir salauzts.”
Tomēr, no strukturāla viedokļa, tas nenoliedz sākotnējo tēzi — tas patiesībā to atbalsta.

$BTC tagad ir pārbaudījusi $60K reģionu, nosūtot sentimentu stipri pesimistisku un pārveidojot naratīvu no “jauniem maksimumiem” uz “cikls ir salauzts.”

BTCUSDT
Perp 65,988.5
-5.77%
📉 Cena ir samazinājusies, bailes pieaug, bet strukturāli teorija paliek neskarta.

Kāpēc $60K nav dibens:

Vēsturiskie cikla zemākie punkti veidojas vēlāk, nevis pirmajā sāpju vilnī

Gaidi neizdotus atgūšanās mēģinājumus, zemu volatilitāti un samazinātu dalību

Patiesie lāču tirgus dibeni ierodas klusi, ar apātiju—nevis drāmu
💡 Galvenais secinājums:

Iespēja nav par precīzu dibenu laika noteikšanu

$BTC Šis ir ātrs turpinājums manai iepriekšējai prognozei, kas norādīja uz potenciālo Bitcoin cikla zemu ap $25,000 2026. gadā.
Kopš tā laika, $BTC ir pārdevies $60K zonā, un daudziem tirgotājiem tas jau šķiet kā pilnīga kapitulācija.
Cena ir strauji kritusies.
Noskaņojums gandrīz no nakts kļuva pesimistisks.
Narratīvs ātri pārgāja no "jauni augstumi tuvojas" uz "šis cikls ir salauzts."
Bet strukturāli, šeit nekas nepārtrauc teoriju — tas faktiski saskan ar to.
Vēsturiski patiesi cikla dibeni neveidojas pirmajā sāpju vilnī. Tie parādās daudz vēlāk, pēc tam, kad tirgus ir izgājis cauri:

Ja tu esi bijis kriptovalūtu pasaulē pietiekami ilgi, tu jau zini šo sajūtu.
Viss izskatās spēcīgi. Virsraksti ir optimistiski. Cenas lido. Cilvēki sāk teikt: “Šoreiz ir savādāk.” Tad pēkšņi… Bitcoin krīt par 10% dienā. Pēc tam par 20%. Tad bailes pārņem.
Un visi sāk uzdot to pašu jautājumu:
“Vai tas ir beigas... vai vienkārši vēl viens cikls?”
Lai saprastu, kas notiek 2026. gadā, vispirms mums jāpaskatās, kas notika iepriekš.
Jo Bitcoin nepārvietojas nejauši. Tas seko cilvēku uzvedības, naudas plūsmas un sviras modeļiem.

Understanding Bitcoin’s Evolving Four-Year Cycle in a Maturing Market

“In 2026, Bitcoin enters a moderated cycle phase where institutional capital provides a steady bid, even as long-term holders distribute supply—creating a prolonged equilibrium between accumulation and distribution rather than a traditional bear-market collapse.”
Introduction: A Cycle That Bent, Not Broke
Bitcoin’s four-year cycle has long served as a structural framework for market participants. Anchored to the protocol’s halving schedule, this cycle historically delivered a powerful post-halving rally, followed by a sharp correction and an extended bear market.
However, the 2024–2025 cycle challenged this framework. While Bitcoin still peaked in Q4 2025—roughly 18 months after the April 2024 halving—the year ended with a negative annual return of approximately -6%, marking the first-ever down year in a post-halving period.
This dual outcome—a cycle-timed peak but weak annual performance—suggests the four-year cycle has not disappeared, but rather evolved.
Historical Context: How the Cycle Traditionally Played Out
Previous cycles followed a remarkably consistent rhythm:
2012 Halving → Peak in 2013 → ~58% decline in 20142016 Halving → Peak in 2017 → ~80% decline in 20182020 Halving → Peak in 2021 → ~75% decline in 2022
Each post-halving year delivered explosive gains, reinforcing the belief that Bitcoin’s cycle was almost mechanical in nature.
By contrast, 2025 peaked at ~$126,000 but lacked euphoria, retail mania, and sustained upside momentum, signaling a structural shift in market behavior.
2025: Breaking the Pattern, Preserving the Rhythm
From a full-year performance perspective, the four-year cycle “law” was broken. Yet from a chronological standpoint, it remained intact:
Price peaked in Q4 of the post-halving yearLong-term holders began distributing supply on scheduleMarket sentiment transitioned from optimism to caution
In this sense, 2025 both broke and echoed the cycle—altering its magnitude but preserving its timing.
Why the Four-Year Cycle Is Now More Moderate
Several structural changes explain why future cycles may be less extreme:
1. Diminishing Supply Shock
By the 2024 halving, approximately 94% of all Bitcoin had already been mined. The halving reduced annual supply inflation from ~1.7% to ~0.85%, far less impactful than earlier cycles.
2. Institutional Market Structure
Spot Bitcoin ETFs, corporate treasury allocations, and regulated investment vehicles now provide persistent, non-speculative demand, replacing the retail-driven boom-and-bust dynamics of earlier eras.
3. Reflexive Expectations Still Matter
Despite structural changes, Bitcoin remains a reflexive asset—its price is heavily influenced by collective belief. Veteran market participants still expect the four-year rhythm, and their behavior continues to reinforce it.
This explains why Bitcoin has topped in every Q4 of the post-halving year, including 2025.
Long-Term Holders vs Institutional Capital: A 2026 Tug-of-War
On-chain data supports this evolving dynamic. The 1-year+ holding wave, which tracks Bitcoin unmoved for over a year, has declined during every post-halving year:
201720212025
This indicates systematic distribution by long-term holders, many of whom have navigated multiple cycles and still view 2026 as a traditional bear-market year.
In contrast, institutional investors largely dismiss cycle theory. Their motivations are different:
Portfolio diversification (e.g., 2–4% allocation)Inflation and monetary debasement hedgingLong-term structural exposure
As a result, institutions are absorbing supply distributed by long-term holders, creating a market defined not by collapse, but by balance.
Macro Liquidity: A Constraining Force in 2026
While internal Bitcoin dynamics are stabilizing, the macro backdrop remains restrictive.
Research shows Bitcoin moves in the direction of global liquidity 83% of the time over rolling 12-month periods. Yet 2026 does not appear to be a year of broad liquidity expansion:
United States:QT ended in late 2025, but no new QEPolicy rates remain around ~3%Only limited, tactical rate cuts expectedEurope (ECB & BoE):Quantitative tightening continuesNo major easing expected before late 2026Japan:Shifted to tightening in 2025Policy rate raised to 0.75%, ending yen-carry liquidity flows
This environment favors short-lived liquidity boosts, not sustained bull-market momentum.
Conclusion: 2026 as a Transitional Year
Rather than a textbook bear market, 2026 is shaping up as a year of structural tension:
Long-term holders distribute based on cycle expectationsInstitutional investors provide steady, price-insensitive demandMacro liquidity remains fragmented and tactical
The result is likely a moderated cycle—less explosive on the upside, less violent on the downside, and increasingly shaped by institutional behavior rather than speculative excess.
#BitcoinCycle #CryptoMarkets #CryptoEducation #ArifAlpha