cryptomarketcycle

Daudzi tirgotāji, kuri ieguldīja altkoīnos decembra 2024 hype laikā, saskaras ar ievērojamiem zaudējumiem (60-80% kritumi) neskatoties uz Bitcoin neseno visu laiku augstāko līmeni. Kas izraisa šo atšķirību? Apskatīsim kriptovalūtu tirgus ciklu:*
4 Fāzes Kriptovalūtu Tirgus Rotācijā:*
1️⃣ *Bitcoin Dominances Pieaugums*: $BTC BTC vada, altkoīni atpaliek, un institūcijas dod priekšroku "drošībai" BTC 📈
2️⃣ *Bitcoin Sānu Konsolidācija*: BTC atdziest, kapitāls pārvietojas uz ETH & spēcīgiem altkoīniem, un riska uzņemšanas noskaņojums atgriežas 🔄

The crypto market cap currently sits at $3.67 trillion, down 4.26% in the latest session. But if you're caught up in the euphoria, you might be missing the most important chart pattern of this entire cycle—one that's been playing out for over three years and is now approaching its climactic final act.



The Diagonal Pattern Nobody Wants to Acknowledge
Technical analysts have been tracking what's known as an ending diagonal formation across the entire cryptocurrency market. This isn't your typical bull market structure. It's the kind of pattern that appears at the exhaustion point of major trends, right before everything changes.
The chart tells a story in five distinct waves. We've already witnessed waves 1 through 4—the initial surge, the correction, the powerful rally to previous highs, and the pullback that made everyone question whether Bitcoin and the broader market still had legs. Now we're in wave 5, and according to this analysis, the target is crystal clear: $5.35 trillion in total market capitalization.
That sounds bullish, right? After all, we're talking about another $1.68 trillion flowing into crypto assets. Ethereum could push to new all-time highs. Bitcoin might flirt with six-figure valuations. Altcoins would likely explode in the kind of frenzy that turns baristas into portfolio managers and your Uber driver into a DeFi expert.
But here's what the chart really shows: this is where parabolas end, and pain begins.
The Structural Top That Retail Won't See Coming
The difference between a structural top and an emotional top is everything. An emotional top happens when everyone panics and sells. A structural top happens when the mathematical framework of the market exhausts itself—when the buying power runs out, not because of fear, but because the pattern is complete.
Wave 5 represents the final push, the last gasp of optimism. It's when mainstream media runs cover stories about crypto millionaires. When your relatives start asking how to buy Ethereum. When influencers promise that this time will be different, and $30 trillion market caps become the conservative estimate.
Smart money doesn't wait for those headlines. They're not trying to catch the absolute top. They're watching the structure, and when wave 5 completes near that $5.35 trillion mark, they'll start rotating out quietly, systematically, while retail is still calculating their Lambo payments.
What History Teaches Us About Market Cycles
The playbook never changes because human psychology doesn't change. We've seen this pattern repeat across every asset class throughout history—from the Dutch tulip mania to the dot-com bubble, from the 2017 crypto peak to the NFT frenzy of 2021.
The tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) might be revolutionary. AI crypto projects might genuinely change how we interact with blockchain technology. Web3 could absolutely be the future of the internet. None of that matters when you're caught on the wrong side of a structural market cycle.
The Bitcoin faithful will argue this time is different because of institutional adoption. Ethereum supporters will point to the successful transition to proof-of-stake and the growing DeFi ecosystem. Both might be right about the long-term trajectory. But long-term trajectories and short-term market structure are two completely different conversations.
Reading Between the Lines of Diagonal Patterns
An ending diagonal is characterized by converging trendlines—the highs get higher, but at a decelerating rate, while the lows also rise but fail to show the explosive strength of earlier bull phases. It's a pattern of exhaustion disguised as continuation.
The labels on the chart—(i), (ii), (iii), (iv), and eventually (v)—represent sub-waves within the larger wave 5 structure. Each push higher becomes more difficult. Each consolidation reveals more distribution than accumulation. The volume profile typically tells the real story: declining participation on rallies, increasing pressure on dips.
When the pattern completes, the move that follows isn't usually a gentle correction. It's a breakdown that catches nearly everyone off guard because sentiment is still euphoric at the top. That's how markets work—they inflict maximum pain on the maximum number of participants.
The Divergence Between Retail Sentiment and Market Reality
Here's the uncomfortable truth: by the time retail investors are convinced that crypto will reach a $30 trillion market cap, the smart money has already positioned for the opposite scenario. This isn't a conspiracy—it's simply a function of information asymmetry and experience.
Retail chases price. They buy when Bitcoin breaks out to new highs and everyone's talking about it. They hold through corrections because they've been told that "diamond hands" are the path to wealth. They add more capital near tops because FOMO is a more powerful emotion than fear.
Institutional players and experienced traders do the opposite. They accumulate during bear markets when nobody wants to touch crypto. They distribute during euphoria when liquidity is abundant and buyers are plentiful. They don't need to time the exact top because they understand that exiting in the $4.8-5.5 trillion range is good enough.
What Happens After Wave 5 Completes?
If this analysis is correct, the completion of wave 5 near $5.35 trillion won't be followed by a brief consolidation and then continuation to $10 trillion. Instead, we'd expect a corrective wave that retraces a significant portion of the entire diagonal structure.
That could mean a return to the $2-2.5 trillion range, potentially even lower depending on how quickly sentiment shifts. Bitcoin might find support in the $50,000-60,000 zone. Ethereum could revisit the low four figures. Altcoins—especially the lower-cap projects without real utility—would likely face devastation.
For those positioned correctly, this creates generational buying opportunities. But you can't take advantage of those opportunities if you're fully allocated at the top, or worse, leveraged long into a structural completion.
The Tokenization Narrative Won't Save Overvalued Assets
One of the current market narratives driving optimism is the tokenization of real-world assets. Banks are exploring blockchain rails for settlements. Real estate is being fractionalized. Securities are moving on-chain. This is all legitimate progress that supports the long-term thesis for crypto adoption.
But here's the thing about narratives: they don't override market structure. The internet was revolutionary in 1999, but that didn't prevent the Nasdaq from losing 78% of its value over the next two years. The best technology can still be embedded in overvalued assets, and when those assets correct, the technology doesn't protect your portfolio.
Web3 gaming, AI-powered DeFi protocols, and institutional-grade blockchain infrastructure will all likely thrive over the next decade. That doesn't mean you should ignore technical patterns suggesting that a major correction is approaching in the near term.
Smart Money Rotation: Where Capital Goes When Crypto Tops
When smart money starts rotating out of crypto, they don't just move to cash and wait. They're repositioning into assets that outperform during the next phase of the economic cycle. That might be commodities if inflation remains persistent. It could be defensive stocks if recession concerns intensify. It might even be moving back into bonds if central banks start cutting rates aggressively.
The point is that capital is always moving somewhere. Understanding where you are in the cycle—and where institutional money is likely to flow next—is just as important as understanding whether Bitcoin is a good long-term investment.
For retail investors who haven't experienced a full crypto bear market, the psychological challenge is enormous. Watching your portfolio decline 70-80% from the top is emotionally devastating, even if you believe in the technology. Most people sell at the worst possible time, not because they're stupid, but because they're human.
Preparing for What Comes Next
If you're reading this and feeling defensive, that's actually valuable information. Market tops are characterized by defensiveness and denial. Nobody wants to hear that the party might be ending soon. Everyone has a reason why "this time is different."
But the most successful investors aren't the ones who catch every rally. They're the ones who preserve capital during corrections and have dry powder when assets go on sale. They're the ones who understand that getting rich in crypto isn't about riding one wave to infinity—it's about catching multiple cycles and not giving back all your gains every time.
So what should you do? That depends entirely on your risk tolerance, time horizon, and conviction. But if this diagonal pattern is correct, here are some considerations:
If you've made substantial gains in this cycle, consider taking some profits off the table. Not necessarily everything, but enough that a 50-60% correction won't devastate your financial situation.
If you're overextended on leverage, now might be the time to reduce that risk. Leverage amplifies gains, but it amplifies losses even more, and margin calls during capitulation events can be financially ruining.
If you're considering entering crypto for the first time because of the recent gains, understand that you might be buying near a significant top. That doesn't mean you shouldn't allocate anything to crypto, but it does mean your entry point matters enormously.
The Painful Truth About Market Timing
Here's the final piece of uncomfortable truth: even if this analysis is 100% correct, the timing could be off by months. Wave 5 might extend higher than expected. We might see a blow-off top that briefly touches $6 trillion before the reversal. Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent, as the old saying goes.
That's why rigid predictions are dangerous. The chart provides a framework and a warning, not a precise roadmap. The diagonal pattern suggests we're in the late stages of this cycle, probably the final major push. But whether that completes next month, next quarter, or even early next year is unknowable with certainty.
What's more certain is the psychology. Retail will beg for $30 trillion market caps. Social media will be flooded with predictions of Bitcoin at $500,000 and Ethereum at $50,000. Everyone will have a story about someone who turned $10,000 into $10 million. That's when you know the cycle is nearly complete—not because of any chart pattern, but because of human nature.
The markets teach us the same lesson over and over: greed and fear drive cycles, structure defines them, and patience separates survivors from casualties. As we approach what might be the final wave of this crypto bull market, the question isn't whether blockchain technology will change the world—it's whether you'll be positioned to benefit from that change across multiple cycles, or become another cautionary tale about buying the top.
Smart money isn't trying to time perfection; they're simply reading the pattern the market is screaming at anyone willing to listen.


#CryptoMarketCycle #BitcoinAnalysis #SmartMoneyMoves

Everyone loves the “any day now” bull-run chorus. But the higher-timeframe tape is whispering something colder: structure is softening, momentum is bleeding, and buyers aren’t catching like they used to. You can call it FUD. I call it risk management.
📉 The Path That’s Taking Shape

Markets don’t implode all at once; they fracture first, then slide. Here’s the sequence I’m watching:
First crack: BTC loses the $70,000 shelf—momentum stalls, wicks get sold, rallies fade faster.Deeper test: The vacuum below often pulls price toward the $50,000 liquidity pocket.Capitulation zone: If the cascade extends, a brutal tag into the mid-$30Ks can’t be dismissed.

Sounds dramatic? So did every major drawdown—right up until it wasn’t.

💀 Where the Real Damage Lands: Altcoins
This isn’t a sermon for diamond-handed Bitcoiners. It’s a siren for altcoin holders.
When Bitcoin coughs, alts catch pneumonia. A 40% BTC slide doesn’t give altcoins a haircut—it gives them a buzzcut. Mid-caps and low-caps historically shed 70–90%, and some will “add a zero.” Liquidity evacuates BTC first, then deserts alts entirely. Order books thin. Bids vanish. Narratives evaporate.
🧠 Play the Player, Not the Game

Panic is optional. Preparation isn’t.
Audit your exposure.

If your portfolio reads like a small-cap casino, trim before the storm trims you.Don’t chase green.

This is the era of fake breakouts and dead-cat hops designed to punish FOMO.Track BTC Dominance (BTC.D).

If dominance climbs while prices fall, alt pain is not “over”—it’s ongoing.Respect liquidity.

Trade levels where real volume lives. Avoid knife-catching thin books.Have a plan before the move.

Define invalidation, position size, and take-profit ladders. If you can’t write the plan in two sentences, you don’t have one.
⚙️ Harsh Truths No One Likes to Hear
Markets don’t collapse when everyone’s afraid; they collapse when everyone’s comfortable.“Diamond hands” is not a strategy—risk management is.Your conviction isn’t a catalyst. Liquidity is.
🧩 Final Word
I hope I’m wrong. Seriously. But if I’m right, this post might be the reminder that keeps you solvent. This is not the moment for magical thinking—it’s the moment for discipline, defense, and survival mode.

“Bitcoin sets the weather. Your decisions decide the climate.”

Stay sharp. Stay humble. Protect your stack. Survival is a position, too. 🧠

#RiskManagement #CryptoMarketCycle #StaySolvent
$BTC

Šobrīd kripto aprindās cirkulē diagramma, kas liek pieredzējušiem tirgotājiem veikt dubultu skatienu. Tas nav sarežģīti. Tam nav nepieciešama augsta līmeņa tehniskā analīze vai doktora grāds ekonomikā. Tas ir vienkārši vēsture, izklāta svečturi un kastēs, čukstot to pašu stāstu, ko tā stāstījusi divas reizes iepriekš.
„Altcoin krāpšanās lapa” ir atpakaļ, un, ja paraugs izrādās patiess tāpat kā 2019. un 2020. gadā, mēs varētu stāvēt pie kaut kā nozīmīga malas.
Kad diagrammas runā skaļāk nekā prognozes
Esmu godīgs: kripto Twitter ir pilns ar prognozēm. Ikviens ir eksperts pēc zaļās sveces, un ikviens ir skeptiķis pēc sarkanās. Bet ik pa laikam parādās paraugs, kas ir pārāk tīrs, lai to ignorētu. Šī diagramma, kas izseko kopējo altcoin tirgus kapitalizāciju vairākus gadus, rāda trīs atšķirīgas periods, kur tirgus uzvedās gandrīz identiski pirms aizdedzināšanas tam, ko tirgotāji sauc par „altseason.”

Ir grafiks, kas aplido kriptonaudas Twitter, kas liek pieredzējušiem tirgotājiem divreiz paskatīties. Tas parāda divas Bitcoin cenas modeļus blakus: vardarbīgais 2020. gada martā COVID kritums, kam sekoja eksplozīva izaugsme, un pašreizējā 2025. gada cenu darbība, kas izskatās dīvaini līdzīga. Jautājums, ko visi uzdod: vai mēs esam uz robežas liecināt par tādu pašu izlaušanos, kas piešķīra miljonārus pirms pieciem gadiem?

COVID kritums, kas mainīja visu
Atgriezīsimies 2020. gada martā. Pasaule slēdzās ciet, akciju tirgi piedzīvoja brīvu kritumu, un Bitcoin — bieži saukts par "digitālo zeltu" — tika pilnībā iznīcināts. Vienā dienā BTC nokrita no vairāk nekā 8000 USD līdz zem 4000 USD, izdzēšot gandrīz pusi no tā vērtības stundās. Panika bija visur. Sociālajos medijos plūda paziņojumi, ka kriptonauda ir mirusi, ka eksperiments ir izgāzies, ka digitālie aktīvi ir tikpat neaizsargāti kā tradicionālie tirgi.

Sveiki visiem! Es esmu kriptovalūtu jomā jau gadiem ilgi, un, ja ir kaut kas, ko esmu iemācījies, tas ir, ka tirgi pārvietojas noteiktos modeļos — ne tikai cenu modeļos, bet arī emocionālajos. Ļaujiet man izskaidrot, ko esmu novērojis un kas varētu notikt nākamajos mēnešos.
Tirgus kustību psiholoģija
Vai jūs zināt to sajūtu, kad Bitcoin sasniedz jaunu augstāko punktu un pēkšņi visi kļūst par kriptovalūtu ekspertiem? Vai kad cenas krīt un jūsu grupu tērzēšanas paliek pilnīgi klusas? Tas nav nejauši. Tirgus virza cilvēku emocijas, un šo izpratne var būt jūsu lielākā priekšrocība.

Kriptovalūtu tirgus ir pazīstams ar savu svārstīgumu, kas ir gan iespēja, gan izaicinājums investoriem un entuziastiem. Izpratne par kriptovalūtu tirgus pamat cikliem ir būtiska, lai pieņemtu pārdomātus lēmumus un efektīvi pārvaldītu riskus. Šis raksts pētīs kriptovalūtu tirgus ciklu sarežģījumus, to fāzes un to, kā dalībnieki var tos pārvarēt.
📌Kas ir kriptovalūtu tirgus cikli?
Kriptovalūtu tirgus cikli ir atkārtotas cenu kustību shēmas, ko nosaka ekonomiskie, tehnoloģiskie un psiholoģiskie faktori. Šie cikli parasti tiek sadalīti četrās fāzēs:

Kāpēc altkoīni joprojām ir kritušies, kamēr BTC tuvojas ATH? Ja jūs nopirkāt augstāko punktu, šeit ir tas, ko darīt tagad:
Daudzi tirgotāji, kuri ieguldīja altkoīnos 2024. gada decembra troksnī, tagad saskaras ar lieliem zaudējumiem 60% līdz 80% kritumiem, lai gan Bitcoin klauvē pie jauna visu laiku augstāka līmeņa.
Tātad, kas patiesībā notiek?
Izanalizēsim kriptovalūtu tirgus ciklu, lai saprastu, kurā fāzē mēs pašlaik atrodamies un kas nāk tālāk:
Kriptovalūtu tirgus rotācijas fāzes:
Fāze 1 — Bitcoin dominances sacensība
$BTC vadošais tirgu
Iestādes dod priekšroku "drošībai" BTC

Kamēr tirgus diskutē par bailēm un euforiju, viena entitāte paliek stingra: Stratēģija (iepriekš MicroStrategy), lielākais korporatīvais Bitcoin kasieris pasaulē.

Kopš 2020. gada, Michael Saylor vadībā, uzņēmums ir pārvērtis savu bilanci par tiešu likmi uz decentralizēto monetāro nākotni.


Četri gadi metodiskas uzkrāšanas
Uzņēmumam šodien pieder 641,205 BTC, iegādāti vidēji par $74,057 par vienību.

Pēdējā pirkšana —397 BTC par $114,771— palielina viņa kopējo ieguldījumu līdz $47.4 miljardiem, ar pašreizējo novērtēto vērtību $64.9 miljardiem.