🟢 Dollar Remains King Until 2046, Bitcoin’s Reserve Dreams Stall
Despite growing institutional adoption, Bitcoin faces a long road to becoming a global reserve currency. IMF data shows the U.S. dollar still dominates global reserves, with $12.94 trillion in total foreign-exchange holdings in 2025 Q2, and USD accounting for 56.32%. Analysts model a realistic Bitcoin “reserve-currency primacy” scenario around the mid-2040s.
Key Facts:
• USD dominance: 56.32% of allocated global reserves; Euro 20.06%, Renminbi 2.12%
• Treasury backbone: ~$30.3 trillion in U.S. Treasurys outstanding; ~$1.047 trillion average daily trading volume
• Two-step Bitcoin path:
Reserve-asset adoption as a portfolio diversifier
Full reserve-currency primacy for invoicing, settlement, and collateral
• Institutional experiments: Project Agorá (BIS) and Citi stablecoin outlooks explore tokenized cross-border settlements
Expert Insight:
Even with rapid private adoption, entrenched dollar usage, invoicing conventions, and central-bank practices make a decade-scale flip to Bitcoin as the dominant reserve currency highly challenging. The dollar’s network effects and Treasury-backed infrastructure remain nearly impossible to displace quickly.
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