s2f
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This is the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model by @100trillionUSD, calculating scarcity of Bitcoin, which has historically done a decent job at calling tops, and in some cases, bottoms for #Bitcoin.
The key metric here is the model variance, when it goes above 1.5, it typically marks a cycle top. Variance measures how far #BTC’s actual price deviates (above or below) from the model’s projected value.
Right now, the model's suggested price is around $338K, which means for variance to exceed 1.5, BTC would need to reach slightly above $500K.
That might sound unrealistic, and maybe it is. But the same was said in 2013, 2017, and even 2019, when BTC far exceeded expectations, often doing 1.5x of what the model suggested.
Still, we need to stay rational, this is just one model. It might hold up this cycle, or it might break.
#cryptouniverseofficial #S2F
The key metric here is the model variance, when it goes above 1.5, it typically marks a cycle top. Variance measures how far #BTC’s actual price deviates (above or below) from the model’s projected value.
Right now, the model's suggested price is around $338K, which means for variance to exceed 1.5, BTC would need to reach slightly above $500K.
That might sound unrealistic, and maybe it is. But the same was said in 2013, 2017, and even 2019, when BTC far exceeded expectations, often doing 1.5x of what the model suggested.
Still, we need to stay rational, this is just one model. It might hold up this cycle, or it might break.
#cryptouniverseofficial #S2F
新しいビットコイン S2F モデル (ストック・トゥ・フロー) ツールは現在開発中であり、スクリーンショット機能を備えたインタラクティブ チャートとして今月後半にリリースされる予定です。
S2F は、ビットコインの希少性を評価し、既存の供給量と年間生産率の比率を計算することでビットコインの価値を予測する価格モデルです。
#s2f #stocktoflow #bitcoins2f
S2F は、ビットコインの希少性を評価し、既存の供給量と年間生産率の比率を計算することでビットコインの価値を予測する価格モデルです。
#s2f #stocktoflow #bitcoins2f
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