🙀 No Rate Cuts Until Mid-Year? The Market Wasn’t Ready for This
Latest report from Bloomberg basically says one thing — the Federal Reserve is not in hurry at all. January cuts are off the table, and mid-year now looks like the earliest realistic timing.
The reason is simple. Jobs data is still strong. As long as people are working and labor market holds up, the Fed doesn’t feel forced to act. For rate cuts to come earlier, CPI data needs to show real cooling, not just small improvement. Right now, inflation isn’t weak enough to change the Fed thinking.
This is where the confusion comes in.
Recently, Fed Governor Stephen Miran said he would like to see around 150 bps of rate cuts this year. That sounded bullish and gave many people hope. But this kind of comment fully depends on future data. It’s not a promise, and it’s not saying cuts are coming soon.
So the market is hearing two different things at same time. Data says wait, while some Fed voices say cuts later if things improve. That’s why everything feels stuck right now. Not weak, not strong — just paused.
👉 Here’s my take. If you are trading just because a chart looks good in this phase, that’s honestly the worst thing you can do. When the bigger picture isn’t clear, technical setups don’t hold. Moves start and then fade. That’s not bad luck, that’s missing context.
Nothing is broken. Nothing is crashing. Expectations are just getting pushed back.
Until CPI clearly weakens or the Fed speaks with one clear voice, this is a waiting phase. The real move will come when data forces it, not when impatience takes over.
Guys, posting CPI leak today. Follow Meow if you don’t want to be late again.
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