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Market Wave Structure

​We are finishing an ABC Corrective Cycle following the $126,198 All-Time High (Oct 2025).

​Current Wave: We are in a Wave B relief bounce or a potential new Wave 1 impulse.​The Fork: If we break $95,200, the correction is over, and we target $104,500 (Wave 3). If we fail here, a Wave C "Final Flush" to $84k–$86k is likely to clear remaining retail leverage.
​2. Buyer vs. Seller Behavior

​Sellers (The Wall): Heavy resistance at $94,800. This is the "break-even" zone for traders who bought the 2025 top. Sellers are defending this to exit positions without loss.​Buyers (The Floor): Solid institutional absorption at $90,500.​Risk: The 1.65 Long/Short ratio shows retail is heavily "long." This creates a "liquidity pool" that whales often hunt with a quick "fake-out" dip to $89k before a real move up
​3. Fundamental "Fuel" (Jan 2026 Context)
​The Powell/DOJ Conflict: Fed Chair Powell’s clash with the DOJ and Trump’s administration regarding Fed independence has weakened the USD, making BTC a primary safe-haven asset.
​Whale Activity: MicroStrategy just confirmed the purchase of 13,627 BTC ($1.2B) at a $75k average. This provides massive psychological support—the "big money" isn't selling; they are accumulating.
​ETF Momentum: New filings from Morgan Stanley and a shift in VanEck’s risk models are keeping buy-side liquidity high despite the recent "bear market" sentiment from the Fall.
​4. The Signal Summary
​Bullish Trigger: A 4-hour candle close above $95,200 with rising volume.​Target: $104,500 (Short-term) | $126,000+ (Macro).​Invalidation: A daily close below $89,800 (Signals a deeper drop to $84k)$BTC