The US national debt just crossed $38 trillion and honestly, the number is so big most people barely react anymore.

But the pace is what should catch your attention.

Back in 2000, debt was around $5.7 trillion. After the financial crisis it doubled. Post pandemic stimulus pushed it past $30 trillion. Now we are adding roughly $1 trillion every 100 days.

At some point the focus stops being the size of the debt and shifts to the cost of carrying it.

Interest payments are exploding and are on track to rival, even surpass, defense spending if rates stay elevated. That is not a small budget line item anymore, it is becoming structural.

This creates a few pressure points.

More Treasury supply means more bonds flooding the market.

Higher yields are needed to attract buyers.

And suddenly equities have real competition from “risk free” returns.

We have already seen what happens when the 10 year spikes. Growth stocks feel it first, multiples compress, and liquidity tightens across the board.

The US can probably sustain large debt for longer than people expect, mainly because the dollar still sits at the center of the system.

But the real question is not “can it survive?”

It is where the bond market starts pushing back.

At what yield do stocks stop treating this as background noise and begin repricing structurally?

Feels less like an immediate crisis and more like a slow burn risk that markets cannot ignore forever.

Curious where people stand on this

Is this just part of the new normal, or the kind of pressure that eventually forces a bigger reset?