moneroanalysis

Monero XMR dropped slightly over the weekend. From Friday’s high near 419 dollars the price fell about four percent. The drop happened near the 418 dollar level which has acted as strong resistance over the past six weeks.
Last week forecasts suggested that XMR could reach 420 or even 450 dollars after testing 360 dollars as support. That movement has mostly played out. But after facing resistance near 420 dollars traders are now watching to see if the price can keep rising or fall back toward lower levels.
Looking at the charts the weekly view shows Monero in a bullish swing. A dip below 367 dollars was defended by buyers which led to the rebound toward 419 dollars. The momentum indicator RSI also pointed to strength with a reading near 59. This suggested that bulls were still in control.
However one key metric told a different story. The volume based indicator OBV showed lower highs over the past seven months. This means that even as price rose demand was weakening. It signals that the rally may not be sustainable if buying pressure does not return.
On the shorter four hour chart the structure still leaned bullish but signs of weakness were appearing. The RSI fell below 50 showing a shift toward bearish momentum. The OBV also fell below the previous low pointing to increasing selling pressure. Because of this the next support around 395 dollars looks likely to be tested soon.
For traders the psychological 400 dollar level is very important. If buyers can hold it a short term recovery might be possible. A rise in Bitcoin above 90 thousand dollars could also help boost confidence in Monero and support a bounce.
Those already in long positions may consider taking profits. The rejection at 420 dollars confirmed that bulls do not have enough strength to push toward 450 dollars at the moment. A sustained uptrend is not yet visible. Current evidence suggests that a drop below 400 dollars is possible and the next clear support levels are 395, 380 and the 360 dollar demand zone.
Traders might wait for Bitcoin to climb back above 94000 dollars before adding new long positions. This could provide extra momentum for XMR and make the risk of a rebound lower.
In short Monero faces a mix of bullish and bearish signals. Price has bounced from key levels but demand appears weak. OBV shows declining buying pressure and momentum indicators point to short term selling. Holding 400 dollars is critical but traders should be cautious and wait for broader market support before taking new long positions.
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