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Bitcoin's price began its bear market 126 days ago and last week it reached a 52% drawdown from its all-time high of $126,000. Is this enough to conclude that the cyclical bear market is over?

👉In a cyclical bear market for Bitcoin, there are two aspects to consider:

The price aspect, the drawdown, and the bear market structure;

⚠️The time aspect, meaning the total duration of the bear market before it resumes a cyclical bullish phase.

Naturally, the market doesn't go directly from a falling phase to a new bullish phase. Bitcoin's history consistently shows a long accumulation phase lasting several months, essentially building a technical foundation for a healthy upward move.

Have we already entered this sideways accumulation phase? It's possible from the perspective of the drawdown and the three-wave structure of the decline, but it's still unlikely in terms of time, as 126 days is still a relatively short period.

Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) involves gradually investing a fixed sum at regular intervals, regardless of the price. This approach smooths the initial investment, reduces the impact of volatility, and, most importantly, avoids emotional decisions, which are particularly common during bear markets.

Applied to Bitcoin, DCA is most effective during advanced drawdown phases, when pessimism prevails and long-term indicators have entered oversold territory. Historically, areas of 50% to 70% drawdown from the previous peak have often been very favorable accumulation zones for patient investors.

From a quantitative perspective, logarithmic regression and price quantile models currently place the $50,000/$60,000 zone within the lower bands of relative valuation, consistent with a cyclical undervaluation phase. These levels also correspond to major support levels formed during the previous expansion phase, reinforcing their technical credibility.

There is no evidence to suggest that last week's low of $60,000 is the final bottom of the bear market, and it is entirely possible that this level will be revisited in the coming months. However, most long-term BTC forecasting models, such as the power law-based quantile model, describe the $50,000/$60,000 zone as an area where a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy has a high probability of being successful in the long run.

Finally, the time frame remains key. Bitcoin bear markets have rarely been short-lived. They are most often characterized by alternating technical rebounds, frustrating sideways phases, and late capitulations, and on average, they have lasted 12 months, which brings us to September/October. It is precisely in this context of patience that Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) becomes so relevant, allowing investors to gain exposure without trying to anticipate the perfect low in terms of price and time.

In conclusion, the $50,000 to $60,000 range does not guarantee that the bear market is over, but it represents a coherent zone for gradual accumulation for medium- and long-term investors.

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The 2021 Bitcoin peak of approximately $69,000 remains a psychological scar for many investors. For those who went "all-in" at that exact moment, the portfolio has spent a long time in the red—or "underwater." However, a closer look at the data reveals a much more optimistic story for the disciplined investor.
The Pitfalls of "Lump-Sum" Timing
The biggest risk in crypto isn't just volatility; it’s the temptation to catch the lightning in a bottle. Buying a large amount during a bull market mania often leads to:
Emotional Stress: Watching a major investment drop 50% or more.
Liquidity Traps: Being unable to sell without taking a massive loss.
Missed Opportunities: Having no capital left to buy when prices actually bottom out.
The DCA Advantage: Smoothing the Ride
Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA)—the practice of investing a fixed amount at regular intervals regardless of price—acts as a hedge against your own bad timing. As shown in the chart, a weekly purchase strategy started at the $69K peak would have drastically different results than a single purchase.
Lowering the Average: By buying weekly, you accumulate more Bitcoin when the price is low ($16K–$25K range) and less when it is high.
Mathematical Resilience: Over time, your "breakeven" price drops significantly below that initial $69K entry point.
Removing the Guesswork: You no longer need to predict "the bottom." You simply let the math work for you.
The Bottom Line
The chart proves that you don't need to be a market wizard to find success in Bitcoin. Even if your timing is "worst-case scenario" (buying at a multi-year peak), a consistent, small-scale accumulation strategy can turn a losing position into a winning one much faster than waiting for the price to simply "return to normal."