Headline: Macro risk returns — Supreme Court tariff ruling threatens to puncture CPI-driven Bitcoin rally The market’s mood swung sharply this week after US inflation data (CPI) came in softer than expected. Traders reacted fast: more than $500 million in short positions were liquidated in what analysts are calling the largest short squeeze since October’s crash. Bitcoin surged 4.57%, closing the day near $95,000 — levels unseen since mid-November — as classic sweep dynamics played out across exchanges (source: TradingView, BTC/USDT). But the key question now is whether the move has real staying power. Technically, BTC had spent almost seven weeks consolidating around $90k before breaking higher into the $95k band — a textbook post-range expansion. Still, market structure observers warn a clean V-shaped recovery is unlikely. A fresh macro wildcard complicates the picture: the US Supreme Court’s expected tariff ruling on January 14 could shave government revenues and spark a significant “fiscal shock.” Matt Mena, Crypto Research Strategist at 21Shares, told AMBCrypto, “This Wednesday’s expected Supreme Court ruling on federal tariff authority will be a massive volatility driver for both the dollar and risk assets.” He added that progress on the GENIUS and CLARITY Acts — now moving toward critical Senate votes — could deliver the regulatory clarity and institutional “seal of approval” needed to fuel the next leg of the crypto bull market. On-chain signals underscore why this setup could get bumpy. Analysts say Bitcoin’s recent gains look more derivatives-driven than spot-led. CoinMarketCap noted that aside from MicroStrategy (MSTR), most BTC-driven access vehicles and corporate buyers have pulled back, leaving institutional corporate demand on the sidelines. CryptoQuant highlighted mounting pressure on support levels as new whale cohorts accumulate at a loss; the unrealized profit ratio has dipped below zero for the first time since May 2022 — a condition that previously preceded an almost 70% drawdown. That said, a repeat of a 70% collapse seems unlikely to many observers because ETF inflows and record-low exchange reserves continue to provide a baseline of support. Mena framed the current repricing thesis this way: “Bitcoin is being repriced as an international reserve that remains indifferent to sovereign border disputes. This ‘neutrality’ is being reinforced by record-low exchange reserves and a steady return of ETF inflows, which are effectively floor-pricing the asset regardless of short-term rate volatility.” Still, the confluence of elevated speculative flows, thin spot accumulation, and the looming tariff decision means volatility could spike and quickly unwind the CPI-fueled optimism. For now, Bitcoin’s rally faces a genuine test: sustained momentum will likely require stronger spot demand or clarifying regulatory wins in Washington. Disclaimer: AMBCrypto's content is informational and not investment advice. Trading, buying, or selling cryptocurrencies is high risk — do your own research before making decisions. © 2026 AMBCrypto. Sources: TradingView (BTC/USDT), CoinMarketCap, CryptoQuant, 21Shares/AMBCrypto. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news

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