#USIranStandoff The current US–Iran standoff is best understood not as a discrete crisis, but as a brittle system under stress. In brittle systems, stability does not erode gradually. It fails suddenly when pressure crosses unseen thresholds.The February 2026 US–Iran talks in Oman take place within a configuration that has repeatedly produced miscalculation. Diplomatic engagement is unfolding in parallel with visible military signaling. When diplomacy and force posture move simultaneously, leaders do not interpret actions in isolation. They interpret them as intent. Assumptions harden quickly under uncertainty. Time for verification, internal debate, and measured response compresses. Even when neither side seeks war, this configuration increases the probability that routine actions trigger unintended escalation.

Iran’s Internal Constraint and Regime Perception

Iran’s internal posture further narrows the corridor for controlled de-escalation. The regime is operating under an acute domestic threat. The scale and speed of the January 2026 crackdowns signal insecurity at the core of the system. Under these conditions, Iranian leadership interprets US movements through a regime survival lens. Deterrence appears indistinguishable from preparation for attack. This is not theoretical. Fragile regimes under pressure assume hostile intent, discount reassurance, and favor actions that preserve perceived leverage.

U.S. Posture and Negotiating Rigidity

U.S. posture introduces its own structural rigidity. Public negotiating objectives span nuclear capability, missile programs, regional proxies, and human rights. Iran rejects this scope outright. Misalignment exists before substantive negotiations begin. When the gap between stated objectives is wide, talks function as staging mechanisms rather than settlement mechanisms. At the same time, coercive measures paired with diplomacy raise the political cost of compromise. They also elevate domestic expectations of visible outcomes. This creates an incentive problem. Leaders gravitate toward actions