š¦¢ā« GLOBAL BLACK SWAN SCENARIO ā ALL ASSETS IMPACTED ā«š¦¢
š 1. THE EVENT (THE SHOCK)
ā¢ Completely unexpected: war escalation, major bank failure, sovereign default, global cyber outage šØ
ā¢ Happens outside normal models š
ā¢ News spreads instantly ā algorithms react before humans š¤ā”
ā¢ Confidence collapses in hours, not days š±
š 2. MARKET REACTION (SELL EVERYTHING)
First rule: sell first, think later ā
š Stocks
ā¢ Massive gap-down opens š„
ā¢ Circuit breakers triggered š“
ā¢ Strong companies fall with weak ones
š£ Crypto
ā¢ Extreme volatility šŖļø
ā¢ Forced liquidations cascade š§Ø
ā¢ Funding spikes negative š
šŖ Gold
ā¢ Drops initially ā¬ļø
ā¢ Sold to meet margin calls šø
ā¢ Later becomes safe haven (phase 2) š”ļø
š Bonds
ā¢ Safe bonds sold at first š
ā¢ Yields spike violently ā”
ā¢ Credit spreads explode š„
ā¢ Weak governments face stress
š± FX
ā¢ USD liquidity squeeze šµš„
ā¢ Emerging markets crash harder š
ā¢ Sudden de-pegs possible ā
š§ 3. LIQUIDITY CRISIS (THE REAL DAMAGE)
ā¢ Bid-ask spreads widen š
ā¢ Order books thin š«„
ā¢ Slippage extreme ā ļø
ā¢ āNo buyersā moments šØ
ā¢ Correlation across assets ā 1.0 š
š¦ 4. SYSTEMIC STRESS
ā¢ Banks tighten lending ā
ā¢ Hedge funds face margin calls šØ
ā¢ Exchanges pause trading š§
ā¢ Withdrawal delays or limits š«
ā¢ Counterparty risk explodes ā ļø
š§ 5. PSYCHOLOGY (PURE PANIC)
ā¢ Fear dominates logic šµ
ā¢ Social media amplifies chaos š±š„
ā¢ Rumors move markets š£ļø
ā¢ Long-term investors forced to sell š
ā³ 6. AFTERMATH
ā¢ Central banks intervene š¦
ā¢ Emergency rate cuts š
ā¢ Liquidity injections šØļø
ā¢ Bailouts / guarantees announced š”ļø
š”ļø 7. SURVIVAL RULES
ā¢ Cash = survival oxygen š
ā¢ Low or zero leverage ā ļø
ā¢ Smaller position size
ā¢ Opportunity comes after panic
ā« A black swan cannot be predicted ā only survived.
