macro

По текущим прогнозам:
➖ С вероятностью ~83% демократы могут забрать Палату представителей США
➖ Шансы удержания Сената республиканцами снизились до ~60%
Если баланс власти сместится, давление на Дональд Трамп резко усилится.
А дальше начинается политическая турбулентность.
Но давай трезво.
📌 Импичмент — это политическая процедура, а не автоматический сценарий.
📌 Даже при контроле Палаты представителей это не гарантирует отстранения без Сената.
📌 Рынки закладывают риски заранее — иногда с перегибом.
Дополнительный фактор — внешний фон.
Без деэскалации конфликта в Украине и без роста фондовых индексов давление на администрацию будет усиливаться.
Исторически просадки рынков бьют по рейтингу сильнее, чем риторика.
Но важно понимать:
рынок часто переоценивает политические риски в моменте.
А потом также быстро их “разгружает”.
Политика — это шум.
Капитал — это расчёт.
Вопрос не в том, будет ли волатильность.
Вопрос — кто на ней заработает.
#TRUMP #USPolitics #Macro #CryptoMarket #MISTERROBOT
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They’ve run out of road.
For decades, developed nations have played the same quiet game: Debase the currency by 2% per year, expand cheap credit, inflate asset prices, and kick the can further down the road.
But now the numbers are no longer hiding.
The United States national debt is approaching $39 trillion.
We’re adding roughly $1 billion in debt every few hours.
This isn’t linear anymore.
This is exponential.
And when debt approaches the “knee” of the curve, it turns predatory.
Governments stop pretending.
They start hunting for new revenue streams.
And that resource is no longer corporations.
It’s you.
🇳🇱 The Netherlands Just Showed the Blueprint
This week, the Netherlands moved forward with a proposal to tax unrealized gains — at a rate of 36%.
Let that sink in.
You don’t sell. You don’t cash out. You don’t realize profit.
But if your assets appreciate on paper, you owe tax anyway.
Example:
If $BTC moves from $70,000 to $100,000:
That’s a $30,000 paper gain.
At 36%, you owe over $10,000 — even if you never sold a single sat.
So what happens?
You’re forced to liquidate part of your position just to pay tax on gains you never realized.
And if the market crashes before the payment date?
Too bad.
The tax is calculated from the higher valuation.
A real gain can become a real loss.
This policy is scheduled to begin in 2028.
It passed with Dutch politicians openly admitting:
“We don’t like it either, but we have to.”
That sentence tells you everything.
🌍 The Next Step: A Global Asset Registry
It doesn’t stop there.
Erica Payne and the “Patriotic Millionaires” recently told the IMF the next phase is needed:
A Global Asset Registry.
They want to “map the money.” They want to define “what is enough.”
But when governments are $40 trillion in the hole, “enough” simply means whatever you have.
The goal isn’t just revenue.
It’s control.
A digital financial panopticon where capital cannot escape.
🎭 The Real Purpose of Modern Taxation
Your taxes haven’t meaningfully reduced deficits in years.
They fund expansion. They service interest. They sustain the debt spiral.
Now we’re seeing the quiet shift:
From taxation for budgeting
To taxation for behavioral control.
Preventing citizens from accumulating enough economic power to question the system.
Limiting economic velocity.
Capping financial sovereignty.
🟠 The Escape Valve: Bitcoin
Thankfully, we live in a different era.
For the first time in history, the most liquid global capital asset is also:
BorderlessMobileCensorship-resistantPermissionless
That asset is Bitcoin.
While fiat systems tighten control, Bitcoin offers exit.
Not rebellion. Not chaos.
Just optionality.
And in a world approaching exponential debt math, optionality is priceless.
The fiat experiment is entering its late stage.
The question is simple:
Will you stay inside the burning house?
Or will you own the keys to the exit?
#Bitcoin #Macro #FiatCrisis #FinancialFreedom #CryptoAnalysis
$BTC $BTC

Russia’s economy is drifting into what can only be described as a “death zone.” The numbers don’t balance the way they used to. For two years, the Kremlin managed a delicate juggling act—redirecting trade, propping up the currency, ramping up wartime production—but that room for maneuver is shrinking.

#GlobalMarket
This isn’t a sudden collapse. It’s a slow suffocation.
Why the “Death Zone”?
The country has shifted fully onto a war footing. On paper, GDP has held up. In reality, much of that output is tied to defense spending, financed by reserves and extraordinary fiscal measures. Growth driven by tanks and artillery is not the same as growth driven by consumer demand or innovation.
Here’s the breakdown:
Crippling Interest Rates
The Central Bank of Russia has pushed interest rates to punishing levels to contain inflation and defend the ruble. At those rates, mortgages stall, business investment freezes, and long-term expansion becomes prohibitively expensive.
Labor Shortages
Mobilization, emigration, and demographic decline have created severe labor gaps. Factories may be funded, but finding skilled workers is increasingly difficult.
The Fiscal Weight of War
A vast share of the federal budget now flows into defense and security. That inevitably crowds out spending on healthcare, education, and civilian infrastructure.
Persistent Inflation
War-driven demand, supply chain disruptions, and currency volatility continue to push prices higher. Printing money to sustain military production while consumer goods remain constrained creates structural imbalances.
Russia is not disappearing tomorrow. It remains a major energy exporter. But the structure of the economy is becoming distorted—consuming future growth to sustain present conflict.
The Counterpoint: Pressure as a Catalyst
Yet history shows that prolonged pressure can also trigger transformation.
1. Industrial Reconfiguration
Cut off from many Western imports, Russia has accelerated domestic production.
Import Substitution
Small and medium enterprises are stepping in to replace foreign suppliers in certain sectors. The results are uneven, but a shift toward local capacity is underway.
Eastern Pivot Infrastructure
New pipelines, rail corridors, and port expansions are strengthening trade links with Asian markets. Over time, this could reorient supply chains and reduce reliance on European demand.
2. A More Defensive Financial System
High interest rates are painful, but they signal a central bank prioritizing currency stability.
Low Sovereign Debt
Compared to many advanced economies, Russia’s debt-to-GDP ratio remains relatively low, offering some fiscal flexibility if conditions stabilize.
Alternative Payment Systems
Efforts to expand digital settlement mechanisms and non-Western financial channels aim to insulate the economy from future sanctions shocks.
3. Human Capital Under Strain
Russia’s workforce faces enormous pressure—but also potential recalibration.
Rising Wages in Key Sectors
Labor shortages have driven up pay in industrial and technical fields, potentially boosting domestic consumption if inflation moderates.
STEM Focus
Heavy investment in military technology is training engineers, programmers, and technicians. In a post-conflict environment, that talent could be redirected toward civilian innovation—if the broader economic climate allows it.
The Silver Lining—or the Crossroads
The “death zone” does not guarantee collapse. It marks a point of extreme stress. The decisive factor will be whether wartime industrial momentum can transition into civilian productivity.
If the conflict settles into a frozen state or diplomatic resolution, Russia could redirect defense capacity toward aerospace, heavy machinery, transport, and dual-use technologies. If oil revenues are channeled into infrastructure and diversification rather than sustained militarization, the country could emerge more self-reliant—though fundamentally changed from its prewar economic model.
Final Verdict
Russia’s economy is not imploding. But it is operating in thin air—expending extraordinary energy to maintain altitude. Whether this period becomes a prolonged stagnation or a pivot toward structural transformation depends less on short-term GDP figures and more on stratees made once the immediate pressures ease.
#Macro #Geopolitics $ETH