Recently, when opening Binance Square or Twitter, the negative sentiment about Ethereum seems to have reached its peak. There are quite a few statements like, 'Ethereum is dead', 'ETH is the biggest stablecoin', 'The king of public chains has changed to Solana'... Let's talk about my views on ETH.
Hello brothers, I am Bear. You've heard the saying, 'In times of trouble, short Ethereum', right? But be careful shorting ETH below 3000; it can teach you a lesson. I'll analyze a few points for you.
First, we must understand a core logic: the huge profits in the market often come from correcting public biases. When everyone is pessimistic about an asset whose fundamentals have not collapsed, the reversal is often just around the corner.
First: ETH/BTC Exchange Rate
The current ETH/BTC exchange rate has retraced to the bottom of a historical support zone lasting two years. If you open the weekly chart, you'll find it resembles a spring compressed to the extreme. In the historical cycles of the crypto market, the plot is always remarkably similar: Bitcoin charges ahead, draining market liquidity and setting new highs first; then funds begin to overflow, with Ethereum taking over to catch up, leading to a strong rebound in the exchange rate.
Currently, we are at a critical point transitioning from the first phase to the second phase.
Second: Supply Crisis
Beneath the appearance of weak prices, on-chain data clearly shows some information.
The amount of ETH in centralized exchanges is hitting new lows in recent years, so where has the crypto gone? They are locked in staking contracts, bridged to Layer 2, or held within DeFi protocols. This has led to an obvious yet overlooked consequence: liquidity depletion.
This means that once market sentiment warms up, or if the buying from the spot ETF accelerates slightly, there isn't enough 'floating supply' in the market to meet the demand. This 'mismatch of supply and demand' is the most solid fuel for a price surge. The current market looks weak because buyers are on the sidelines, not because selling pressure is particularly strong. The main capital is quietly completing the final accumulation during this dull market.
Third: The 'Heir Apparent' Competition between SOL and ETH
SOL is more like a bustling Las Vegas casino, attracting a lot of retail traffic and meme speculative funds. But if you look further ahead, you'll find that Ethereum remains the 'CBD financial center' in the eyes of Wall Street.
Just look at BlackRock's choice; when the world's largest asset management company decided to issue a tokenized fund, where did they choose? It was Ethereum. When stablecoin giants need the safest settlement layer, where do they choose? Still Ethereum.
When funds shift from mere speculation to seeking stable returns and asset accumulation, the most important thing for large capital is safety.
Fourth: BMNR Micro-strategy Cost Price
Currently, the cost price of Ethereum micro-strategy BMNR is around 3050. Below this price, you are entering late; you already know this, and there's no need to elaborate further. Retail investors are entering late compared to institutions; there's nothing more to say. The market rally still depends on institutional actions, and you just need to be aware of this.
The hardest part of trading is not selecting coins, but waiting.
Building positions in the right spots and dollar-cost averaging; hesitant to buy ETH at 2900, but ready to strike hard at 4900. This is just like the current situation with precious metals. I believe there are quite a few who are chasing after gold; no one knows when it will collapse, but everyone is betting they won't be the last one holding the bag.
In this fast-paced market, everyone is restless; patience is a precious commodity, and I hope you have it.
