Hedera's recent price movements are struggling to draw investor confidence. HBAR has not been able to maintain a meaningful rebound.
Expectations were high for the launch of the HBAR exchange-traded fund. However, the token's modest performance reflects a trend commonly seen in the cryptocurrency market. This case is increasingly resembling the classic outcome of 'buy on rumor, sell on news.'
HBAR ETF…disappointing story
The Canary HBAR ETF has emerged as one of the weakest-performing products among cryptocurrency exchange-traded products (ETPs) since its listing. Around the end of October, during its launch, this product received significant interest, with cumulative inflows reaching approximately $30 million at one point. However, that momentum quickly faded and has not continued steadily since.
According to the latest data, this ETF recorded only $875,000 in net inflows. On most trading days, net inflows remained at zero. This pattern shows the movements of speculative positions before the launch. Once the ETF was listed, early participants realized profits, leading to continuous selling pressure. The approval itself did not lead to any substantial new demand.
The effect of the ETF was more symbolic than a mere influx of funds. The Canary ETF raised awareness, but it did not meaningfully create new demand for spot HBAR. Without strong trading volume backing it, the price failed to maintain key technical support levels and the decline accelerated.
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Technical indicators also support a cautious perspective. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which indicates fund movement, is falling below zero. Historically, when the CMF has dropped like this, HBAR has often experienced bearish price periods. This is because outflows have begun to dominate over inflows.
This movement reveals that the interest from institutions and whales remains unstable. When funds exit Hedera, price reactions often occur quickly. If the CMF continues to decline, it may signal an additional distribution phase. If this trend continues, attempts to rise will be limited, and rebounds may also face constraints.
Since the launch of the HBAR ETF, the token price has fallen by about 41%. At the time of writing, it dropped from approximately $0.200 to about $0.117. This decline exposes the gap between expectations and actual demand. Subsequently, HBAR has entered a correction phase after each sharp drop, reflecting market uncertainty.
There is a high likelihood of a similar box range development emerging now. HBAR is consolidating between the resistance level of $0.131 and the support level of $0.113. If selling pressure increases and outflows grow, a drop below $0.113 may occur. In this case, $0.104 would become the next target for decline, and $0.096 would serve as a stronger support level.
A reversal upward depends on a change in fund flow. If outflows stop and market sentiment improves, HBAR could find a bottom near $0.113 and rebound. If it clearly breaks through $0.131, expectations for a rebound will increase. If it approaches $0.150, the bearish scenario will be neutralized, and investor sentiment may revive.
