#加密市场观察 $币安人生 The Vice President of the Trump administration spoke frankly: if mainland China recovers Taiwan, the United States will face an economic depression. And what's the solution? One is missiles, the other is chips. Patriot missiles ensure 'security,' while TSMC chips ensure 'economy.' On the surface, these are two separate lines, but in reality, they form a single web—a strategic net tightly binding Taiwan through both economic and military interdependence.

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So why does the U.S. panic about economic depression if China reclaims Taiwan? The core isn't Taiwan's value—it's that Taiwan holds the key to the U.S. high-tech industry: TSMC.

For decades, the U.S. has focused exclusively on finance and virtual economies, offshoring real manufacturing. Chip manufacturing, in particular, has been hollowed out completely.

In the past, the U.S. could produce 37% of the world's chips, but now it's down to just 12%. The rest is concentrated in East Asia—Taiwan alone accounts for 22% of global capacity, and all of it is top-tier.

The U.S. doesn't even have a single 7nm fabrication plant, let alone advanced 5nm or 3nm facilities—precisely the technologies that power smartphones, artificial intelligence, and missile radars, all of which depend entirely on TSMC for production.

U.S. chip companies may look strong, holding 47% of global sales, but 88% of their designed chips are manufactured overseas. TSMC is their most indispensable foundry—like handing their 'heart' to someone else.

If China reclaims Taiwan, TSMC naturally becomes a Chinese enterprise, and the U.S. will find it much harder to access advanced chips.

This isn't just about losing a few shipments—it would choke off the entire U.S. high-tech industry. Chips aren't something you can manufacture in any random factory. Building the most advanced wafer fab requires over $10 billion in investment and three years to come online. Even if built, there's no guarantee the chips produced will be of acceptable quality.

For years, the U.S. has been shouting about revitalizing domestic manufacturing. Biden signed the CHIPS Act offering subsidies, but the funds haven't even been distributed yet. TSMC's factory construction in the U.S. has been repeatedly delayed—originally slated for completion next year, now pushed to 2025 with no certainty, and the second facility won't even start until after 2027.

It's not that TSMC doesn't want to build—it's that the U.S. lacks enough skilled workers and cannot assemble a complete supply chain. Construction takes twice as long as in Taiwan, and costs 30% to 50% more, making it impossible to compete with Asian production capacity.

The U.S. knows full well that in the short term, there's no viable alternative to TSMC. Their attempts to form joint ventures with TSMC, force additional investments, and even have Taiwan train American workers all come down to one goal: seizing TSMC's technology and production capacity.

TSMC's total assets are just over $200 billion, yet Trump demanded $200 billion in investment—this is nothing short of robbery.

Taiwan is so deeply dependent on TSMC that this single company accounts for 20% of Taiwan's GDP, 40% of its exports, and consumes 10% of the island's power generation. Other industries have been squeezed out of any room to survive.

Regardless, the U.S. only focuses on pulling TSMC into its own orbit—threatening tariffs, offering subsidies—essentially treating Taiwan as a tool to extract industrial value.

At this point, it's clear that Vance's talk of missiles and chips reveals two cards that are actually interwoven into a single net.

Military-wise, they deploy Patriot missiles, claiming it's for security—but really, it turns Taiwan into a frontline outpost to contain China, pressuring Taiwan to buy outdated U.S. weapons and raising defense spending from 2.5% to 3% of GDP, which still isn't enough.

Economically, they hold TSMC in their grip—extracting high-end production capacity while forcing Taiwan to invest real money in the U.S., effectively making Taiwan pay two 'protection fees': one for industry, relocating the 'Mountain God' to America; another for military, buying America's 'security promise'.

The DPP authorities are complicit, claiming TSMC's move to the U.S. is voluntary, then immediately helping the U.S. build tech parks and train workers—effectively handing over Taiwan's entire economic foundation.

The U.S. fears economic depression because it knows its hegemonic foundation is shaky. High-tech industries are the core of America's global dominance, and TSMC is the vital nerve center of that core.

Without TSMC's chip supply, the U.S. automotive industry, defense sector, and artificial intelligence fields would all come to a standstill. Boston Consulting has already calculated that if the U.S. decouples from China technologically, semiconductor companies would lose 18% of market share, $37 billion in revenue, and over 10,000 high-skilled jobs.

This is just the direct loss—downstream chain reactions would be even more alarming. Cars can't be built, phones can't be updated, missiles lack core components. These disruptions would spread through the economy, inevitably leading to recession.

But the U.S. has never considered that tying Taiwan to its war machine and living off the exploitation of others' industries is unsustainable.

Even if TSMC builds factories in the U.S., its core technologies and supply chains remain in Asia. Meanwhile, China's chip production capacity is rapidly rising and is expected to reach 24% of global output soon.

The more the U.S. tries to control Taiwan through military and economic entanglement, the more it exposes its own weakness. If it truly had confidence, why would it cling so tightly to others' industries? If it could truly manufacture advanced chips, why fear China reclaiming Taiwan?

Ultimately, Vance's words expose the logic of hegemony: treating other nations' territories as chess pieces and their industries as hostages. Having caused crises through hollowing out its own industries, the U.S. then blames others for defending their sovereignty.

Taiwan is part of China, and TSMC is ultimately a Chinese industry. The U.S. trying to survive by tying Taiwan to its fate is simply a miscalculation.

This net, woven from missiles and chips, may look strong, but it's fragile—because it contradicts reality and cannot sustain America's hegemonic illusion.

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