According to PANews, a report from Guotai Haitong indicates that the U.S. job market in December continued to experience low hiring and low layoffs. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.4%, interrupting its upward trend. However, the growth in new jobs is slowing, and future annual revisions may further lower these figures.
Despite the unemployment rate not rising further and various employment indicators suggesting a low risk of a sharp downturn in the U.S. job market, the Federal Reserve may still have room to pause interest rate cuts, following three consecutive reductions. CME data shows that after the release of non-farm payroll data, the market anticipates only a 5% probability of a rate cut in January.
Looking ahead to 2026, the market still expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice, but the timing has been postponed to June and September of that year. Future events that could increase expectations for rate cuts include the appointment and statements of the new Federal Reserve Chair.