Brothers! Don't let your hands shake when opening the market software right now! ETH is currently hovering around $3,100, seemingly calm on the surface, but beneath the surface lie two ticking time bombs—breaking below $3,000 will trigger the liquidation of over 902 million long positions, while breaking above $3,200 will ignite 1.125 billion short positions. This isn't just a random slogan from ChainCatcher—it's a real, looming liquidation sword hanging over the major platforms right now! As a veteran who's been through the crypto trenches for 8 years, I can say the current market is even more grueling than the 2021 bull-to-bear transition, and more insidious than the panic after the 2023 FTX collapse, because most people haven't realized that this narrow-range fluctuation hides a life-or-death game: either cut others, or get cut yourself.
First, let me give new investors some干货: liquidation isn't simply 'losing everything'—it's the 'forced harvest' of leveraged trading. If you're long with 10x leverage and ETH drops below your margin threshold, the platform will immediately close your position, and it will be executed at the worst possible price. Your capital vanishes instantly, and these forced liquidation sell orders create a 'snowball effect'—for example, once $3,000 is broken, the initial wave of long liquidations will drive the price even lower, triggering more long liquidations. This is what I often refer to as the 'liquidation waterfall.' Currently, $902 million in long positions are concentrated just below $3,000, meaning this level isn't just a psychological support—it's a 'life-or-death' battleground for bulls and bears. Once broken, a rebound in the short term will be extremely difficult, as a massive amount of long positions have already been forcibly wiped out, causing an immediate shortage of buying pressure.
Now look at the $1.125 billion short positions at $3,200—this volume is even more terrifying than the longs. Why? Because short liquidations are often the spark that ignites a 'short squeeze.' If ETH suddenly breaks above $3,200 with strong volume, short sellers will instantly face margin deficiency. When platforms forcibly close their positions, they must buy large amounts of ETH to repay borrowed assets, creating massive buying pressure that pushes the price even higher. This leads to a 'rising price triggers more liquidations, and more liquidations push the price higher' short squeeze. More critically, market liquidity is already weak—recent data shows overall crypto market liquidity has dropped by over 60% compared to the bull market. The lower the liquidity, the more exaggerated price swings become. A $1.125 billion short liquidation could easily push ETH above $3,300 in the short term. At that point, short sellers can only watch helplessly as their capital evaporates.
My core view is clear: now is not the time to go all-in on a directional bet—it's time to prioritize defense. If you're currently holding long positions, set your stop-loss just below $3,000; don't cling to the hope of a rebound. If you're short, your stop-loss must be placed just above $3,200—otherwise, once the price breaks through, you won't even have a chance to exit. Most importantly, avoid using excessively high leverage—anything above 5x is gambling with your life. With just a small market move, you could easily become another victim of the liquidation wave.
Lastly, let me be honest: at critical junctures like this, it's not about luck—it's about discipline. I've compiled the key liquidation levels for ETH into a table, @链上标哥 #加密市场观察 $BTC
