Is the U.S. targeting Venezuela because of oil? What impact will this swift military action have on the market?

╰┈✦ What are the real reasons behind the U.S. attacking Venezuela?

The U.S. claims that Venezuela is sending drugs to the U.S. Media reports state that the Venezuelan government has declared that the goal of the U.S. attack on Venezuela is for oil and minerals.

Since Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world, most people's first reaction is also oil.

However, although Venezuela has the highest oil reserves, the quality is almost the worst.

▌ Global Oil Gradient Distribution

The higher the API degree (lightness) of crude oil, the lower the sulfur content, the lower the extraction difficulty, and the better the quality of the refined products. The world's crude oil can be divided into several tiers based on quality.

▌ Venezuela's High-Cost Oil

First, the extraction costs are high.

Second, refining costs are high.

Third, the efficiency is low.

The effective portion produced from Venezuela's heavy oil is also relatively low.

Venezuela has some oil resources outside of the Orinoco region, but the quality and extraction environment are similarly not ideal. Imagine if Venezuela's oil quality was ideal and costs were lower, Venezuela could export oil without such severe inflation in its fiat currency.

The U.S. has very good relations with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, especially since Saudi Arabia has the second-largest oil reserves in the world and very low costs. Therefore, the U.S. has no need to covet the high-cost, low-efficiency oil from Venezuela, which could lead to international criticism for attacking Venezuela, making it even less necessary.

▌ Other Reasons for U.S. Targeting Venezuela

Setting aside the cost and quality of oil. If the U.S. wanted Venezuela's oil, it would have acted long ago. After all, the U.S. could capture the President of Venezuela in just a few hours, and the fact that Venezuela has been exporting drugs to the U.S. is not a recent issue.

Therefore, the U.S. action is likely unrelated to Venezuelan oil.

A more significant, deeper reason may be geopolitical factors. Venezuela has a close relationship with CN, and the U.S. considers CN as its biggest competitor.

╰┈✦ The Subsequent Impact May Be Minimal

Due to the high quality and extraction costs of Venezuelan oil, the U.S. is unlikely to extract Venezuelan oil as it did in Iraq, and the global oil supply is expected to remain largely unaffected.