Hedera is entering a dangerous area. In the last four weeks, buying pressure has decreased by almost 90 percent, even though the HBAR price continues to fall. While the larger crypto market aims to stabilize, Hedera shows no similar development on the charts.
Buyers are pulling back instead of taking advantage of cheap opportunities. Now a crash downwards is no longer an exception, but is becoming increasingly likely.
Spot purchases are collapsing – downtrend continues
The HBAR spot market gives the clearest warning.
In the week leading up to November 10, Hedera recorded spot outflows of about 26.7 million USD. This indicates strong purchases, as coins were withdrawn from exchanges. However, in the week leading up to December 15, the figure was only around 2.4 million USD. This is a drop of about 90 percent in buying pressure in just over four weeks.
This is important because the price is already in a falling channel, i.e., in a bearish pattern. When buyers disappear in a downturn, sellers need little strength to push the price further down. This makes the market sensitive and weak.
The Money Flow Index, or MFI, also shows this weakness. The MFI measures how much money flows into or out of an asset by looking at price and volume. In the case of HBAR, the MFI is making lower lows – just like the price – and has now slipped into the oversold area. There is no increase, but rather a continuing downward trend.
This shows that no new purchases occur during price declines. There is therefore little confidence in the price.
Therefore, the HBAR price crash scenario is gaining significance.
If spot demand remains weak and less money flows into the market, it ultimately comes down to the price development of HBAR.
HBAR is currently close to the lower boundary of its falling channel. The first important mark is 0.106 USD. If the price loses this value on a daily basis, the next target would be around 0.095 USD. That would be approximately twelve percent lower than now. Then the downward trend would be confirmed, and even 0.078 USD would be possible.
This would confirm the ongoing downturn and not just a brief pullback.
For the bearish picture to change, much would have to happen with HBAR. The price would need to reclaim several resistance zones and close towards 0.155 USD. Given the strong decline in spot buying and the still weak MFI, this currently seems very unlikely.
The conclusion is clear: With almost no buyers, less money, and an already weak price picture, a crash is now more than just a risk. At the moment, it is even the most likely scenario.
