The Toncoin (TON) ecosystem, with potential access to over a billion users via Telegram, has had a rather gloomy year in 2025. The price of TON has dropped by 65% compared to the peak reached at the beginning of the year.
However, by the end of December, several positive signals have emerged. These signals could form the basis for expectations of a recovery of TON in the first quarter of 2026.
The trading volume and network activity show signs of improvement
First of all, the daily trading volume of TON has significantly increased.
According to Tonscan data, in the third week of December 2025, the daily trading volume of TON had exceeded 154 million dollars. This figure represented an increase of over 41.7%.
This is the highest trading volume level for the month of December. The increase indicates a return of vibrancy in trading after a slowdown due to the negative sentiment that has pervaded the altcoin market.
In recent days, TON has remained above the level of $1.4. The increasing volume, combined with the slowdown in the price drop, signals renewed buying interest.
Another important signal is TON's return to the "trending" list on CoinGecko. This trend reflects renewed interest in searches and exchange demand for TON in December. Additionally, it helps explain the recent increase in trading volume.
On-chain data adds further optimism.
Although the daily active users (DAU) of TON have plummeted compared to 2024, the decline now seems to have stabilized. User activity had previously reached record levels thanks to airdrop and GameFi campaigns.
Data shows that in the last three months, the number of daily active users increased from 70,000 to nearly 100,000. During the same period, the price of TON fell from $3 to $1.4. This divergence suggests a return of confidence. It may also indicate that investors consider TON undervalued.
What awaits Ton in 2026?
At the Blockchain Life 2025 event in October, Pavel Durov – the founder of Telegram – emphasized Telegram's intention to take a more active role in the development of TON's core technology in 2026.
In December, Durov announced the official launch of Cocoon, a decentralized and secure computing network. GPU owners have started earning TON by providing their computing power to the network.
Investors believe that Pavel Durov and Telegram will continue to expand efforts to potentially bring TON to a billion users each month.
"In 2026, Telegram will increase its effort on the development of TON, as Pavel Durov stated, adding that we should expect important announcements. Hoping that 2026 will be a bullish year for the TON ecosystem." – Investor Mr. Satoshik predicted.
Another significant milestone has been recently achieved. Kraken announced support for the xStocks platform.
This integration allows Telegram users to buy, hold, and transfer tokenized US stocks and ETFs directly within the TON Wallet.
"After launching tokenized shares early on Solana and extending to EVM via Ethereum, we have also stepped into TON. With this strategic move, we bring the same winning solution chosen by 50,000 users, who have traded over 13 billion dollars in volume on CEX + DEX, to the native Telegram blockchain." said xStocks.
These developments represent positive signals for investors expecting a recovery of TON. However, it remains challenging to identify the bottom price of TON. Conflicting macroeconomic signals continue to weigh on the overall conditions of the altcoin market.
