This month, I lost 100,000 yuan in the cryptocurrency market, accounting for both speculative losses and staking losses. With the market plummeting, my account assets have shrunk even more. The coins sold earlier were partially bought back after the big drop, which is considered a luck-based improved version of long-term holding. Although the asset value has decreased, I have more coins now. If I had sold during a big rise, then the asset value would have decreased, and I would have fewer coins. If I just held on during a significant drop, then I wouldn't have lost many coins, but the asset value would decrease. Therefore, buying back during a significant drop is a luck-based improved strategy, and its success depends entirely on luck. The best scenario is to have more coins while keeping the asset value unchanged. This is what we often refer to as successfully escaping the peak and buying at the bottom; it requires top luck and the right mindset, which is quite difficult.
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The interaction between people is truly complex; human relationships and social affairs. I can't achieve harmony and understanding, but one careless move, and people will look down on you. Let me tell you about a recent story I encountered.
This guy is someone I met while drinking. He works normally, has a side business, and is involved in the crypto world. He is enthusiastic and articulate. People with this personality type are bound to do well. When we met, he showed me his grid profits, saying that grid profits can double in a year, etc. Actually, I know that grid trading is a strategy with zero expected returns; making money purely depends on market conditions, and has nothing to do with the strategy itself. However, it is the most suitable low-risk strategy for beginners. But since it was our first meeting, I didn't say much. Sometimes I also play grid trading, thinking of making some money through luck, but I don't believe that grid trading can guarantee a specific profit rate in a year. In a big rise, one sells out; in a big drop, one is trapped. No one can escape from grid trading.
Then he showed me the car he bought, saying that he only paid a down payment, and the remaining money would be used for grid trading. After a year, the car would be free to drive. He even made a chart showing how much he could earn after how much time. I could only smile and say that's great. If I directly talked about the essence of grid profits, he wouldn't accept it. If I refuted him, he wouldn't be happy either. He was genuinely eager to show me, so I didn't want to hurt his feelings.
I quickly simulated the personality traits of this friend in my mind: enthusiastic, sociable, smart, good at calculations, and someone who is organized and plans things.
Then he asked me what my hobbies were. I said watching movies, reading web literature, and playing games. He said that's so boring; let's go play Mahjong. Then my classmate next to me immediately added that he can't play, knows nothing, doesn't smoke, gamble, drink, or play Mahjong. He said, then you must have some hobbies. I said, does liking to watch beautiful women count as a hobby? He said yes, women, who doesn't like them? So this guy got interested and started talking about business K in our local county, mentioning one venue after another, discussing various ways to play. Everyone present was looking at him, and he spoke passionately as if he was performing a comedy, vividly explaining the features of playing business K. I was really tempted by what he was saying. The business K I went to before was completely different from what he described. He even suggested that we go play today and asked me not to go home tonight because he was treating me. He said we would stay here today. It was like the characters in Water Margin, enthusiastic to the extreme. I thought he was just showing enthusiasm in front of people, so I politely said, let's skip today; it's not very convenient. Maybe next time.
A few days later, he called me again to help my friend register an account in the crypto world. My friend also wanted to play with cryptocurrencies, but he couldn't register and couldn't get an Apple phone. We met at the restaurant he opened in the mall. He asked his friend to buy some seafood, and I asked why buy seafood. He said there was no seafood in the store, and since you are here as a guest, let's buy some to eat together. What seafood do you like? I said anything is fine. In the end, his friend was late and didn't bring seafood, and he added that eating elsewhere is not clean; it's better to eat something clean in his own store. I said anything is fine, and then he called a classmate of mine to join us for a meal. What to eat and where to eat is not important to me, but I was a bit hesitant about his enthusiastic way of speaking. During this time, he also talked to me about business K, and I felt that he probably doesn't like overly complicated people because he didn't really arrange for seafood or plan to eat at good places in advance. I've experienced many situations like this, and my understanding is that this is just a social habit of his and should not be taken as a genuine service directed at me. I said that it wouldn't work today, maybe next time.
While he went to the bathroom, I casually asked the people around me if they often go to business K. The people around me said no, that they've only been there twice in so many years. At this point, I realized that this guy just invited me out of enthusiasm, which is not important to me, but his level of experience made me feel great. As long as someone performs well in front of me and makes me comfortable, it doesn't matter if he thinks I'm a fool. I believe I cannot provide him with any value, but he provided me with a lot of emotional value. After meeting a few times, chatting and joking, everyone was quite happy. My life is usually boring, and I rarely meet someone so talkative. The emotional value was genuinely filled, and I felt quite good. I don't reject this guy; in fact, I think he's quite nice.
Then we created a group. A few days ago, he came to find me; we met again, and I treated him to a meal. I helped him set up an Apple account, downloaded various software, and we drank a few cups of tea at his house. Then he talked to me about business K, saying he would arrange everything for me, and I would definitely have fun. It seems that not going to business K is not an option. I said, okay, when the cryptocurrency goes up, we will go. If I really let him take me to business K, I feel that I would be looked down upon. Look, socializing between people is complicated. I haven't been to business K in 8 years, and whether I can go or not depends entirely on whether the cryptocurrency rises. If it rises and he still wants to go to business K, I can treat them to play once as a way to give back to him for the emotional value he provided me. If he doesn't mention it, I won't go.
Instead of trying to get something from others, I might as well choose to actively lose something. This way, perhaps it will lead to a good outcome.