On February 18, 2026, the cryptocurrency market continued its recent high volatility pattern, with Bitcoin fiercely contesting the key psychological level of $68,000. The market is undergoing a deep correction since the peak last October, with a cumulative drop of about 40%. Over 110,000 people have been liquidated in the past 24 hours, with a liquidation amount reaching $331 million. The current price trend reflects a dual game of macro liquidity expectation correction and technical support testing, requiring investors to seize structural opportunities under strict risk control.
1. Market Overview
Bitcoin (BTC) today shows typical characteristics of oscillation and recovery. According to HTX market data, Bitcoin briefly broke through the $68,000 threshold, with a 24-hour decline narrowing to 0.74%, indicating that short-term selling pressure has eased somewhat. However, market fragility remains significant, as it previously dipped below $67,000 for a short time, with a drop of 1.64% within one hour, indicating that prices remain vulnerable to liquidity shocks in the absence of sustained buying support.
From a more macro perspective, Bitcoin has entered a one-and-a-half-month adjustment cycle since reaching a peak of $97860 in early 2026. An extreme market occurred on February 6, with a single-day drop to a low of $60074, with an amplitude of 18.7%. Although there was a rebound afterward, the overall pattern shows a weak pattern of "high points moving down, low points testing." As of the close on February 17, Bitcoin was reported at $67494, down about 31% from the year’s high, with a trading volume maintained at $34.8 billion, market participation remains active but lacks direction.
Ethereum (ETH) is also under pressure, with recent volatility even surpassing Bitcoin, briefly dropping nearly 4%, indicating that the altcoin sector is facing greater deleveraging pressure during the adjustment cycle. This "Bitcoin is relatively resilient, while altcoins are deeply correcting" divergence pattern is typically a characteristic of the later stages of a bear market.
2. Key price levels and technical analysis
1. Core support and resistance system
The current market is forming a key decision zone around $68000. This price level has multiple technical significances: it is both a previous dense trading area and a historical key level tested multiple times in March, May, June, July, and October 2024. The repeated crossing of prices in this area reflects the fierce competition among market participants for this valuation center.
On the downside, $60000 has become the biggest pain point in the options market. Deribit data shows that a large number of bearish option positions are concentrated below this price level, and once it effectively breaks down, it could trigger programmatic selling and a chain reaction of long stop-losses. A deeper life line is located around the $58000 200-week moving average, which is an important watershed for long-term trends and has historically been a turning point for both the end of bear markets and the restart of bull markets.
On the upside, the $70000-$72000 range constitutes a strong resistance zone recently. After rebounding to $72206 on February 8, it quickly fell back, indicating that heavy selling pressure exists in this area, requiring significant volume to break through effectively.
2. Volatility and market structure
Recently, the market has shown characteristics of a "high volatility, low trend" volatile market. The extreme market on February 6 (with a single-day amplitude of 18.7%) and the high trading volume in the following days indicate that the market is undergoing a severe deleveraging process. Notably, despite the extreme price fluctuations, Bitcoin has not shown continuous days below key support levels, suggesting that the current adjustment is more likely a mid-term correction within a bull market cycle rather than a trend reversal.
From a time cycle perspective, this round of adjustment has lasted about 45 days, approaching the historical average duration of mid-term corrections. Combined with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy about to face important nodes (the PCE data and GDP initial value will be announced on February 20), the market may be waiting for macro certainty before choosing a direction.
3. Analysis of macro driving factors
1. Federal Reserve policy expectation adjustments
The current core contradiction in the cryptocurrency market lies in the repeated adjustments of liquidity expectations. Previously, the market overestimated the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting path, while recent strong economic data and sticky inflation have made the policy outlook ambiguous. The PCE data (the inflation indicator most closely watched by the Federal Reserve) and the initial GDP value for the fourth quarter, to be announced on February 20, will be key variables determining the tone of the March FOMC meeting.
If PCE data exceeds expectations, it may strengthen the expectation of "high interest rates lasting longer," putting pressure on risk assets; conversely, if the data shows signs of cooling inflation, it may restart rate-cut trading, providing rebound opportunities for the cryptocurrency market. Investors need to closely monitor this event risk.
2. Spot ETF fund flows
According to the data you previously shared, the spot Bitcoin ETF achieved a strong performance with a continuous net inflow of $6.63 billion over five weeks, while BlackRock's cryptocurrency investment portfolio surged from $54.77 billion to $102.09 billion. However, recent ETF fund inflows have clearly slowed down, and there has even been a mild outflow, which explains why prices lack sustained buying support at high levels.
ETF fund flows remain an important window for observing institutional sentiment. If there is a continuous net outflow in the future, it may indicate a cooling of institutional allocation willingness; on the contrary, if funds flow back in during the adjustment process, it will provide validation for bottom building.
3. Market liquidity environment
The changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate control mechanism that you previously mentioned are worth continuous attention. After the December FOMC meeting canceled the daily limit of $500 billion on the standing repurchase (SRP), banks can borrow from the Federal Reserve using government bonds as collateral without restriction, which significantly increases the supply of market liquidity. Although the short-term market is dominated by emotion, the medium-term liquidity environment remains loose, providing underlying support for the valuation recovery of risk assets.
4. Suggested operational strategies
1. Position management principles
Given that the current market is at a critical point of direction selection, a defensive strategy of "pyramid-style gradual accumulation + strict stop-loss" is recommended. The total position should be controlled within the asset allocation framework you previously mentioned—namely, Bitcoin and high-quality mainstream coins accounting for 60-70%, with the remaining 30-40% in the form of gold or cash as a risk hedging anchor.
Single asset exposure should not exceed 20% of total assets to avoid excessive concentration during periods of high uncertainty. In the current market environment, the cash ratio can be appropriately increased to 30%, retaining sufficient tactical flexibility.
2. Bitcoin operational strategy
For short-term traders: Pay attention to the intraday breakout direction of $68000. If it stabilizes at this level and trading volume increases, a light position can be taken long, with target levels at $70000-$72000 and a stop loss set at $66500. If it breaks below $67000 again and cannot recover within an hour, be cautious of the risk of dropping to $60000, at which point positions should be reduced decisively to hedge.
For long-term investors: The current price level has entered the value layout range but should not be heavily invested all at once. It is recommended to adopt a "buy on dips strategy": start building a base below $68000 (30% of planned positions), increase by 30% if it drops to $65000, and by 40% around $60000. This gradual accumulation method can effectively smooth out volatility and avoid being passive in extreme market conditions.
Key risk control level: $60000 is the dividing line between bulls and bears. If the daily close falls below this level, positions should be reduced to below 50%, waiting for clearer support signals around $58000 (200-week moving average). Conversely, if it breaks through $72000 with volume, the adjustment may end, and positions can be increased accordingly.
3. Ethereum and altcoin strategy
Ethereum's recent volatility is higher than Bitcoin's, and the $3000 level (as you previously analyzed as a key psychological level) is facing severe tests. It is recommended to control Ethereum positions within 50% of Bitcoin's, and only consider increasing positions in altcoins after Bitcoin stabilizes.
For other mainstream coins, in the current market environment, priority should be given to allocating blue-chip assets within the top 10 by market capitalization, avoiding the liquidity risks of small and medium market cap tokens. DeFi blue chips and Layer 2 leaders can be considered for Beta allocation, but strict stop-loss lines of 15-20% must be set.
4. Derivatives trading warning
Recent data from the entire network shows that high-leverage trading poses extreme risks in the current volatile market. It is recommended that contract traders keep leverage within 3 times and avoid holding overnight heavy positions before major data releases (such as the February 20 PCE data). In terms of options strategy, consider selling put options in the $60000-$65000 range to express bullish views while collecting premiums, but reserve sufficient margin to respond to extreme market conditions.
The current cryptocurrency market is at the intersection of "macro expectation adjustments" and "technical pattern reconstruction." The battle for $68000 is not only a price game but also a touchstone for market sentiment. In the short term, volatility is expected to remain high, and the macro data on February 20 may become a catalyst to break the balance; in the medium to long term, the substantial easing of the Federal Reserve's liquidity environment and the continuous trend of institutional allocation remain unchanged, and adjustments instead provide rational investors with better entry prices.
In terms of operational strategies, it is recommended to abandon the gambling mentality of "bottom fishing and peak touching," and adopt a prudent approach of "gradual layout, strict risk control, and patient waiting." Remember, in a highly volatile market, surviving longer is more important than making quick profits. Maintain ample cash reserves and wait for trend opportunities after macro certainty increases to take the initiative in the next round of market movements.
Risk warning: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and this analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Please make prudent decisions based on your own risk tolerance, and do not use leverage or borrowed funds for investment. #Strategy增持比特币 #ETH走势分析 #哈佛增持以太坊 #比特币再跌破69000美元 #CFTC主张预测市场联邦专属监管权 $BTC
